SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key to my forecast is that I don't think this has much time to complete an ERC, but even if it does, we will just trade some wind impact for more surge. This one will rank up there.

Yeah ...totally valid as an idea - I don't personally have any on that particular aspect.  "Ida"know what to say,  Lol

That said, the general arena between where Ida is located and NOLA is a deep bath of basically 0 negative/inhibitory factors as far I can tell .. beyond 24 hours from now.  You know, passing over some of the highest oceanic heat content there is on Earth comparing to the world's other oceanic hot spot regions.  

As a sidecar wonder ... I sometimes think NHC is/has become a bit too reliant on modeling, and not really ...or may have lost some 'talent' or ... or perhaps policy forbades but the polish is lax.  I read their discussions and it doesn't seem they elaborate enough on the top side implications.  They do mention some light shear, but the modeling shows that weakening, and should Ida's convective circulation engine become influential, that'll easily supplant that incurring force and make it negligible to the core. 

Their modeling is good, but not perfect -

It's a soft criticism...  I mean, some day time and place the natural progression of ever advancing tech won't need this discussion. Hell, they're be a "Weather Modification Grid" so there won't be a need to even run models in that sense - they program the sun vs rain; that'll be it.  Game over..  oy. lol.

But for now, they seem to just be sticking with the model intensity consensus in a deep layer tropospheric synopsis that appears to offer that as a conservative model result.  It'll be interesting.  

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key to my forecast is that I don't think this has much time to complete an ERC, but even if it does, we will just trade some wind impact for more surge. This one will rank up there.

You are correct ERC probability in ships is 10%

[Ginx snewx]

New link Ya'll

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2021/al092021/

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...totally valid as an idea - I don't personally have any on that particular aspect.  "Ida"know what to say,  Lol

That said, the general arena between where Ida is located and NOLA is a deep bath of basically 0 negative/inhibitory factors as far I can tell .. beyond 24 hours from now.  You know, passing over some of the highest oceanic heat content there is on Earth comparing to the world's other oceanic hot spot regions.  

As a sidecar wonder ... I sometimes think NHC is/has become a bit too reliant on modeling, and not really ...or may have lost some 'talent' or ... or perhaps policy forbades but the polish is lax.  I read their discussions and it doesn't seem they elaborate enough on the top side implications.  They do mention some light shear, but the modeling shows that weakening, and should Ida's convective circulation engine become influential, that'll easily supplant that incurring force and make it negligible to the core. 

Their modeling is good, but not perfect -

It's a soft criticism...  I mean, some day time and place the natural progression of ever advancing tech won't need this discussion. Hell, they're be a "Weather Modification Grid" so there won't be a need to even run models in that sense - they program the sun vs rain; that'll be it.  Game over..  oy. lol.

But for now, they seem to just be sticking with the model intensity consensus in a deep layer tropospheric synopsis that appears to offer that as a conservative model result.  It'll be interesting.  

Models struggle in extreme scenarios and don't always adequately account for all meteorological phenomena...its like during winter, when models will print out cirrus over the Berkshires with a 970mb tempest just inside of the benchmark. Its incumbent on the forecaster to account for mid level features. Same deal here...intensity guidance can not entirely resolve what is beginning to happen and what will transpire over the course of the next 36-48 hours. The forecaster needs to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Give me home grown instead of having to sweat every trough pulling a storm north in the Atlantic every day for two weeks 

They are not the ACE makers, but they are the cinema.

[CoastalWx]

If this track SW near Houma, would think NoLa is spared the worst? They can't afford any east ticks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

There are also times when the models are overzealous...again, forecaster needs to blend meteorological breadth of perspective/experience with foundational knowledge to synthesize a superior forecast...machines can not do that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If this track SW near Houma, would think NoLa is spared the worst? They can't afford any east ticks. 

Agree

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are also times when he models are overzealous...again, forecaster needs to utilize meteorological breadth of perspective/experience with foundational knowledge to synthesize a superior forecast...machines can not do that.

This one has high end potential as you said. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This one has high end potential as you said. 

