May 2021

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Sooner or later we'll get into an extended dry period like we did in the 60s.  Our climate is all about extremes and I would expect that to happen.

 

The wetter extremes have been winning out since the 1960s.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/4/jcli-d-11-00723.1.xml

4. Discussion

The new reconstruction of drought for the NYC watershed highlights two important aspects of regional hydroclimatic history. First, while the 1960s drought is still among the most intense droughts over the last 500 years, it interrupts a multicentennial trend of increasing moisture availability that has continued through 2011. Second, the new record gives greater insight regarding the spatial extent and severity of the megadroughts during the 1500s and provides greater temporal and spatial insight into droughts during the 1600s. Two other important outcomes of this work are that 1) an improved depiction of historical droughts and the long-term trend of increasing moisture availability should be useful for understanding the complex climate dynamics in the eastern United States and 2) the reconstruction’s strength appears to be partly derived from high tree species replication. We will detail the implications of the regional hydroclimatic history, methodological aspects of the tree-ring based NYC watershed reconstruction, and its potential societal impacts in the following sections.

a. Multicentennial trend toward pluvial conditions

One of the most prominent trends in the NYC watershed reconstruction is the general trend toward pluvial conditions since ca. 1800. The magnitude of drought events after the 1827 pluvial is less than in prior centuries and becomes nearly nil after the 1960s drought (Fig. 4a). Perhaps as striking is the trend of reduced drought intensity since the late eighteenth century (Fig. 4b). The trend of increasing pluvial conditions is not limited to the NYC watershed region either; instead, it appears to be a local expression of a broader hydroclimatic change across the eastern United States (Fig. 6). Independent analyses have indicated wetter conditions since the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in three separate regions (Stahle et al. 1988; Stahle and Cleaveland 1992, 1994; E. R. Cook et al. 2010; McEwan et al. 2011). Here we show that the recent trend of increased wetness in the NYC watershed generally matches five regionally-distinct, tree-ring records of paleodrought drawn from the NADA. Much of the eastern United States has been unusually and somewhat persistently wet since the late 1800s. Almost all of these records indicate more pluvial conditions since the late 1950s. The only event that stands out from this large-scale pattern of change is the unusually severe 1960s drought. Since that event, our reconstruction indicates that this region of the northeastern United States has been experiencing the strongest pluvial conditions in the eastern United States.

Five records of hydroclimate variability across the eastern United States. The new NYC drought reconstruction now provides evidence that the sixteenth century megadrought (Stahle et al. 2000) extended up into the northeastern United States and that the trend toward more pluvial conditions is present in five independent records across much of the eastern United States. Each line is a 20-yr spline of the each annual record. The dashed line is the mean of each record’s mean.

Citation: Journal of Climate 26, 4; 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1

 

The instrumental record further supports our finding that recent pluvial events in the NYC region are at the upper limit of hydroclimatic variability for the last 500 years. Even though the 2006–09 pluvial is virtually unrivaled, 2011 goes beyond the 2006–09 event: the 2011 May–August average PDSI value is 3.72, including a value of 5.64 for August. The August 2011 PDSI value is the highest instrumental calculation for any month since 1895. Further, the only monthly PDSI values in the instrumental record greater than 5.0 occur after 2003 (n = 4). And, of the 20 highest monthly PDSI instrumental values, only one occurred prior to 1975 (a value of 4.48 in October 1955)—70% of the 20 wettest months occur after 2000. Both paleo- and instrumental records point out that the recent decade of pluvial conditions is at the upper end of hydroclimatic variability over the last 100 and 500 years (Figs. 1 and 5), which likely accounts for the lack of water emergencies since 2002. Taken at face value, all these data suggest the long-term trend in pluvial conditions is unusual over the last 500 years.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Not sure about you, but the gnats are a problem too.  I've been bit up pretty bad so far, but they're all from those tiny things.  All of a sudden there's a pinch and some blood, forget about the itching.  Even some anti-itch cream barely helps.

all these bugs spread disease too, we've had malaria, etc., on Long Island

[donsutherland1]

The Memorial Day will be rainy and unseasonably cool. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 1.00"-3.00" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend. The wettest areas could see rainfall figures near or above 5.00".

