blue60007

Nice fluffer here. I haven't been out to measure, but eyeballing close to 2 inches. Looks like we might make a run at 3 based on radar.

Leaned out the upstairs window. Good 3 foot drift on the edge of the roof. Really impressive.

Just barely broke double digits here. Storm total 10.2 inches. Some drifts approaching 2 feet. Not bad at all.

Coming up on 8 inches here. Might just make double digits.

Flake size increasing here, on schedule, I believe.

4 inches here in IND and some pretty significant blowing and drifting, for the fairly dense/urban part I'm in. An hour to clear the sidewalk and driveway, and had near an inch covering where I started by the time I finished. Some nice weenie bands forming now down by EVV which should be fun later.

Already ripping here, a bit ahead of schedule.

Impressive (sorry, not sure why it made the image so massive)

Lookin' solid here.

IMO the biggest challenge is getting the initial conditions correct. A 100x more powerful supercomputer can't take detailed in-situ upper air measurements over the pacific. This is why using ensembles are so important when forecasting more than a couple days out.

At a minimum I doubt they can use an experimental/non-operational model in an operational forecast.

It does, and it takes into account the entire thermal profile (not just air temps). That said, the weather bell implementation is totally wonky, or they are purposely inflated. Their maps are always bonkers. The pivotal ones are more true to form, and slightly more realistic.

I hear you. I'm trying to not even look at the follow up storm later in the week just yet.

12z GFS with strong support from GEFS for a solid hit across much of IN and OH. GEFS seems a tad further NW of the op with the heaviest stripe. Looking solid for those of along and south of I-70. The extended range of the NAM supports a GFS solution as well.

Many of yesterday's 12z EPS members brought mix/ZR/rain up into central IN. The 0z and 6z EPS looks like a better track - very few mixing issues here, albeit drier. The GEFS is a similar situation. I like where we're at ATM, though do need to monitor any weaker/more sheared/drier trends today and tomorrow.