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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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22 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I could not locate the Dorian thread so I posted it here…. But Oh my ****ing god at this video from marsh harbor.  Video is required viewing

https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs

That, Josh’s video from Dorian, and that Mexico Beach video from the condo during Michael are the 3 most intense hurricane videos I know 

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7 hours ago, jconsor said:

Nice post! There were a lot more October landfalls along the US East Coast from SC northward to New England from the late 1600s to the early 1800s than since 1850.
I was able to find at least two that hit the East Coast in Oct and probably originated east of 55W, based on historical accounts:

The 1804 "Snow hurricane" that caused severe damage from NJ to New England on Oct 9. Chenoweth who did a reanalysis of 1700-1850 cites this storm as having tracked north of Puerto Rico.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane

Further details on damage in the northeast US: https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/HHITProject/HHITyears/1804/1804.htm

1706 tropical storm that tracked from Barbados to NY, with damage from wind and rain reported in NY/CT on Oct 15.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century

Chenoweth paper: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Chenoweth/chenoweth06.pdf

BTW and for entertainment purposes only, the 12z CFS is fixin' to break the record you mentioned. It shows a TS forming on Sep 27 just west of the CV islands and tracking west to a position just NE of the Leeward Islands Oct 2-3, then rounding an anomalously strong W Atl ridge before hitting eastern New England on Oct 7.
 

Thanks, Yaakov. Interesting about the two you noted!

1) 1804: As it says, Dominique and Guadeloupe as well as N of PR on 10/4. So, it appears to have been moving on a NW trajectory from 61-62W. What nobody knows is whether or not it had its genesis E of 55W. It is certainly conceivable that it formed between 55 W and 62 W as I found 6 others that did just that in the records within the MDR after 9/25 during 1873-2016 (see below). That areas seems to have been a sweet spot of sorts for geneses during late Sep/early Oct.

2) 1706: Barbados to New England. Barbados is 59-60W. Again, nobody knows how far E of Barbados it formed. Could it have formed within the sweet spot west of 55 W? Quite possible.

 Here are the furthest E geneses on record after 9/25 within the MDR that later hit the CONUS:
1) 56W: #6 of 1879 genesis 10/9
2) 58W: Hazel of 1954 genesis 10/5
3) 60W: #13 of 1887 genesis 10/9
4) 60W: Matthew of 2016 genesis 9/28
5) 62W: #5 of 1897 genesis 10/9
6) 62W: #5 of 1873 genesis 9/26

 Another to mention within MDR that hit the CONUS:
58W: #7 of 1898 genesis right on 9/25

North of MDR that hit the CONUS:
1) 61W: #7 of 1935 genesis 10/30
2) 63W: #5 of 1941 genesis 10/3
3) 64W: #7 of 1923 genesis 10/15

-------------------------

Edit:

 Here's another way to look at this that you may find interesting:

 From 1851-2020, there were 43 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W within the MDR 9/26+. NONE of these later hit the U.S.

**Correction: I had inadvertently left off that those in the lists all later hit the CONUS.

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59 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Peak season is a total fish fest this year. This is incredibly boring. Maybe there will be more ‘luck’ when Caribbean season comes later this month and into October. 


 Yes, for the FL peninsula. But what about Ida, especially in places like LA and NYC? That was one of the worst in LA and it was during the first half of peak season. Regardless, I prefer boring over exciting as I’m not much into devastation. With boring, there’s no risk of devastation. But maybe you’ll get your wish in October as that’s a second peak for your area.

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:


 Yes, for the FL peninsula. But what about Ida, especially in places like LA and NYC? That was one of the worst in LA and it was during the first half of peak season. Regardless, I prefer boring over exciting as I’m not much into devastation. With boring, there’s no risk of devastation. But maybe you’ll get your wish in October as that’s a second peak for your area.

He's just upset Florida hasn't gotten anything. Like I said before people are spoiled lol. Just a storm like Ida alone is a type of event that may only happen once every few years in other eras yet we've had Harvey, Ida, Laura and Michael in the past 4 years alone. And that's not even counting all the countless other hurricanes that have hit

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
17 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
That, Josh’s video from Dorian, and that Mexico Beach video from the condo during Michael are the 3 most intense hurricane videos I know 

Jim Edds' Haiyan video should be right up there with the aforementioned. He was submerged in a pool inside the eyewall.

