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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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I would think that Ida should rank right up there as far as the length of time a hurricane has maintained winds of 100 mph or greater after official landfall.  Ida did make landfall in the swampland and marshy areas that would help maintain the winds and storm structure, but just saying.

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While the chance of impacts are extremely scant, I think it would be well worth it to keep an eye on soon-to-be Larry. Henri's earlier landfall (as pathetic as it was) is a sign that there very much is an atmospheric pattern to allow for such situations. In addition, Larry will have weeks of time over the atlantic to strengthen and grow larger. As of right now all guidance is well out to sea, but there have been consistent West shifts.

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Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended.   Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. 

My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most.  But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. 

Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM    NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time.  The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye.

So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun

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Larry legend is gonna serve up one hell of a swell event .

beaches with SE exposure (Maine /NH, outer cape and islands , parts of RI , down thru mid Atlantic . Should begin to ping Beaches early next week 

Nice long period ground swells with a 5 or so minute wait between sets always surprise a few boaters and swimmers 

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That is now 6 hours of faux eye artifact ... 

ya almost wonder if there are some circumstances where structurally the core will eye-out prior to the hurricane wind threshold.  We've seen it in sat and read it in official statements in the past, "...Primitive eye-like feature..."    Maybe this is the primitive eye on steroids -

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On 9/1/2021 at 9:45 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Some more than others ... but that was a pretty significant shift left among all guidance wrt to Lar' dawg out there late mid range/extended.   Another shift like that, considering also the circulation mode of the hemisphere, may result in la-la range threat for Atlantic Canada. 

My personal index finger rule is that a TC needs to get ~ to the 60 W longitude marker ... along or S of 20 N to have a shot much west of there, and even then, Bermuda seems to steal most.  But that seems to be a 'probability ramp up' requirement to even begin considering EC shenanigans on this side of the imagination. 

Right now, Larry is progged by Euro GFS ....GGEM    NOGEM ... to flop on the polar side of said latitude still some 500 naut miles or more E of 60 W ...but, the trend to move to this 00z mean position by some 800 of that distance is probably plenty of tell that this thing is correcting west in time.  The next aspect is that the mean position needs to get to that benchmark by 96 to 120 hours. If it has not yet done so by that lead model time ...it's likely buh-bye.

So, we'll see if this thing can even get to stage 1 Bun

Just entered my radar, but still not interested.

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12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Of the many hypotheticals regarding Larry is there any suggestion that this would at least move quicker than Henri did if it made a pass up here? If it doesn’t it’s basically another disorganized mess anyway?

Frankly Larry right now in the EATL is already practically as strong as Henri was at it's peak. Conditions look conducive for further strengthening in the near future, despite potential dry air entrainment. In addition, Larry has a far larger circulation, and even if it was in the state Henri was in it would move much more water

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

18z eps  continues the west trend 

Screenshot_20210902-214132_Messenger.jpg

I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster 

Kiss it goodbye. OTS on all Euro Ens. Not even close this run. 

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12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was just looking at the SW shift the ensembles from 18z euro made from 12z. This is interesting now , maybe it stops trending and steam rolls Bermuda, but the trend has many members west of Bermuda and also just initially not gaining as much latitude and being a large system...a monster 

This was never interesting in the least to me...not for a second. I know the trend has reversed, but even before that.

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