May 2021

[Tatamy]

The line passed through here a short while ago. 0.20” in the rain bucket and the wind did not exceed 20 mph.  A few rumbles of thunder with it.  

[crossbowftw3]

Temperatures tumbling down as the main line comes through but no noteworthy storms happening. 70/64

[Rtd208]

It looks like the line of storms is intensifying/expanding as its crossed over into NJ from E.PA.

[weathermedic]

Sea breeze extending pretty far inland in NJ on radar. Wonder if this will enhance the storms as they head east through NJ

[bluewave]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Ahead of an approaching cold front, numerous locations in the East reached or exceeded 90°. Those locations included:

Allentown: 91°
Baltimore: 94° (tied record set in 1914)
Boston: 92°
Concord: 92°
Harrisburg: 92°
Hartford: 90°
Lynchburg: 93° (tied record set in 1933)
Newark: 94°
Norfolk: 97°
Philadelphia: 92°
Richmond: 95° (old record: 94°, 1953, 1984, and 1991)
Roanoke: 93°
Scranton: 91°
Sterling, VA: 92° (tied record set in 2007)
Washington, DC: 91°

90° Days for Select Cities (through May 26):

Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 2 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 3 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 2 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 1 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 2 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 2 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 1 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 4 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 3 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 2 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 4 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 2 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 2 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Newark has now had 4 days on which the temperature rose to 90° or above in May. New York City's Central Park has none. Should Central Park fail to record a 90° day, that will break the record for most 90° days at Newark when Central Park had none during the month of May. The previous record was 3 days at Newark, which was set in 1985 and tied in 1999. Newark's 4 90° days are the most in May since 2018 when Newark also registered 4 such days.

Parts of New York State, southern New England, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will likely see a thunderstorm this evening. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe.

Tomorrow will become fair, but will remain warm for the season. However, cooler air will arrive late in the day and at night. Much of the remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. A warming trend could commence as May comes to a close.

The Memorial Day weekend will likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +0.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.073 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.651 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[dmillz25]

That top part of that line looks like it’s getting stronger headed towards nyc

[Stormlover74]

Warning issued for SI and ne nj

[nycemt123]

Nice squall coming into SI! Great day to be at my sister's

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Stormlover74]

That wind means business 

[Rtd208]

Impressive winds with the line of storms.

[nycemt123]

Panorama of the storm incoming on SI@donsutherland1

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[forkyfork]

ewr 55 mph gust

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

[Rtd208]

The line weakened a bit when it got here, had some impressive winds initially that died down fairly quickly. Had some brief heavy rain as well. Could see some additional rain/storms before things start to quiet down.

[rclab]

Downpour just began over the postage stamp, no lightning or thunder, just gusty rain. As always ...

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

Panorama of the storm incoming on SI@donsutherland1

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Great photo. 

[CIK62]

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here in Brooklyn 

[Snowlover11]

already getting screwed here in yonkers.

[doncat]

Very brief...had a gust to 38 with 0.05" of rain.

[dmillz25]

A friend in Toms River is getting hail right now

[bluewave]

Hail showing up on radar in Oceanside and Rockville Centre.

[Rjay]

Friend in Merrick reporting hail

 

 

 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Friend in Merrick reporting hail

 

 

 

Upton mentioned some CAPE on the island above the inversion, explains why nassau was able to get something decent. 

[psv88]

Friend in Oceanside also reported hail

[bluewave]

Wantagh gusting to 39 mph.

From W at 22 mph
Gusting to 39 mph

[Rjay]

Warning for eastern Nassau and western and Central Suffolk 

[Cfa]

I’m not going to mention the h-word, it has completely evaded me for my 20+ years on this planet.

No rain in 2.5 weeks, under a severe thunderstorm warning now.

[psv88]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NYC059-103-270030-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0012.210526T2344Z-210527T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Suffolk County in southeastern New York...
  Southeastern Nassau County in southeastern New York...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 744 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Farmingdale,
  moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Deer Park and Babylon around 750 PM EDT.
  Commack and Bay Shore around 755 PM EDT.
  Islip and Brentwood around 800 PM EDT.
  Ronkonkoma around 805 PM EDT.
  Centereach and Holbrook around 810 PM EDT.
  Medford and Patchogue around 815 PM EDT.
  Middle Island and Yaphank around 820 PM EDT.
  Shirley and Mastic around 825 PM EDT.

This includes the following New York State COVID tent site
SUNY Stony Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 7357 4098 7288 4073 7278 4066 7303
      4060 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 261DEG 39KT 4073 7342

[jm1220]

Very brief shower and thunder here. Looks like the line reformed south of me and hugging the southern half of the island.