Omg, somehow I missed that. Throw that in there as well! 

Though not as powerful, Josh’s Odile video is must watch material as it shreds the hotel lobby on camera. Also- the infamous Katrina surge video from Gulfport with the car coming through the lobby. All time great videos for sure

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17 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Welp, assuming we get Sam tomorrow and then the orange in the North Atlantic becomes Teresa...we're prolly gonna exhaust the damn name list again. What the heck?

The orange would be Odette regenerating, but the wave moving off Africa in the next couple days has a good chance of being Teresa.

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8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Welp, assuming we get Sam tomorrow and then the orange in the North Atlantic becomes Teresa...we're prolly gonna exhaust the damn name list again. What the heck?

Yeah considering it's the end of september I'm certain we're going to get through the entire list again. 2 years in a row is absolutely crazy

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The last three GFS runs all show this system that looks like it breaks off of Sam as it passes the Bahamas, which then moves west over Florida, intensifies in the gulf, then moves back east over Florida again. The 00z run drops it down to 978 mb. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh264-306.gif

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On 9/20/2021 at 1:34 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

He's just upset Florida hasn't gotten anything. Like I said before people are spoiled lol. Just a storm like Ida alone is a type of event that may only happen once every few years in other eras yet we've had Harvey, Ida, Laura and Michael in the past 4 years alone. And that's not even counting all the countless other hurricanes that have hit

Ida is a relatively rare event that has generally only occurred about once every 15 years on average.  The important caveats are that quite a few others were likely missed during the late 19th and early twentieth centuries, as well as other hurricanes that may have been stronger than currently analyzed in the historical record (1851-2021).  

All U.S. Hurricane Landfalls (=/> 130 kt)

8/10/1856, 8/20/1886, 9/10/1919, 8/14/1932, 9/02/1935*, 8/17/1969*, 8/26/1992*, 8/13/2004, 10/10/2018*, 8/27/2020, 8/29/2021

* Cat 5

All others 130 kt/150 mph Cat 4

When also taking into account the 125 kt/145 mph Cat 4’s (1926, 1928, 1960, 1961)…which could well be underestimated…it reduces to an average of 1 per 11 years, on avg.  Essentially, it’s a once a decade event.  

Note, too, that there tends to be multiple occurrences within a very short time span, followed by a significant respite lasting a much longer period, relative to the mean.     
 

In short, one shouldn’t anticipate a hurricane of Ida’s extreme intensity to make landfall on the U.S. mainland more than once a decade, on average, and it’s possible it’ll be quite a bit longer than that.     

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I always found it an interesting stroke of "luck" that the CONUS had two Cat 4+ landfalls in the span of four years, each of which at the time was the costliest U.S. hurricane (Hugo and Andrew), in what was supposedly a "down" period of activity (you also had Bob in there as well, and Iniki in the Pacific). Then the U.S. went 12 years without a major (100kt+) hurricane landfall during an "up" period, after the assault of Charley, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma from 2004-'05. Now we seem to be in another burst of activity, with Harvey, Irma, Michael, Laura and Ida from 2017 onwards (not to mention numerous weaker hurricanes and tropical storms in that timespan).

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After Sam, it looks like there will be two areas to watch over the next couple weeks.  Most models show the next wave (currently at 50% by NHC) curving OTS but a number of ensemble members have it continuing west maybe into the Caribbean/Antilles.  Then the GFS/GEFS has been hinting at a CAG type system forming in the Caribbean, maybe something similar to a Wilma/Matthew/Michael track which climo would favor.  Looks like we will likely hit the next list of names...

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh288-288.gif

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Since I do not see a banter thread for Sam I will ask this here.

What are the chances that Sam will make it to a Cat 5? At first I thought it would reach it, but the models don't seem to get it to be that powerful. But they also seem to be underperforming what is actually going on with Sam.

 

image.png.0f6b86221aefc2993c476c65204615af.png

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Since I do not see a banter thread for Sam I will ask this here.
What are the chances that Sam will make it to a Cat 5? At first I thought it would reach it, but the models don't seem to get it to be that powerful. But they also seem to be underperforming what is actually going on with Sam.
 
image.png.0f6b86221aefc2993c476c65204615af.png
We're not in Storm Mode. If it relates to Sam and is anything meteorological like the question you pose, then just take this to the Sam thread.
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