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Spring Banter


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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I paid over $7 for them at lowes. 

I've paid between $7.50 + 8.50 in Md and Pa . It  definitely sucks .Don't get me started on wire . Since I'm a  electrical contractor I'm up to speed usually on increases coming but the copper wire prices  doubling almost literally overnight about 6 to 7 weeks ago was a gut punch. 

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I've paid between $7.50 + 8.50 in Md and Pa . It  definitely sucks .Don't get me started on wire . Since I'm a  electrical contractor I'm up to speed usually on increases coming but the copper wire prices  doubling almost literally overnight about 6 to 7 weeks ago was a gut punch. 

I bought a 50 foot roll of 12/2 a couple weeks ago and it was $60

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13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I think most posters here are OK with a little discourse on the topic. Posters who barely contribute anywhere on the forum and only chime in to complain that they want a pure and curated banter experience are toxic.

Since this is obviously a low-key and unwarranted attack on my comment: I've kept my mouth shut multiple times but you're the most toxic, easily triggered, insecure, thin-skinned poster here. Its crazy how folks like you manage to not only move to our communities in NNE and take up an incredible and outsized amount space in reality but also figure out a way to do it virtually as well. Just go home.....someone else will happily pay the property taxes on your gaudy wannabe Tahoe log cabin. We can only hope they're half the a** you are. 

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7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, it has to, I mean putting allot of folks out of the market if it keeps going up

I remember back in 2007 agents and builders thought it would never end despite the average house doubling in price in the 7 years prior to that, but incomes only going up 5% in the same period.

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24 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

It will correct, always does, always will

While I'd tend to agree, there is some debate on how much of the gains reflect a bubble vs super-secret inflation.  The former, sure it pops. The latter seems here to stay a while.  Maybe it's some of both.

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11 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Since this is obviously a low-key and unwarranted attack on my comment: I've kept my mouth shut multiple times but you're the most toxic, easily triggered, insecure, thin-skinned poster here. Its crazy how folks like you manage to not only move to our communities in NNE and take up an incredible and outsized amount space in reality but also figure out a way to do it virtually as well. Just go home.....someone else will happily pay the property taxes on your gaudy wannabe Tahoe log cabin. We can only hope they're half the a** you are. 

Just get it all out, man. Then go back to lurking.

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2 minutes ago, radarman said:

While I'd tend to agree, there is some debate on how much of the gains reflect a bubble vs super-secret inflation.  The former, sure it pops. The latter seems here to stay a while.  Maybe it's some of both.

There's definitely a chunk of the real estate bubble that is actually real...it's being fueled by inadequate housing supply built. Esp for starter and middle class homes. So much of the construction has been toward the higher income end of the spectrum. They get better margins there and all those middle class developments going belly-up in the 2007-2008 crash spooked a lot of developers so they were slower to come back to building those units.

 

But there's definitely an artificial part of the bubble too. The very low supply isn't all due to lack of construction. A lot of it is due to people just not selling right now which started during the beginning of the pandemic. Once more sellers finally decide to test the waters, there will be a natural correction.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's definitely a chunk of the real estate bubble that is actually real...it's being fueled by inadequate housing supply built. Esp for starter and middle class homes. So much of the construction has been toward the higher income end of the spectrum. They get better margins there and all those middle class developments going belly-up in the 2007-2008 crash spooked a lot of developers so they were slower to come back to building those units.

 

But there's definitely an artificial part of the bubble too. The very low supply isn't all due to lack of construction. A lot of it is due to people just not selling right now which started during the beginning of the pandemic. Once more sellers finally decide to test the waters, there will be a natural correction.

another problem (at least around here) is lack of buildable land.   Most of the land is developed so there's no new units except for 4-5 story apartment complexes that are sprouting up....but people with young families don't really want those....

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21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember back in 2007 agents and builders thought it would never end despite the average house doubling in price in the 7 years prior to that, but incomes only going up 5% in the same period.

Lending standards got so laughable in that period . It was basically unbelievable, when NINJA loans were being written.

This time there has been (in my opinion) a Spike in wealthy Cash buyers who would rather have a growing percentage of their nest egg in Hard assets that will reprice upward if fiat currency debasement continues to succeed . 
 

At some point , the muting of the Traditional  “business cycle “ thru Central bank intervention and a replacement with what has so far boom- bust asset price cycles will find a inability to Keep the reflation going and at that point we will undergo a global financial system reorganization. At that point .. regardless if a basket of digital currencies  or digital SDR (Special drawing rights ) currency Becomes the backbone ...* it is highly unlikely the US currency is Sitting atop as the lone Reserve Currency * and we will lose the economic/military  benefits of having that luxury . 

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54 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The historic relationship between incomes and house values is getting a bit stretched again. 

Perhaps the Fed is helping the ole household balance sheet and the wealth effect By buying billions of mortgage backed securities every month.  (Not a bad thing but maybe send Jerome Powell a Xmas card )

I'm holding tsla into earnings. 

Thinking Qualcomm, Amazon, Cat, Microsoft as other plays... 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

another problem (at least around here) is lack of buildable land.   Most of the land is developed so there's no new units except for 4-5 story apartment complexes that are sprouting up....

Yeah, land is definitely a problem in more densely populated areas. There is probably going to be some shifting in the coming decade though with remote work being more feasible than ever for some. You'll see people take advantage of the cheap real estate elsewhere while still maintaining their employment from their former area of residence.

A good friend of mine just bought a place in Florida after he got sick of Chicago. He is keeping his Chicago job though and just going to work remotely.

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8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm holding tsla into earnings. 

Thinking Qualcomm, Amazon, Cat, Microsoft as other plays... 

TSLA ... should be a  wild ride 

The last couple days there has been a shift of money back to the Nasdaq (over other indexes) after a 2 month rotation . Who knows if it becomes legit but that would help Tech stocks. If yields are able to stay under 1.6 or fall it seems the market may show appetite to expand valuations  again .
 

Crypto was oversold and what a big bounce today 

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2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

We already do this though. There's still plenty of other viruses and bacteria that we are exposed to and live with on a regular basis. You'd literally have to live in a bubble to not develop proper immunity from exposure. 

Mystery Hoard: I'm Sorry, the Card Says “Moops"

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, land is definitely a problem in more densely populated areas. There is probably going to be some shifting in the coming decade though with remote work being more feasible than ever for some. You'll see people take advantage of the cheap real estate elsewhere while still maintaining their employment from their former area of residence.

A good friend of mine just bought a place in Florida after he got sick of Chicago. He is keeping his Chicago job though and just going to work remotely.

I heard the terms Zoomtown going around, due to all the WFH folks moving to new places

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