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -5.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.243 today.

On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.451 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.034 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

We need to find some sort of artificial means to suck this excess humidity right out of the air.  It's scientifically viable we just need to have the motivation to invent a large scale device that does this.  If we can geoengineer Mars we should be able to geoengineer our own planet too.

Waiting for nature to do its thing is just no longer an option.

 

Get a BIG one

https://damprid.com/product/hi-capacity-absorbers-fragrance-free-4-lb-tub/ 

[Rtd208]

Rain picking up in intensity here

Picked up 0.26" of rain so far today.

Current temp 51

[ForestHillWx]

47. Heavy rain. 

[Rtd208]

Plenty of moderate to heavy rain moving into the NYC metro from the southwest, some areas in the metro could be exceeding an inch of rain prior to or by midnight.

[Dan76]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

I blame part of it on the loss of our bat population. Whether it be from the white nose syndrome or loss of habitat. 

When they got rid of leaded gas is when it be came a problem.

[gpsnavigator]

Some stations in west jersey are already showing 1"+, and that radar to our southwest is very moist.

[LoboLeader1]

Heavy rain here, current temp 48.

[SnoSki14]

Very rainy night ahead.

[jm1220]

We should all be close to 2" by morning. JFK had 0.3" last hour and the worst of the rain isn't here yet. Most are 0.5-0.8" now. 

[Rtd208]

Up to 0.82" of rain so far today.

Current temp 50

[uncle W]

15 hours ago, uncle W said:

these little droughts always have a deluge lurking around the corner...I expect the mini drought will be washed away soon...

its over...

 

[Snowlover11]

pouring here in yonkers with some decent wind gusts.

0.60” and counting 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Up to 0.82" of rain so far today.

Current temp 50

1.10 so far up my way. 

[jm1220]

This'll finally do away with the pollen and other crap that's been coated all over everything for weeks. In a lull here now but the steady moderate/heavy rain is on the doorstep. Sucks that it has to happen this weekend but we definitely need it.

[weathermedic]

Tide up over Brookville Blvd behind JFK as usual with these persistent easterly fetch situations. PD shut down that stretch of Brookville Blvd. At least one car stuck in the water.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.12" of rain for the day.

Current temp 50

[doncat]

0.96" for friday...a brisk 48° at midnight.

[doncat]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

its over...

 

How about "Running Scared" when a snowstorm is missing to the south.

[Rjay]

Pouring and 48 degrees

[Rjay]

Islip somehow only reported 0.18" over the last hour out of this batch.

Over 1.50" at Islip.   Some areas pushing 2". It's pouring here and 46 degrees here.  

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

those bloodsucking sand gnats or whatever they are also spread disease.  hate those bastards

we've had sleeping sickness here in these swamps....excuse me protected wetlands....

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Pouring and 48 degrees

why does this feel like winter all over again? lol

I actually hear the wind whistling through the leaves

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Tide up over Brookville Blvd behind JFK as usual with these persistent easterly fetch situations. PD shut down that stretch of Brookville Blvd. At least one car stuck in the water.

PD2? I wonder what happened over there in Jan 2016 and some of our other really windy snowstorms.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We should all be close to 2" by morning. JFK had 0.3" last hour and the worst of the rain isn't here yet. Most are 0.5-0.8" now. 

and the winds will be at gale force, they already are over here, I can hear them

 

[ForestHillWx]

43 currently; well over an 1” in the first batch. 

[lee59]

1.49 inches so far here and more on the way. 47 degrees with winds gusting over 30mph.

[dmillz25]

Nice dry period busting pollen killing rain fall. Definitely needed