MJO812 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Lovely weekend ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Very wet 00z NAM run. Widespread 2-3" rainfall with higher amounts especially as you head further north and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: GFS up to no good again: lol @ June 9, no chance of 100 happening this early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 9 hours ago, uncle W said: late may 1961 and 1967 had a day with highs in the mid 40's with rain...LGA recorded ice pellets on 5/27/61...thats hard to believe... we had graupel a few years ago Memorial Day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Lovely weekend ahead A rare cold pocket in a sea of warmth. Would not be shocked to see temps near 50 midday Saturday. We quickly warm into 80s and likely 90s after the holiday weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be much cooler. Good forecast except NYC flat lined at 81 from 2pm on. Sunny skies, no sea breeze, only station to do so. Have seen this frequently in past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 The 06z NAM is an absolute deluge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The 06z NAM is an absolute deluge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 jesus 3-5” of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 these little droughts always have a deluge lurking around the corner...I expect the mini drought will be washed away soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 The last 4 days of May are averaging 56degs., or -11degs. Month to date is 64.2[+1.5]. May should end at 62.8[-0.4]. GFS still launching HW on June 6th until.........................? 61*(50%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast. 63* at 7am. Up to 68* around 11am. Down to 60* with drizzle/breeze by 3pm. 56* at 7pm. 54* at 8pm 52* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 At least Monday looks half decent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: At least Monday looks half decent! Yea was us going to ask if Monday is salvageable? I know those QPF printouts are as of Monday but hoping not much falls then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Morning thoughts... Clouds will increase. Rain will arrive this afternoon. Some of the rain could be heavy especially overnight. A general 1.00”-3.00” rainfall is likely into Sunday morning. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 60s before the onset of the rain. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unseasonably cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2021 Author Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: these little droughts always have a deluge lurking around the corner...I expect the mini drought will be washed away soon... It’s too difficult to sustain dry conditions for an extended period in our new wetter climate. We just got upgraded to D0 dry conditions yesterday. So it didn’t take long for the heavy rains to come after that update. Hard to believe the last time NYC had water restrictions was back in 2001-2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: these little droughts always have a deluge lurking around the corner...I expect the mini drought will be washed away soon... You can count on it, at least during the last 15 years for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 The last hour or so before louds arrive and linger the next 60 hours with rain and NE / ENE winds on what should be the coolest Memorial Day weekend. 65 degrees now and should be the warmest readings till Sunday. This is a speed bump in the overall warmth we started in Mid May as guidance continues to show ridging to build along the east coast / Bermuda High type weather. Humid warm and chance or some heat on occasoin Jun 2 - Jun 6. Beyond that perhaps brief cooldown before heights rise again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 More models are bumping up the Part 2 amplifying trough/tropical feed on Sun which is what can really pump the rain totals sky high through training and the moist tropical connection. Tonight's overrunning Part 1 looks like a widespread 1-2". As usual the overrunning is pushing north at the last minute to where northern parts of forum and SNE get the heaviest rain from that part. Whether we really get to 4-6" depends on where and how strong Part 2 gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 19 hours ago, uncle W said: late may 1961 and 1967 had a day with highs in the mid 40's with rain...LGA recorded ice pellets on 5/27/61...thats hard to believe... I believe that was hail. There's a few of those in the climate record in late May. Last yr when we had a trace snow on May 9th, tying latest ever in the Park, some media outlets mistakenly reported a trace of snow previously happening in late May, which they ended up having to correct soon after. NWS need to fix that. Looking at the high/lows on some of those days its clear it was hail from t-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Wind direction is everything in the NY Bight. This is especially true when our biggest airports are right on the water. The 22nd was an extremely dry offshore flow heat event. So both EWR and JFK were located in the warmest zones. Also notice how the NW flow off the East River kept LGA cooler than both the Astoria and Corona new micronet stations. The ASOS at LGA is in the extreme NW corner of the airport near the water. The JFK ASOS is located in a marshy area in the eastern edge of the airport. Not far from North Woodmere in the five towns section of Long Island. Since the sea breeze was so strong yesterday east of NYC, EWR and the new fresh kills station were the warmest in the region. All the Newark Bay Breeze days last few summers allowed LGA to beat EWR on numerous occasions. 5-26 maximum temperatures EWR…..94 Fresh Kills….92 Astoria……….87 Corona………86 LGA….86 Brownsville…..81 South Ozone Park…79 JFK…75 5-22 EWR…..96 JFK…….94 Brownsville….94 South Ozone Park….93 Corona……..92 Astoria……..91 Fresh Kills….91 LGA…..88 Thanks, I forgot there was a micronet network in addition to the mesonet network. There is even more it seems, maybe for internal use only, because over the last couple yrs I've seen these little mini weather stations popping up all over, mainly on utility poles. I've seen Con Ed trucks putting up radiation shields etc, I was wondering what is going on. Professional climate stations are great, but it's also interesting to see actual conditions you experience in the middle of the street, and little micro climates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 12z NAM-4"+ rain east of I-95, 4-6" of rain for much of CT and LI. 1-2" from Part 1 and the rest from heavy training/tropical feed on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 12z NAM-4"+ rain east of I-95, 4-6" of rain for much of CT and LI. 1-2" from Part 1 and the rest from heavy training/tropical feed on Sunday. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Terrible. Mon might be okay-rain pivots out on Sunday night but still looks mostly cloudy and temps maybe reaching the low 60s. Between the rain tonight and Sunday, Sat looks dreary, raw with showers in between the main shows. I remember lousy Memorial Day weekends but not this nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 it feels like a late october day this morning nice temps gusty breeze refreshing .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Mon might be okay-rain pivots out on Sunday night but still looks mostly cloudy and temps maybe reaching the low 60s. Between the rain tonight and Sunday, Sat looks dreary, raw with showers in between the main shows. I remember lousy Memorial Day weekends but not this nasty. I'd also think the Sunday piece could end up further east/west and possibly sparing some of us-those tropical feed setups are notoriously fickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 The all time record low maxes should get smashed easily tomorrow at EWR LGA and JFK of 60 58 and 57. I'm not so sure about the 51 in NYC. I think tomorrow has to be watched for a sneaky period where ceilings could rise to 2000-3000ft between rain and we might warm up more than expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I'd also think the Sunday piece could end up further east/west and possibly sparing some of us-those tropical feed setups are notoriously fickle Euro got wetter too, has a nice 4"+ chunk over N NJ and 3"+ everywhere else. UKMET has 6"+ over E LI. This Part 2 is getting bigger on each model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 4 hours ago, dWave said: I believe that was hail. There's a few of those in the climate record in late May. Last yr when we had a trace snow on May 9th, tying latest ever in the Park, some media outlets mistakenly reported a trace of snow previously happening in late May, which they ended up having to correct soon after. NWS need to fix that. Looking at the high/lows on some of those days its clear it was hail from t-storm. no t storms recorded that day...temps were in the low 40's... IPS-1F6953AE-6D0E-4F2A-9101-835F2E05CDB6.pdf (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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