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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2

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After the kuchera euro, if we are to trust they fixed the bug, 12 inches is possible in Cincy. I am terrified of another NW shift though, it's getting too close to those lower amounts for me.

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New thread same storm
My response to your WxBell Kuchera issue response lol: Oh yeah agree, maybe they liked the publicity with those going viral on Twitter? Was probably a begrudging change made more urgent because Pivotal came out with Kuchera maps for the Euro.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Just now, Jim Martin said:

More than 20:1 snow ratio there.

Yeah, not by much though. Would be nice to get that QPF with a good clipper. Hope it pans out or even over achieves, tomorrows high is only 6 degrees coming off an overnight low forecast at -1. Not sure what to think with the surface low so far from the cold sector, I'd take improved ratios over more QPF any day, easier to shovel and disappears quicker when it does warm back up.

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23 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

After the kuchera euro, if we are to trust they fixed the bug, 12 inches is possible in Cincy. I am terrified of another NW shift though, it's getting too close to those lower amounts for me.

I think the last NW shift was a glitch, because it came back SE on the next run. It's expected to start in 5 hours. We are really entering the nowcast portion of the event. Time to start watching the pressure falls and where things establish and move. 

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Just now, miamarsden8 said:

Would 20:1 give us better snow totals or?

Always, when in relation to QPF amount. typical snowfall at 10:1 gives 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of precipitation. Get that to 20:1 ratios and you're looking at 20 inches of snow from the same precipitation. 

 

Last snow here we had 50:1 ratios, which would equate to 50 inches of snow per the same QPF. Way different thermal profiles here though, but should be in the 12:1 to  20:1 for most with exceptions for a few.

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7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

As far as I know.

So if that's the case, I'd argue Cincys total is probably closer to 12 than the forecast 6-9. My call of 6-10 might be lower that it should be.

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8 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

So if that's the case, I'd argue Cincys total is probably closer to 12 than the forecast 6-9. My call of 6-10 might be lower that it should be.

By Cincy's forecast you are expecting 7.5" on .78" QPF which is a shade under 10:1 ratios. Probably should not assume 20:1 ratios there, it's all about the thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere amongst other things I am not qualified to speak for. 

 

image.png.d31aa50c15faeb5e0262f0d6a5fb6b61.png

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1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

By Cincy's forecast you are expecting 7.5" on .78" QPF which is a shade under 10:1 ratios. Probably should not assume 20:1 ratios there, it's all about the thermal profiles throughout the atmosphere amongst other things I am not qualified to speak for. 

 

image.png.d31aa50c15faeb5e0262f0d6a5fb6b61.png

15:1 could be possible though yeah? Because at 15:1 even that's absurd.

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Just now, miamarsden8 said:

15:1 could be possible though yeah? Because at 15:1 even that's absurd.

I wish I could answer that with an educated response, but I cannot and will not try to. Probably should not have earlier, but I'm drinking myself to sleep tonight and felt pretty smart :lol:

 

Hopefully it produces for you regardless, enjoy it and treat it like the last is all I can suggest.

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50 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

NWS Cleveland mentioning risk of snowfall rates 1-2" per hour tomorrow night across their CWA.

This is the part of the discussion that Jim mentioned earlier from CLE:

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=cle&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The big weather story for the near term period is the
significant Winter Storm developing across the south central
CONUS and Gulf Coast region. This Winter Storm will bring heavy
snowfall and big travel impacts Monday into Tuesday.

Quiet weather is expected for this evening. Below-normal low
temperatures eventually reach the lower and middle teens
overnight. High and mid level clouds and moisture will increase
this evening ahead of the initial mid level wave of energy in
the broader southwest flow aloft. Forecast confidence is high
along with good agreement in model guidance of widespread light
snow developing southwest of our region tonight. Isentropic lift
will allow snow to gradually overspread our CWA from the south
and west after midnight tonight. We are expecting this quick
hitter of primarily light snow to impact the Monday morning
commute. Bursts of moderate snow should occur as moderately-
strong ascent manages to be maximized in a cloudy DGZ at times.
Fresh snowfall by midday Monday is expected to reach 1 to 3
inches. That system will be out of the region by midday and will
be followed by lingering light snow through the afternoon as
weak isentropic lift occurs and some slight lake-enhancement of
snow happens generally south and especially southwest of Lake
Erie. Additional snow accumulations should be less than one inch
Monday afternoon. Daytime highs should range from the upper
teens in the far west to the mid 20`s in the far east.

There have been some changes and adjustments for the main winter
storm system impacting the region Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Guidance has shifted the track northwest along with
higher QPF and available moisture. Forecast models have also
shown a slightly stronger system and a very favorable track to
bring heavy snowfall to our area Monday night. The Monday
evening travel commute may be highly impacted and challenging
as the snow quickly ramps up. We are highlighting the 5 pm to 5
am time frame as the worse conditions and the heaviest snowfall
rates. We may see a decent deformation zone develop tomorrow
evening as this system gets fully developed and bands of heavy
snow with rates 1 to 2 inches per hour potentially. The other
wild card will be the increasing northeasterly low level flow
and surface winds tomorrow night coming across the long fetch of
Lake Erie. We may see some lake enhancement of heavier snow as
well near the lakeshore areas from the Cleveland metro area to
the Toledo area. Our overall snowfall forecast totals are
widespread 8 to 12 inches with lower amounts closer to east
central Ohio and the higher amounts further northwest and
lakeshore areas. There is some potential for pockets of higher
amounts over 12 inches especially if we have some lake
enhancements or true lake effect snow showers as this system
pulls away Tuesday morning.

 

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6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

NAM coming in more North?

Looks like it will at least throw more snow farther northwest.

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

too early in the run to know.

Trying to look downstream for guidance.. Looking more NW than the 18Z at this stage

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Just now, WHEATCENT said:

the NAM is showing a mix when its in the mid 20s

possible?

Everything is possible. Louisville had freezing rain the other day with ground temps around 17.

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