Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

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Hmm.. with all the sports betting apps, I think we need one to bet for or against the models.   Who here can build it?   

Finder's fee rules apply :)

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I knew someone would really cash in with this dynamic ML energy after I got Severe T-storm warned thundersnow Saturday evening.  Bad Kuchera maps let much of my sub down but better late (farther east) than never, congrats to all that made bank on a wild one.

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9.0” (roughy) impossible to measure accurately

2.1” yesterday morning 

11.1” total. Snow depth about 15” 

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LES still decent and over SE WI with lake county IL getting light snow Waukegan now at 3/4 mile Vis

Racine had SN+ at 14z and both Racine and MKE have 1/2 mile vis with SN at 15z

HRRR seems slightly too far east with the band...RAP better and brings 1-3 more for eastern Cook county later

  
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
850 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0849 AM     SNOW             1 WNW WIND POINT        42.79N 87.79W  
02/16/2021  M14.8 INCH       RACINE             WI   PUBLIC 

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Measured 11 inches on the lid of the garbage can in the alley.  Measurements in the alley where anywhere from 15" down to 8" in windswept areas. Under the big pine tree, measured 11 inches.  Somewhat sheltered, unobstructed areas, anywhere from 12" to 15".  

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That lake effect band did not disappoint, 8" after 10 pm last night (per measurement pic on my car after I cleaned it off) to bring it to ~15" storm total here.

Who would've imagined after the first 1-footer in 6 years that we'd get another one two weeks later

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Enjoying the bright blue sun and -5 wind chills but gotta imagine that lake band will slide down and push the immediate lakefront over 20" total later today

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Haven't had a storm this drifty in awhile. Interesting that some of the windiest observations came right here in Southeast Michigan, seems odd so far from the low track. Some sweet drifts out there but makes it hard to measure. Going with 8.3" for the main wave and then when you add the 2" from yesterday morning it would be 10.3" over the past 30 hours. Avg snow depth 14".  I would say the models did well with the storm here but as always we saw the cold temperatures and assumed higher ratios than it would be.  This event was pure powder, some of the drifts are even packed, until the very end when we are adding a little fluff on top. Can't wait to go out and play. 

Is that including all the snow this morning?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
(ISSUED 910 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021)  
  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE   
SNOWFALL WITH LAKE BAND PERSISTING. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO MOVE IT  
OFFSHORE PRETTY QUICK HERE THIS MORNING BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE   
SUPPORTING MORE PERSISTENCE THAN PROGRESSION AT THIS POINT. SPC  
MESO PAGE SHOWS THE IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AND THERMODYNAMICS AT  
PLAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND.  
  
WILL LEAVE END TIMES TO HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW AND PONDER ANY SORT  
OF EXTENSION BASED ON TRENDS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.   
  
COLLAR  

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5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

20210216-034745.jpg

Great documentation of the storm, Alek. Would you mind if I added some of your photos to my winter storms photos site. Just let me know, as your email box was full.

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Officially 12.4" in Toledo.  Pretty Epic.  Peak came between 12-1:30am when I measured 2" .  Really looked like a Blizzard for about 2 hours.  

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Great documentation of the storm, Alek. Would you mind if I added some of your photos to my winter storms photos site. Just let me know, as your email box was full.

of course

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56 minutes ago, 500 mbvort said:

Meh wouldn’t trust the YYZ report as they always underestimate. Looks loke

more snow rolling in that can maybe push totals to 6”?

That was the old days with the nipher gauge.  They switched to a snow saber about 5 years or so and they've been fine since (Dare I say maybe even a bit generous with their measurements at times?).  I'm about 10 minutes from the airport and that report is not crazy. 

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9.5” event total for here north of Lima. Total depth including previous snow pack would be 14-15”. Most snow we’ve had in years. Several drifts reaching waist-high depths. 

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1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

2.25" in McHenry. 

Rockford got more. smdh. 

Received 2.75" here. 

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Still snowing in Racine! I have no way to accurately measure this stuff now but I think it’s safe to say it’s over a foot of fresh stuff and still coming down (1-3 more in per the AFD). I really never thought I’d be getting higher snow totals here than most of cook county. What an absolute dump fest. This turned out to be one of my all time favorite snowfalls. What a delightful surprise. I’ll grab a few pictures in a bit.

I am officially satisfied with winter. Bring on the nadoes!


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Guess I won’t be grilling on my deck today.

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2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Received 2.75" here. 

Looks like our forecasts weren't so bad, eh? I mean, I wanted so badly to be wrong, but this has clearly not been our winter (relative to those around us). 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
931 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
926 AM CST  
  
WHILE OUR MAIN SYSTEM SNOW HAS ENDED, LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES  
BOTH ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS   
MORNING. AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WAUKEGAN HAVE BEEN   
REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER ONE MILE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW  
IS ONSHORE BOTH IN NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN THIS MORNING,   
BUT AS THE DAY CONTINUES THE FOCUS SHOULD REALLY BE IN NORTHWEST   
IN. RADAR DEPICTIONS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES   
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER TODAY BUT THERE   
ARE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT   
NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MOST OF THE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL  
CONTINUE AT IN SPOTS.   
  
KMD  

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Looks like our forecasts weren't so bad, eh? I mean, I wanted so badly to be wrong, but this has clearly not been our winter (relative to those around us). 

Had some hope from the HRRR and RAP that eastern McHenry Co might fare better in the 5-6" range but sometimes just doesn't go your way. Lake component factored in huge for Cook Co. as better synoptic snows fell further south and east. Hard to say it hasn't been our winter when looking at snow over my mailbox that's been on the ground since late December. It's been a really good run just not quite as epic as our friends in the city

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Going to guess we got about 8 inches here. Total snow depth is 14”. Most I’ve seen on the ground at once in years. Northern Indiana finally delivered some childhood memories.

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Just now, Cary67 said:

Had some hope from the HRRR and RAP that eastern McHenry Co might fare better in the 5-6" range but sometimes just doesn't go your way. Lake component factored in huge for Cook Co. as better synoptic snows fell further south and east. Hard to say it hasn't been our winter when looking at snow over my mailbox that's been on the ground since late December. It's been a really good run just not quite as epic as our friends in the city

As I said, relative to those around us. Everything is relative. And yeah, having not yet hit 30", I'm going to stick with not our winter. The fact Rockford managed to sneak out more is the real kicker. 

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1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

As I said, relative to those around us. Everything is relative. And yeah, having not yet hit 30", I'm going to stick with not our winter. The fact Rockford managed to sneak out more is the real kicker. 

You haven't hit 30"? Hmm.. I have myself at 34"

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