MJO812 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 New gfs taking over today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 With which run today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 It's been in the 20s for several mornings, feels like the desert with these huge temperature swings. The cold mornings and dry weather are probably why things aren't leafing out much yet despite 60s & sun during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, sferic said: With which run today? 12z is the v16 upgrade & new operational going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's been in the 20s for several mornings, feels like the desert with these huge temperature swings. The cold mornings and dry weather are probably why things aren't leafing out much yet despite 60s & sun during the day. Low dews are definitely a factor. Things will really jump Thursday and Friday with high dew warm combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 bring it 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: bring it Hurricane into NYC ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 14 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Its a shame things have dried up for late week, we could really use the rain. We could be headed towards a "3 H" summer here with light precipitation amounts until tropical season really kicks into gear in August. We'll see The Euro and CAMS have some elevated convection with this feature on Wednesday. But it’s hard to tell how widespread the coverage will be. Maybe we can get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: bring it Only if you promise to keep it south of I80. I'll even give you up to the NY/NJ/PA border if it makes you happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 We are on track for our first 2 consecutive warmer than average Marches since 2011-2012. March was one of our few colder months of the year from 2013 to 2019. November has been the other cooler month but we had record warmth this year. NY Coastal Climate Division https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/3/2010-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 202003 45.0°F 8 5.2°F 201903 38.8°F 5 -1.0°F 201803 38.8°F 6 -1.0°F 201703 37.7°F 3 -2.1°F 201603 45.8°F 10 6.0°F 201503 35.1°F 1 -4.7°F 201403 35.5°F 2 -4.3°F 201303 38.7°F 4 -1.1°F 201203 47.9°F 11 8.1°F 201103 40.8°F 7 1.0°F 201003 45.4°F 9 5.6°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 27* here this morning, high of 61 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 61/31 split here today, heavy frost this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Temperatures rose into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region this afternoon after a frosty start outside the big cities. Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and springlike day. Afterward, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures. Much above normal temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. In addition, some showers and possibly thundershowers are possible. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Newfoundland and Labrador saw a number of record high temperatures. High temperatures included: Churchill Falls: 52° (old record: 45°, 2012) Goose Bay: 53° (old record: 51°, 2000) Hopedale: 42° (old record: 40°, 1946) Mary's Harbour: 55° (old record: 42°, 2000) There remains some potential for another day of near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.609 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Posted in the New England sub forum. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures rose into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region this afternoon after a frosty start outside the big cities. Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and springlike day. Afterward, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures. Much above normal temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. In addition, some showers and possibly thundershowers are possible. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Newfoundland and Labrador saw a number of record high temperatures. High temperatures included: Churchill Falls: 52° (old record: 45°, 2012) Goose Bay: 53° (old record: 51°, 2000) Hopedale: 42° (old record: 40°, 1946) Mary's Harbour: 55° (old record: 42°, 2000) There remains some potential for another day of near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.609 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal). Don these artificial Central Park temps are really deceptive. We had a very thick heavy frost here in SW LI and the NYC temp is heavily influenced by artificial human structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Cfa said: 61/31 split here today, heavy frost this morning. it looked like snow on the roof of my garage! might not be our last one either, looks like next week is going to be pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: Only if you promise to keep it south of I80. I'll even give you up to the NY/NJ/PA border if it makes you happy. hell yea a 2010 repeat is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(44/60), or +6.0. Month to date is 41.6[+0.6]. Should be 44.4[+2.2] by the 31st. EURO still has a Trace on the 30th. Nutty T swings possible on the GFS going into April. 45*(98%RH) here at 6am. Distant fog. 44* at 7am. 48* by 10am with hazy skies. 51* at 11am, but back to 49* at Noon. 53* at 2pm. 54* at 3pm, sea fog. 57* at 4pm. 58* near 6pm. 52* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Morning thoughts... Morning fog will burn off and give way to a partly sunny day. Clouds could become more noticeable during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler with some showers. Much warmer air will arrive for Thursday and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don these artificial Central Park temps are really deceptive. We had a very thick heavy frost here in SW LI and the NYC temp is heavily influenced by artificial human structures. The City radiates poorly. I had thick frost the past two days (not today), as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, SACRUS said: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif We are on the periphery of the hybrid low off the Carolinas. You can clearly see the North East flow off the colder Atlantic. Typical early spring for the Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The City radiates poorly. I had thick frost the past two days (not today), as well. Good morning Don. Tradition/political considerations aside where ( if any place ) would it be best to take official readings/measurements for NYC? As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning Don. Tradition/political considerations aside where ( if any place ) would it be best to take official readings/measurements for NYC? As always ... Much of the City is now tainted by the urban heat island effect. Parts of the northern Bronx and also Staten Island are less severely impacted. Central Park could be improved with some commitment to greater accuracy there. That would entail managing the tree growth around the station, measuring snowfall when the snow stops falling, etc. The issue of trees has a larger impact on temperatures. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Much of the City is now tainted by the urban heat island effect. Parts of the northern Bronx and also Staten Island are less severely impacted. Central Park could be improved with some commitment to greater accuracy there. That would entail managing the tree growth around the station, measuring snowfall when the snow stops falling, etc. The issue of trees has a larger impact on temperatures. Yeah, the issue of trees blocking direct sunlight has had a much bigger impact on temperature accuracy. You can see the cooler maximum temperatures now when the trees are fully leafed out. UHI has been remarkably steady since 1900 in Central Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Negative NAO showing up on the models just in time for April lol Anyone ready for a cool and wet spring ? 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Negative NAO showing up on the models just in time for April lol Anyone ready for a cool and wet spring ? Not me. I love winter weather but once there are no meaningful snow chances left, I want mild weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 there is something different about radiation shields and weather shelters or box's for thermometers...I've found radiation shields are not as good as the old weather shelters or box's in direct sunlight...I think Central Parks instrument location effects nightime lows too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, uncle W said: there is something different about radiation shields and weather shelters or box's for thermometers...I've found radiation shields are not as good as the old weather shelters or box's in direct sunlight...I think Central Parks instrument location effects nightime lows too... The low temperatures in NYC seem to be doing better that the highs during the summer. Notice how there has been a slight decline in average high temperatures since 1981. This reflects the overgrowth of trees and vegetation. White Plains and NYC have a similar rise in minimum temperatures. But you can see the highs increasing there since the sensor at the airport isn’t under a dense canopy. So while people rightly take issue with Central Park snowfall measurements, the error is far less than the temperature sensor getting overgrown by vegetation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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