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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Looks like there is a pretty solid layer of Ice (with maybe even snow on it) from south central Cook county SE to Lake/Porter border area on the SW tip of the lake

north of there is Ice just offshore but this looks more like ice flows with some gaps 

any thoughts on that being a factor ? do the models factor this in when spitting out the huge LES numbers inland?

 

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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Not sure if it's being mentioned much, but that's a hell of a DGZ to work with. Ratios are going to be sky-high on a broad swath of N/NW flank of the storm. DGZs are between 200-400mb in depth and wind shear is low, which would cut down on shattering/breaking aggregates. Saturation isn't great, but it's not bad, either. Pretty telling when the pos-snow depth change products on the models are significantly higher than the classic 10:1 maps. You don't often see that kind of delta.

Haven’t seen this guy in a hot minute 

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HWO calling for 2-5" now so ILX not biting on the higher totals for some reason

 

Quote
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1215 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-062-066-151200-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-
Shelby-Vermilion-
1215 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Dangerous wind chills are forecast through Monday morning. Feels-
like temperatures between 15 and 25 degrees below zero will be
common.

Snow is expected this afternoon and tonight, with 1 to 3 inches
of accumulation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Snow will continue through Monday, with total accumulations of 2
to 5 inches. North winds gusting over 20 mph could produce
drifting snow, primarily on east west roadways.

 

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1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Haven’t seen this guy in a hot minute 

Busy getting shut-out of winter storms in southern Maryland nowadays, or iced (like yesterday), but this one caught my eye. Arctic powder bombs are fun and challenging to forecast.

 

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6 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I don't understand why the warnings are so far north along the IN/IL border on the IN side but drop much further south on the IL side. Can anyone explain ?

STL's criteria is >=6 inches I believe. They haven't updated their AFD or forecast since this morning at 6, before the NW shift; they were calling 4-6'' which is under their warning criteria. 

"Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly
what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall
for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high
with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall
amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west
central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA.
These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max
SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is
our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The
winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering
the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include
the remainder of the northern CWA."
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Certainly no reason to expect better up here.
That's not really an accurate statement. There's multi model support for higher than 1-2" amounts, especially for eastern half of the county. 1-3" looks reasonable for RFD.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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20 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I meant relatively. Also this board doesnt count the eastern lakes. Most people here are from western OH west.

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this.

Or does that not count? 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea they rarely do. Very last second on everything. Even are local TV mets are going higher. 

Yeah, I don't get it. For KSPI:

 

12Z's

 

HRRR- 9.3"

UK(10:1)- 4.4"

GFS- 5.5"

GFS v16- 11.0

NAM- 9.9"

Euro- 7.4"

Canadian- 9.0"

9Z SREF plume Mean- 6.31"

 

 

 

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It makes sense from an operational standpoint to protect your low end at this point until more guidance picks up the trend towards a more negatively tilted mid/upper trough, especially since an error of even 0.1 to 0.2 of liquid with 20-30:1 SLRs can result in a pretty sizeable bust. But I will say that the NAM has been absolutely killing it on the east coast at these ranges, beating even the Euro/UK (with the typical caveat about using high-res CAMs cautiously for some winter events). The GFS (and the new version as well) has been trending that way the past few runs as well, so keep a sharp eye out. It wouldn't really surprise me to see some convergence on that solution in the next 12-18 hours.

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51 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Question why are they outliers when u have the GFSv16,GEM, RGEM , UKMET and both NAMS pretty much in agreement? They could all be wrong but please back up your statement.

Lol, none of those models are as far west as the NAMs. The GEM/RGEM are somewhere in the middle, but the NAMs are, without a doubt, the furthest NW. 

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23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this.

Or does that not count? 

Dunno, havent been following it at all I'm a bit removed from winter. Just occasionally look at the forecasts from GRR and DTX. Also, i just mean its mostly affecting the eastern fringe and just east of there. I didnt say no one was getting anything. But yeah, if DTW gets warning out of it then thats a win, but I judge things by my hometown, which is posied to get a few inches regardless.

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15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 There are plenty of posters on this board from the Columbus, Cleveland, and Toronto areas. Some Buffalo too. 

I get it, but thats not the majority of the forum. I had said it seems to mostly miss the great lakes, if Im wrong i'm wrong. Im not tracking this storm, was just noting how crazy massive the warnings are and how it sweeps under my home area.

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3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Lol, none of those models are as far west as the NAMs. The GEM/RGEM are somewhere in the middle, but the NAMs are, without a doubt, the furthest NW. 

LOL 

all the the same for my backyard and all show more then 1-2 inches for u. The next time u r optimistic about a storm will be your first time. Enjoy your afternoon.

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12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It makes sense from an operational standpoint to protect your low end at this point until more guidance picks up the trend towards a more negatively tilted mid/upper trough, especially since an error of even 0.1 to 0.2 of liquid with 20-30:1 SLRs can result in a pretty sizeable bust. But I will say that the NAM has been absolutely killing it on the east coast at these ranges, beating even the Euro/UK (with the typical caveat about using high-res CAMs cautiously for some winter events). The GFS (and the new version as well) has been trending that way the past few runs as well, so keep a sharp eye out. It wouldn't really surprise me to see some convergence on that solution in the next 12-18 hours.

appreciate the input.

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