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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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Lol not sure what to make of the RGEM. Focuses the heaviest morning band through DC and southern half of 495. Then has a long second wave which most other guidance has dropped. But overall fits with the happy hour theme of good for the cities and drier for far N/W areas.

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Think the models are gonna bust low on the nw periphery of the storm. None of them are properly handling that part of the storm correctly right now. That’s what I want to believe anyway.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol not sure what to make of the RGEM. Focuses the heaviest morning band through DC and southern half of 495. Then has a long second wave which most other guidance has dropped. But overall fits with the happy hour theme of good for the cities and drier for far N/W areas.

I think there’s a solid chance your area busts on the positive side like last storm. Boom chance on the front end is quite high just west of 95 where the initial thump will have plenty of cold air to work with and QPF is greatest. Hope it all works out ! HRRR and other short terms were the first to sniff out the potential last go around within 24 hours of onset 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol not sure what to make of the RGEM. Focuses the heaviest morning band through DC and southern half of 495. Then has a long second wave which most other guidance has dropped. But overall fits with the happy hour theme of good for the cities and drier for far N/W areas.

I'm having trouble forgiving it for its "We're going to get 40" less than 12 hours before the event started". Must be tossed until proven otherwise... ha!

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Think the models are gonna bust low on the nw periphery of the storm. None of them are properly handling that part of the storm correctly right now. That’s what I want to believe anyway.

Agree - hard to go against historical climo. Not saying it can't and doesn't happen, but the times where it does are far fewer than the other direction. Favorable areas are that for a reason.

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Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

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4 minutes ago, GATECH said:

High 36.5, 35.1 now, DP 15 (nice).  The Sun is like a laser!

This is why Dec snows are better. Sun would damn near be set by now. 
 

36.3/16

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

For the most part, shut up

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

Same but better and also worse. Best to wait until Friday and then see what happened

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36/14

Highs around Charlottesville busted about 2 degrees below forecast  NWS had a forecast of 40, we hit 38 for maybe 30 mins about an hour ago.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

12K NAM was juiced up, 3K NAM was on its usual shit. Euro was driesh but cold. Para GFS was lol-awesome but no one is taking that seriously. 3-5" from you with a little sleet on top arcing NE toward WxUSAF seems reasonable still. A few models still show a wall of snow before sleet- rooting like hell for them.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

Basically consensus is there isn't consensus yet.

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Seems like such a disconnect between the short range models and the official forecast?  Can anyone explain what experts are relying on to forecast the higher amounts?  Any extra balloon releases to look for this warm layer?

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

Seems a bit drier vs the overnight runs (that’s been the trend all winter up to game time), but generally stronger with the initial snow thump. Less sleet. So far happy hour’s been pretty good for the cities and immediate suburbs. I’d say 3-6” plus some sleet is a pretty reasonable call for our yards. If we can hold off the warm layer just for another hour or two, it would make a big difference.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Havent looked anything 12 or 18z. Can someone save me the time and just give me the broad brush synopsis? If same as 0&6z then tell me to shut up. 

Ellenwood has you in blue 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Seems like such a disconnect between the short range models and the official forecast?  Can anyone explain what experts are relying on to forecast the higher amounts?  Any extra balloon releases to look for this warm layer?

I'm not sure if there's an advantage to an extra balloon release. The regularly scheduled 12z RAOB from RNK and IAD would help to see if there's anything hanging out aloft that could mess up the snow and that would be just as the goods start to materialize.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

12K NAM was juiced up, 3K NAM was on its usual shit. Euro was driesh but cold. 3-5" from you with a little sleet on top arcing NE toward WxUSAF seems reasonable still. A few models still show a wall of snow before sleet- rooting like hell for them.

Just poked around the 18z 3k soundings. The sleet on the sim radar isnt a sure thing. Sounding looks more like snow in areas W of 95. Not really much of a warm nose until the heavies are gone. Def walking the line in my yard. I expect plenty of sleet either way. Figures the euro would drop a dry upper decker into the tank. Time will tell

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I'll stick with the safe forecast - something may or may not fall out of the sky in the next few days. 

Obs? Sun and cold. Should drop below freezing pretty quick. 

Radar? Looks like there is precip in western TN, so nothing is getting here too quick. NAM says start time tomorrow morning. I'll believe that.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Just poked around the 18z 3k soundings. The sleet on the sim radar isnt a sure thing. Sounding looks more like snow in areas W of 95. Not really much of a warm nose until the heavies are gone. Def walking the line in my yard. I expect plenty of sleet either way. Figures the euro would drop a dry upper decker into the tank. Time will tell

Yeah, the sleet part of this is looking less impressive (which, kinda bums me out as a good sleet mauling on top of four inches of snow would be hella cool). 

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Seems like such a disconnect between the short range models and the official forecast?  Can anyone explain what experts are relying on to forecast the higher amounts?  Any extra balloon releases to look for this warm layer?

My guess is a blend of both.  Or they are preparing to reduce totals soon.  Crap shoot

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Radar looking pretty solid so far down south. Just south of Little Rock (pine bluff area) is seeing 2” per hour snowfall as I write this 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

My guess is a blend of both.  Or they are preparing to reduce totals soon.  Crap shoot

IMO, Sterling's snow map looks pretty good and I don't see anything on the guidance that would throw a red flag they're too high.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems a bit drier vs the overnight runs (that’s been the trend all winter up to game time), but generally stronger with the initial snow thump. Less sleet. So far happy hour’s been pretty good for the cities and immediate suburbs. I’d say 3-6” plus some sleet is a pretty reasonable call for our yards. If we can hold off the warm layer just for another hour or two, it would make a big difference.

Hope it works out for you guys, seriously. I would offer to take extra hours of sleet if it meant you guys cashed in, but if I’m sleeting, then you have been for a while lol

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