donsutherland1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and even lower 90s in most places. A shower or thundershower is possible, especially during the afternoon or evening. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 89° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.8°; 15-Year: 80.6° Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.6° Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Phoenix will likely record its record-breaking 5th consecutive day with temperatures reaching 115° or above. Daily Records for June 19: Phoenix: 118°, 2016 and 2017 (Forecast: 114° to 118°) Tucson: 115°, 2016 and 2017 (Forecast: 110° to 114°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday: Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight. This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday. The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks. PW near 1.8". No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid). Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. Tuesday: The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). Later, Walt 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 76*(66/85), or about +1.0. Month to date is 72.6[+2.3]. Should be about 74.6[+2.0] by the 27th. 67*(84%RH) here at 6am, overcast, bluish sky. 69* at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Back to the heat and humidity for a three day interlude. Places that can get into enough sunshine between clouds and showers/storms will get to 90s Sat. Sun - Mon look drier. Where its sunny for any long duration could see mid 90s. Cooler air arrive as a front moves through later on Tuesday (6/22). Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24) look similar to this past Wed/Thu dry and very nice/comfortabkle.. Southerly flow brings the warmth and humidity as the Western Atlantic ridge builds west likely from Fri (2/5) - end of June. Need to watch any hung up front which looks west of the area but should the ridge not extend too far west that hung up front could be east near the area. Need to watch any trends on guidance. As we get into July still looks overall warm with heights rising into the east and need to see if the W Atlantic Ridge can merge with the Rockies / Plains ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday: Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight. This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday. The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks. PW near 1.8". No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid). Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. Tuesday: The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). Later, Walt I was advertising this risk up our way ( SNE ) three days ago ... modest lapse rate, but bigger CAPE and right entrance/side-swipe jet fields. Seems to pan out but the general kinematic layout is/has repositioned in space and time favoring that evening arrival into your region of the M/A. - at the time I noted the D3 out of SPC as 'mrgnl' throughout, and surmised they'd goose to 'slght' as the time nears - a typical wait-and-see tact out of that office. Indeed, they have, but it's back toward PA and not up this way. D'oh Still, I see this potential as a possible nocturnal evolver going forward - quasi MCS checklist in place. Not 100% sold But, there are wind maxima running over/astride of a bit of a synoptic acceleration of thermal conveyor - present linear MCS stalls/robs theta-e in that arrival? Perhaps. Source is appears smeared away from the heat Advised region of IA-IN yesterday. This shows nicely in these recent NAM FOUS/grid values ( heh, I'm old school). It's still pushing impressive 28 and 29 C at 980 over BOS/LGA respectively today and tomorrow, with WSW non marine contamination, and 700 and 500 mb <60% RH typically flags open insolation .. may have to now-cast ceilings with spill-over near-by. If so, I suspect 2-meters slope to 32 C is attainable over metrowest(s) type regions, so that's the other aspect - sneaking albeit pedestrian heat wave lurks. But yes the 565 dm thickness argues TDs may in fact belated. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 I also feel the d-3 risk may smear more E in time, given to the on-gong longitudinal corrective behavior of any guidance when moving through temporal seam between the mid and shorter ranges. I could see that synoptically getting to western NE/E PA N NJ and NY metro, and then in situ monitoring also has that tendency of outpacing due to outflow propagation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 We appear to have dropped out of the Claudette wind field probabilites: Were in the yellow yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Current temp 88/DP 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Showing 91 here, local PWS also show 90-91 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 90 here, a bit unexpected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cfa said: 90 here, a bit unexpected. West wind and full sun, over performer. Topped out at 92. Planted a ton of grass under my PWS and even watered it at 1:30, so reading not too hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 85 here, DP 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Topped out at 89 here, now a lot of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Got to 85* at 3:30pm. Light showers incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 beast of a WAR on the euro 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 The WARmonger approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Finally getting a some decent rains. First inch+ per hour rates in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 No rain in 10 days here and the ground is drying out. Todays rain missed me to the northeast and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Sprinkles here where I am it definitely cooled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 hour ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: No rain in 10 days here and the ground is drying out. Todays rain missed me to the northeast and northwest. South shore of Nassau and parts of the city as well. Should have a couple more shots for the next few hours but unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 5 hours ago, psv88 said: West wind and full sun, over performer. Topped out at 92. Planted a ton of grass under my PWS and even watered it at 1:30, so reading not too hot 92° here 0.13" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at Boston (91°), New York City-LGA (91°), Newark (93°), and Philadelphia (90°). Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and very warm day. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm. It will likely be somewhat cooler on Monday with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Blythe, CA: 118° Bullhead City, AZ: 118° Death Valley, CA: 125° (tied record set in 2017) Las Vegas: 114° (tied record set in 1940) Needles, CA: 121° Palm Springs, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2016 and tied in 2017) Phoenix: 116° Sacramento: 102° Tucson: 113° Today, Phoenix recorded its 5th consecutive 115° or above temperature. That broke the record for most such days, which was 4. That record was set during June 19-22, 1968 and tied on June 25-28, 1979, June 25-28, 1990, July 26-29, 1995, July 28-31, 2020, and August 16-19, 2020. Tucson further extended its record streak of 110° or above days to 8. Death Valley recorded a June record-tying 5th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 124° or above. The record was set during June 26-30, 1994. Tomorrow will be another very hot day in the Southwest before some modest cooling takes place. Severe heat could return by the latter part of the week. In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 66% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -7.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.145 today. On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.200 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.457 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 hour ago, STORMANLI said: 92° here 0.13" so far Nice to see our numbers match. Definitely gets toasty in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like a cutter storm track next 10 days around the periphery of the WAR. Interior sections generally do better than the coast in patterns like this. Maybe we can sneak in a slow moving warm front which usually is our best bet this time of year. But at least we should see opportunities for convection going forward. i could see us getting a record dewpoint day with convection that makes it to suffolk co 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Another bust storm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 92 before some rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 89° here for hi today with 0.14" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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