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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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Good run. Man what a great winter it's been up here..pushing March at the end of the euro now. If someone told me I was going to pull nearly 3ft in a storm, barely snow the rest of the winter, and my lowest temp would be warmer than DFW I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Colder look though. Good to be se and weak for now until the nw trends happen...assuming southern vorts which typically do...happen this time.

Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The EPS is probably similar to last suite.

 

I hate that run, not the event.

I was a little surprised how dry it was...it didn't look that bad aloft. It wasn't 2/1/21 either, but there's still some upside to this one, even if somewhat limited.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the ceiling is that 5-10" range I used.

If things worked out I could see some 10-14 type amounts....but that would likely require more of a capture at the end. Those amounts are unlikely, but still possible in this setup.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't hate where it is right now. It's pretty close to a much better system.

Yea. I think this can tick stronger for eastern areas. This is the type of event where TBlizz and crew complain about weak sauce but then the day before the storm the sauce comes in hot and spicy... so they drop their pants, bend over, and take 12 inches.  

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This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better.

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Just now, George001 said:

This is one of the drier runs yet when using kuchera it still gives 6-8 inches of snow. As long as it doesn’t trend that’s a good sign that the euro is still giving us 6-8 inches during a weaker run. It needs some work, but it’s not far from something much better.

George, the euro isn’t giving that much snow.  The vendor using whatever off label formula they choose to is.

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Just now, weathafella said:

George, the euro isn’t giving that much snow.  The vendor using whatever off label formula they choose to is.

Fair point, but in a setup like this with cold upper levels as well as surface, and strong jet dynamics, I would lean towards even those kuchera maps being underdone like they were during the Superbowl storm. There is tons of jet energy with this system, which leads me to believe that the models are underestimating the precip from the storm. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty weak sauce from Euro...it's cold but not all that prolific. It tries to get going late, but not quite enough. I do like how that vorticity is a little more concentrated at 84h....that's what could help pop this thing before it pulls off to the east.

 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Not you. Someone 

You mean this one?

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