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Obs and nowcast Major Nor'easter near blizzard Sunday afternoon Jan 31 - Sunrise Wednesday Feb 3


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25 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

3pm:  Just reached 32* here in CI.   P> 29.64"    Some form of light-white is falling.       Here is the Radar, w/o type.

Looks like Cobb Method showing no snow after about 2pm was right so far.    Only mixed till end of storm.

EURO has three snow events after today totaling 10".     Feb. 05,07, 10.

1612210200-bToAlBSVW9I.png

I think we are done in CNJ. I don't see that filling in. 10-15 is good storm. Looks like Trenton area didn't get the goods this time. I'm on the edge of that dry slot now. Snow stopped around noon or so and changed to sleet, never changed fully back. 

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That pivot on radar is a thing of beauty.  I can see it, but I can't touch it; yet its still pretty to look at.

3:30PM: That being said, we just keep firing up more light to moderate to briefly heavy snow here.  Temp is up to 30.3  Snow stake has edged past 13" (Smithtown, NY)

I was looking at 18z NAM soundings right over my head (40.88, 73.21).  Despite precip type maps showing in green overnight (rain), the only place that gets over freezing  is right at the surface ... and just barely.  We are currently 2 degrees (F) colder than modeled.  I can see some drizzle or snizzle being the main p-type for a few hours.  All levels cool to freezing around sunrise and after that the 18z NAM keeps light snow going until almost July.  We may yet wind up with a very impressive total.  But that crazy band that has pivoted away from us sure is pretty. ;)

 

 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I think we are done in CNJ. I don't see that filling in. 10-15 is good storm. Looks like Trenton area didn't get the goods this time. I'm on the edge of that dry slot now. Snow stopped around noon or so and changed to sleet, never changed fully back. 

on to the next?  NBC has been talking about another big one for next Sunday and then an extreme shot of Arctic air.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The sleet line made it further inland more west than it did east.  Parents house in Merrick LI never went over but places in Brooklyn did 

It was hours long here in parts of NJ. Would have gotten close to 20 without it. Measured several areas and got between 14-15.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I think we are done in CNJ. I don't see that filling in. 10-15 is good storm. Looks like Trenton area didn't get the goods this time. I'm on the edge of that dry slot now. Snow stopped around noon or so and changed to sleet, never changed fully back. 

I agree. Dry slot is killing us

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Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

That pivot on radar is a thing of beauty.  I can see it, but I can't touch it; yet its still pretty to look at.

3:30PM: That being said, we just keep firing up more light to moderate to briefly heavy snow here.  Temp is up to 30.3  Snow stake has edged past 13" (Smithtown, NY)

I was looking at 18z NAM soundings right over my head (40.88, 73.21).  Despite precip type maps showing in green overnight (rain), the only place that gets over freezing through is right at the surface ... and just barely.  I can see some drizzle or snizzle being the main type for a few hours.  All levels cool to freezing around sunrise and after that the 18z NAM keeps light snow going until almost July.  We may yet wind up with a very impressive total.  But that crazy band that has pivoted away from us still is pretty.

 

29.8 here, also 13". Nice bands to our SE rotating up, we will get 15"+ from this baby, not a bad event...

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Holy crap! Did anyone see those videos of what happened in Williamsburg?? Freaking plow knocked all of the snow off the overpass onto the street below smashing out the rear windshields of all the parked cars. Craaazy

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Had light/moderate snow from about 11 am to noon then some heavy snow until close to 1 pm, when I measured 13.5" on average (wide variation) and then the sleet started in earnest and it's been mostly sleet with some snow at times since 1 pm.  Same thing happened in Jan-16 cutting a few inches off the snowfall.  Souds like the snow is moving back east towards us.  NWS still calling for 6-8" more through this evening.  My 19" call is still in range if we go back to snow.  29F here in Metuchen.  

 

Cleared the board after the changeover to sleet at 1 pm with that last measurement and have had about 1/2" of mostly sleet since then, so up to 14.0" as of 3 pm; we're back to light snow at 30F. HRRR still has most of E-PA/CNJ N of 276/195 getting 4-6" more through late evening (HRRR did well with showing the sleet that other models missed) and 2-4" south of there down through Philly over to LBI. Key question is whether we get that precip or the dreaded dry slot and if the rest of the precip will be snow, assuming we get it.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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Just now, nycemt123 said:

Holy crap! Did anyone see those videos of what happened in Williamsburg?? Freaking plow knocked all of the snow off the overpass onto the street below smashing out the rear windshields of all the parked cars. Craaazy

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Well NYC is about to pay out some $$$

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

 

Cleared the board after the changeover to sleet at 1 pm with that last measurement and have had about 1/2" of mostly sleet since then, so up to 14.0" as of 3 pm; we're back to light snow at 30F. HRRR still has most of E-PA/CNJ N of 276/195 getting 4-6" more through late evening (HRRR did well with showing the sleet that other models missed) and 2-4" south of there down through Philly over to LBI. Key question is whether we get that precip or the dreaded dry slot and if the rest of the precip will be snow, assuming we get it.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

wow...another 4-5" out on the island, impressive

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Cleared the board after the changeover to sleet at 1 pm with that last measurement and have had about 1/2" of mostly sleet since then, so up to 14.0" as of 3 pm; we're back to light snow at 30F. HRRR still has most of E-PA/CNJ N of 276/195 getting 4-6" more through late evening (HRRR did well with showing the sleet that other models missed) and 2-4" south of there down through Philly over to LBI. Key question is whether we get that precip or the dreaded dry slot and if the rest of the precip will be snow, assuming we get it.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Seeing some lighter snow again over here; wife let the dog out to poop; he wasn't satisfied with the path I cleared so he went on the pavers; went out to clean it up, couldn't find it;  covered already in the last 20 mins.

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