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February 18/19th Storm Potential

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, here's your relevant NAM trend

namconus_T700_neus_fh45_trend.thumb.gif.c77c373cddecf17b8ccb9b7ccb1f4004.gif

Check out the trend in low positions (Ohio valley low and coastal). Money. 

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1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

NAM sleet fest is still on. I'm seriously rooting for this, y'all, over snow. 3"+ of sleet is just way too fun.

 

tqWeZ6J.png

stop cheering for sleet. Its a useless precip type. I only like it if we are suppose to get rain

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band.  Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it. 

While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show.  DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period.

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8 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Well in fairness this is his opinion of trying to forecast it:

 

 

In real fairness, that was a joking tweet from him and that was not his real forecast.  His real projection from this am was 1-2" snow, 1-2" sleet, and .0.25" freezing rain for Cville area.
Reese is the best met at winter weather in the greater Cville area and does a nice job engaging with folks on Twitter and explaining the science for amateurs.

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7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

We needed a big shift south though! Because we know the inevitable tomorrow! 

 

were getting it!

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh43_trend.gif

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show.  DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period.

Yea in that case it’s harder to pin the exact mix line but if there is a meso banding feature along the front like much guidance hints at my guess is the mix is just south of it. 

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10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Woof. That’s a hell of a cut off as shown on the NAM. Certainly a better look with that hot pink running through my house, but not great for I-95 and the metros. Good news is that guidance  has been trending colder / snowier and not Vice versa leading up the storm, so there’s still plenty of time to kick the fall line SE another few ticks.  

My background is more paleontology than meteorology, but I always thought the fall line only moves on a geologic time scale.

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That initial WAA snowband on the 3k NAM was well into PA on 12z and now is just north of DC into MD with the 18z run. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

That initial WAA snowband on the 3k NAM was well into PA on 12z and now is just north of DC into MD with the 18z run. 

im going to pretend i live in central PA and watching the NAM hopelessy cave to the euro

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14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Well, here's your relevant NAM trend

namconus_T700_neus_fh45_trend.thumb.gif.c77c373cddecf17b8ccb9b7ccb1f4004.gif

Two things jump out. Position of the HP keeps pressing SW and wind barbs go nuts that last frame. Gotta think if that’s modeled poorly then temps roast more or it caves south

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast?

I've always taken the position that it's more about the post-storm measureables than anything.  Sure, its nice to enjoy the forecasts and the trends, but models aren't forecasts or trends, they're tools.  Tools that are used to create forecasts, and which trend in certain directions as the storm event nears.  But I caution you--  Models are not forecasts because they reveal nothing about the future and do not purport to predict the future, so do not fall into that trap.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

The 3K was great for the fall line NW....maybe even for Baltimore. Its close

With that initial WAA band pre-dawn Thursday, we get an extra 2-4", then another ~1" of snow, and then the sleet bomb (maybe 1-2" of sleet?). I'd take that verbatim. 

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15 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Sterling getting slightly snowier..

 

snowier.thumb.jpg.0c07ccde3d1feb47c6e616318b6a8be3.jpg

That's worse out this way. Not complaining since it likely factors in an anticipated flip E of the BR which is typically climo.

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Just now, Warm Nose said:

That's worse out this way. Not complaining since it likely factors in an anticipated flip E of the BR which is typically climo.

You know how often they tweak these before game time. I bet it changes 3-4 times before the first flakes come down. 

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ICON panels still coming out, but it looks pretty darn juiced. Nice to see models not lose any precip with some actually getting wetter as we get towards 40hrs until onset. Gives us a cushion for when/if they lose a bit of juice as they have so far during this winter in short range. 

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