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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021)  
  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE   
SNOWFALL WITH LAKE BAND PERSISTING. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO MOVE IT  
OFFSHORE PRETTY QUICK HERE THIS MORNING BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE   
SUPPORTING MORE PERSISTENCE THAN PROGRESSION AT THIS POINT. SPC  
MESO PAGE SHOWS THE IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AND THERMODYNAMICS AT  
PLAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.  
  
WILL LEAVE END TIMES TO HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND PONDER ANY SORT  
OF EXTENSION BASED ON TRENDS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.   
  
COLLAR  

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56 minutes ago, 500 mbvort said:

Meh wouldn’t trust the YYZ report as they always underestimate. Looks loke

more snow rolling in that can maybe push totals to 6”?

That was the old days with the nipher gauge.  They switched to a snow saber about 5 years or so and they've been fine since (Dare I say maybe even a bit generous with their measurements at times?).  I'm about 10 minutes from the airport and that report is not crazy. 

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Still snowing in Racine! I have no way to accurately measure this stuff now but I think it’s safe to say it’s over a foot of fresh stuff and still coming down (1-3 more in per the AFD). I really never thought I’d be getting higher snow totals here than most of cook county. What an absolute dump fest. This turned out to be one of my all time favorite snowfalls. What a delightful surprise. I’ll grab a few pictures in a bit.

I am officially satisfied with winter. Bring on the nadoes!


2s5z5bG.jpg

Guess I won’t be grilling on my deck today.

CwvpQxY.jpg

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
931 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
926 AM CST  
  
WHILE OUR MAIN SYSTEM SNOW HAS ENDED, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES  
BOTH ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS   
MORNING. AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WAUKEGAN HAVE BEEN   
REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER ONE MILE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW  
IS ONSHORE BOTH IN NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING,   
BUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES THE FOCUS SHOULD REALLY BE IN NORTHWEST   
IN. RADAR DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES   
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER TODAY BUT THERE   
ARE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT   
NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MOST OF THE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL  
CONTINUE AT IN SPOTS.   
  
KMD  

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Looks like our forecasts weren't so bad, eh? I mean, I wanted so badly to be wrong, but this has clearly not been our winter (relative to those around us). 

Had some hope from the HRRR and RAP that eastern McHenry Co might fare better in the 5-6" range but sometimes just doesn't go your way. Lake component factored in huge for Cook Co. as better synoptic snows fell further south and east. Hard to say it hasn't been our winter when looking at snow over my mailbox that's been on the ground since late December. It's been a really good run just not quite as epic as our friends in the city

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Just now, Cary67 said:

Had some hope from the HRRR and RAP that eastern McHenry Co might fare better in the 5-6" range but sometimes just doesn't go your way. Lake component factored in huge for Cook Co. as better synoptic snows fell further south and east. Hard to say it hasn't been our winter when looking at snow over my mailbox that's been on the ground since late December. It's been a really good run just not quite as epic as our friends in the city

As I said, relative to those around us. Everything is relative. And yeah, having not yet hit 30", I'm going to stick with not our winter. The fact Rockford managed to sneak out more is the real kicker. 

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

As I said, relative to those around us. Everything is relative. And yeah, having not yet hit 30", I'm going to stick with not our winter. The fact Rockford managed to sneak out more is the real kicker. 

You haven't hit 30"? Hmm.. I have myself at 34"

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43 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

That was the old days with the nipher gauge.  They switched to a snow saber about 5 years or so and they've been fine since (Dare I say maybe even a bit generous with their measurements at times?).  I'm about 10 minutes from the airport and that report is not crazy. 

Didn’t know that actually thanks for letting me know. Wonder if we get more snow late this week than this system. Looks like lake effect potential is good?

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14 minutes ago, featherwx said:

IMG-4290.jpgWhat it looked like around 4am when I got up to use the bathroom. It's been fun watching that SUV slowly turn into a "snowmobile" over the last couple of weeks. 

Remarkable. Could I share your photo on a different weather site?

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Been outside much of the morning cleaning up and just taking it all in.  What can I say.  I feel like a kid on Christmas morning.  Just an incredible sight to see so much snow on the ground.  Took some depth measurements and averaged out right around 24".  It is sort of hard to believe that I am here and not somewhere else like a snowbelt.  

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