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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus  *  snow measurements early on

 

Even adding in the potential missing snow, the gap would still be quite large.

As you mentioned, another attempt of the main LES band pushing into ORD has failed... Though riding the edge now is better than fully missing it like earlier.

Convergence is running right up the lake-shore, so unless that changes, it'll never fully make it into ORD.

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Very N/S orientation of the LE band. Benefitted areas near the lake like Uptown and Lakeview up north and areas just inland towards southern Cook like MDW. Actually not hearing much from downtown, but the wife is a questionable source...

There was a 7.8" report from the Loop at 8PM.

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Hard to measure considering I don’t have a real snow board, the wind and the previous snowpack but I’d say we’ve gotten around 4.5” of fresh powder today. Snowpack around 10”.

956D3C1D-C901-4D18-85AB-5061C482B657.jpeg

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KORD 160351Z 33012KT 1/2SM R10L/6000VP6000FT SN BLSN VV008 M14/M17 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP192 SNINCR 1/20 P0003 T11441172

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I live in a Subdivision where your next door neighbor’s house is 3 feet away. You can jump from roof top to roof top for as long as you can see. 
 

I don’t know where people are going to shovel their driveway snow. The mounds are already 5 feet high and we haven’t had a big snow in 50 days until now. 

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

can't ever quite make it to ORD though with the pushes

0 for 3 now

the storm total difference between ORD and MDW will be LOL X 10 

due to the above plus  *  snow measurements early on at ORD

 

Band never making it to ORD means * is likely not an *, or much less than some want to think.

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band now east of Midway 

you can tell on the I-55 west of Central Ave IDOT cam just NW of them Vis is up 

and nothing in obs this hour about snow depth and vis up to 1/2mile

meanwhile:

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       EVANSTON                42.04N 87.69W  
02/15/2021  M12.0 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            GETTING UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. 22 INCH   
            SNOW DEPTH.   
  

 

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0930 PM HEAVY SNOW EVANSTON 42.04N 87.69W  

02/15/2021 M12.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER    

GETTING UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. 22 INCH   SNOW DEPTH.

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More heavier bands moving into the GTA over the next hour. Should hopefully ramp up accumulations. 

At last OBS, YYZ recorded 0" unofficially. Not sure if that is correct. 

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1 hour ago, snowcaine said:

I usually find that an average between Kuchera and 10:1 works out best. Unless it's lake effect or slop, then Kuchera all the way.

7" seems like a good bet to me at this stage.

More heavier bands just about to cross over Lake Erie as per radar. That should tick up accumulations. 6-8"+ still looks like a good call atm. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

More heavier bands just about to cross over Lake Erie as per radar. That should tick up accumulations. 6-8"+ still looks like a good call atm. 

200 mile NW shift in last 2 days of this storm. Pretty remarkable. Weather models are getting worse it seems.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

200 mile NW shift in last 2 days of this storm. Pretty remarkable. Weather models are getting worse it seems.

I agree, they are. It's going to be a nice storm for both of us. How's the current conditions in Buffalo right now? 

We'll need to monitor the mid-week event as well. Tonight's guidance trended weaker and further south. Wonder if we'll run into the same issue. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree, they are. It's going to be a nice storm for both of us. How's the current conditions in Buffalo right now? 

We'll need to monitor the mid-week event as well. Tonight's guidance trended weaker and further south. Wonder if we'll run into the same issue. 

2-3" so far. Waiting for that dry slot and mixture that is heading up from Ohio.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

blizzard conditions outside. stormy, blowing, drifting. Will be fun to wake up in the morning. 

Will be fun when it stops so I can sleep lol

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You and me have a different view of what blizzard conditions are.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=

He is right though, we have gusted over 30kts off and on. Yeah it isn't a lake effect firehose but that is a special type of blizzard conditions.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

He is right though, we have gusted over 30kts off and on. Yeah it isn't a lake effect firehose but that is a special type of blizzard conditions.

That is like 1" per hour snowfall rates max. I thought blizzard was 35+ mph+?

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KMDW 160453Z 33012KT 1/2SM R31C/4000VP6000FT SN BLSN VV007 M14/M17 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP187 SNINCR 1/25 P0001 T11391167 $

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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You and me have a different view of what blizzard conditions are.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=

There are definitely near-whiteouts from all this dry snow blowing around and it’s drifting pretty good. Ground truth is more dramatic than it appears on radar. As someone who grew up with Mass. blizzards, this looks like a pretty good (if relatively short-lived) one on the ground. 

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All other occurrences of an official 20"+ snow depth in Chicago:

 

2/7 - 2/8, 1895

1/11 - 1/16, 1918

1/26 - 2/5, 1918

1/27 - 1/31, 1967

2/2 - 2/11, 1967

1/14 - 2/8, 1979

2/12 - 2/22, 1979

2/8/2011

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That is like 1" per hour snowfall rates max. I thought blizzard was 35+ mph+?

Its at least 1" an hour. You don't need ANY snowfall to make blizzard conditions. We had near 0.1 mile visibility on February 4th with 2-3"/hr rates in a band...with very little wind, blizzard conditions never crossed my mind. Tonight definitely is blizzard conditions. Honestly, I prefer straight down snow over blizzard conditions however they are definitely fun. 

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Finally winding down here, I think lol.  Been snowing consistently since about 2 pm not counting  wave one.  Always been steady SN to +SN with wide types of dendrites.  Roads out here are trash, some with 4 to 6 ft drifts.  Walked out to my road with the dogs around 9 and there were a couple drifts that came up to my chest and I'm 6'2".  So we're stuck for awhile.  Weather station recorded sustained 25KT winds for more than an hour a couple times, once when that first fgen band came through around 2-3, and the 2nd from about 6- 8:30 or so.  Highest gust was 38KT's  at 7:55.  Plenty of gusts over 30KT's throughout.  About the craziest and most fun snow event since I moved here, maybe because we just don't see a system like that around here very often.

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9 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

There are definitely near-whiteouts from all this dry snow blowing around and it’s drifting pretty good. Ground truth is more dramatic than it appears on radar. As someone who grew up with Mass. blizzards, this looks like a pretty good (if relatively short-lived) one on the ground. 

Morning will be fun playing with the snowblower in the drifts and trying to get a measurement. 

Screenshot_20210216-002639_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210216-002634_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210216-002627_Gallery.jpg

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