That, to me, is the fun of forecasting....hedging when to over/under cut guidance. No one with a true passion for weather vomits model output in any event of relevance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You are correct ERC probability in ships is 10%

This is why the majority of the most intense US LFs are not long tracker CV storms...that, and less chance for recurve.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Give me home grown instead of having to sweat every trough pulling a storm north in the Atlantic every day for two weeks 

I like tracking CV storms, especially the ones that survive 20-30 days

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this track SW near Houma, would think NoLa is spared the worst? They can't afford any east ticks. 

yeah it's like there is a 'key slot' angle ...which by virtue of being so narrow they tend to luck out for system's just not likely to hit that bull's eye. And approach of ~ 120 deg

The Mississippi delta extends some 50 miles ESE into the Gulf; by that convention, a S --> N land falling monster is bad, but spares them the worst if say the open mouth of the river where it meets the Gulf were to forcibly gulp the ballast of a surge dome - so an upper tier category cyclone moving up from the ESE.  IDA is moving sort of SE --> NW or SSE --> NNW so they are flirting with disaster here should Ida avail of what appears to be some very good parametrics.

[Cyclone-68]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I like tracking CV storms, especially the ones that survive 20-30 days

It’s great when they do make it through. It’s like winning the lottery.  But to win the lottery you probably have to play and  lose 200x first..

[ineedsnow]

you can just tell this is a monster in the making.. I hope the people on the coast get out..!!

[Cyclone-68]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

you can just tell this is a monster in the making.. I hope the people on the coast get out..!!

New Orleans for all its troubles is a very fun place to visit and the people are top notch. I hope they get past this 

[CoastalWx]

GFS not so bad for NoLA I think. Canadian, maybe close to worst case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

New Orleans for all its troubles is a very fun place to visit and the people are top notch. I hope they make it through this 

Odds are they won't get the very worst of it, but I felt it prudent to really emphasize the danger because its perfectly feasible

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS not so bad for NoLA I think. Canadian, maybe close to worst case.

NO needs the bend back more westward in the GOM because right now eastern envelop is favored.

[Ginx snewx]

Forecast Integrated Kinetic Energy for Ida is most similar in nature to Hurricane Rita with storm destructive surge and overall available energy.

[Cyclone-68]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Forecast Integrated Kinetic Energy for Ida is most similar in nature to Hurricane Rita with storm destructive surge and overall available energy.

Compared to the potential energy of Henri which was that of a sick asthmatic ant 

[Typhoon Tip]

Now a hurricane

[Typhoon Tip]

It's dropped over 10 mb in the last hour and a half 

[Typhoon Tip]

SW shear is very light and I still believe that as Ida denatures the surrounding medium in lieu of its mechanics, the cyclones subsidence circumvallate ring will take over and intercede any light shearing ... effectively creating its own environment that shelters that.  If the shear were strengthening it would not be able to do so... 

Other than modest land elevations over western Cuba, I don't see any real reason why this won't just continue along an intensification curve.  Frankly this is vivid candidate for an RI ... just reiterating my earlier sentiments, I know ... if this mid day surge in intensity isn't that process already beginning.  I feel confident this cyclone will exceed present intensity expectation.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SW shear is very light and I still believe that as Ida denatures the surrounding medium in lieu of its mechanics, the cyclones subsidence circumvallate ring will take over and intercede any light shearing ... effectively creating its own environment that shelters that.  If the shear were strengthening it would not be able to do so... 

Other than modest land elevations over western Cuba, I don't see any real reason why this won't just continue along an intensification curve.  Frankly this is vivid candidate for an RI ... just reiterating my earlier sentiments, I know ... if this mid day surge in intensity isn't that process already beginning.  I feel confident this cyclone will exceed present intensity expectation.

Well there is only one category above what is expected so are you calling for Cat 5?

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well there is only one category above what is expected so are you calling for Cat 5?

NHC currently has cat 3 as its max intensity

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

NHC currently has cat 3 as its max intensity

Yea they won't go to that extreme,  yet..... Euro 

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

NHC currently has cat 3 as its max intensity

Legit cat 3 is potent enough for user's dystopian drug, anyway lol.   No but It's really more of an experimental talking point. Its need stems from the gap between prediction vs, sometimes these cyclone do get into the 160+/ 910 mb VIP lounge - the trick is to know when.  Seldom does NHC put out an advisory with a max wind forecast interval like that - yet they happen.  Someone with stats?  maybe 12 of these ilk of storm out there in the last 20 years. IT seems there's a gray area ( weak pun in there somewhere) in that upper ranging. 

But yeah, once we are over a buck-10 in sustained wind we're denuding the shore and calving roofs, just matter of how complete that denudation succeeds.  

[Ginx snewx]

Max winds 157 knots!!

[Cyclone-68]

So this storm managed to do in a single hour what Henri couldn’t accomplish in 3 days