Bob Chill

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979

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6 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Noting light snow that won’t accumulate seems like an observation to me. Should we pick up some rates and this start to look like something legit, I will post it as well. 

Yeah, you might score in overtime.

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B4 I go back outside I want to drop a quick thought or 2. NAMs can eat an 8th of mushrooms sometimes but what they showed yesterday made a lot of sense to me. The solutions were literally the most common general outcomes of nearly all previous similar storms. It's debatable that us getting in on any goods keeps this type of event off the blowout loss list and into a well fought close game list that leaves fans feeling ok about the team. Yea, it could be better but man, it could be far far worse too. 

I'm not the thought police so everybody just do everybody. I get it. Me personally, I'm damn sure not going to let the lack of pt2 ruin today. I'm a battle scarred weenie and the simple fact that my yard is actually getting enough snow to cover everything sets this event apart from adding to my ptsd. 

Ob: 2.4" so far. Will update when 3-4" piles up. 

Eta: imo, it's too early to say pt 2 is a fail. History says that it prob will be but we havent crossed the point of no return for surprise coastal love for people somewhere in our sub

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24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

27/25, SN, 3.4"

Deck Pic!

Very nice !  Radar looks great for you (and me). Pretty sure you are gonna verify the 8-14” forecast by this evening.

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7 minutes ago, real said:

And it certainly looks like the big dry slot is about to head into DC., within an hour or so.

I think it’s arrived here west of you..few flurries still but couple of blue patches in the sky. 2 inches.  Not too shabby.  32

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5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

It was never supposed to be us w a Miller b / hybrid. That never happens here. Lol. 

That was never gonna happen here without a negative tilted trough and a capture around norfolk.

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Maybe around 3.5 in City of Richmond. It’s sleet and freezing rain now. I can’t complain though. Great sledding this morning with the kids. That’s a win

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Lots of back and forth between flurries and light snow. Saw rates back off and pick up about three times over the course of a 4.5 mile walk.

Went out for a mile for every inch it's snowed.

I imagine storm totals will come in around 5. A bit lower than I'd like. 

But it snowed. On a weekend. I'm out to make a snowman with my kids. It's a good time.

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Just starting here. Very little at the moment.   

Northern Delaware should start filling in shortly.

Static map

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Mostly needles in the lighter snow outside of the heavier bands here. Not too surprising given cloud-top temperatures in central MD are only around -10C.

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14 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Anyone else having trouble with WB models page?

Yes it was randomly not loading certain products when I was on there.

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10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

For as light as it looks to have been snowing, it is accumulated decently.  Eyeballing about 3".

I was at 3.6 half an hour ago. But the snow has lightened considerably now. I hope the GFS is right. If it is we will get another 7-8 inches or so. 

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Hard to read the room, but I guess it depends on where your back yard is and where you set the bar.  
 

What does the timing look like on energy transfer?  Overnight tonight?  Are there any indications of good bad or ugly so far with obs ?

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

9:30 am   ---- .5"

11:41 am ---- 1.1"

really beautiful out. Just got back from a walk.  The pup was in heaven. 

Looks like a snowstorm now. Beautiful out there.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Just starting here. Very little at the moment.   

Northern Delaware should start filling in shortly.

Static map

I havent been looking at models much so far yoday but that westward shift of the mix line down by RIC tells me easterly fetch is strenghtening with the coast. Experience tells me that this should fill in the dryslot and/or expand the shield westward over the next hour or so

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nam/gfs/cmc all show better lift moving in around 2-3pm.  it can be seen on the 850 fgen maps.  hopefully that translates to better rates.

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I’m still holding out for some major backfilling on this overrunning as the low organizes off the coast. And then we’ll still get a shot at the CCB. Let’s just see what happens and enjoy the day. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I havent been looking at models much so far yoday but that westward shift of the mix line down by RIC tells me easterly fetch is strenghtening with the coast. Experience tells me that this should fill in the dryslot and/or expand the shield westward over the next hour or so

Pivot!!!

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Don’t say that...if the coastal craps out it’s not so bad for south of me. They get 4-8” from the WAA but almost all my snow has to be from the corral. I’m getting fringed by the WAA 

Anyone trying to bank much on the coastal south of I-70 was definitely in prayer mode. The RGEM runs were fun in a cosmic way and it was great to joke around for a time, but unless other guidance started showing something similar, I just remained skeptical and cautionary, waiting to see if it kept it up and others joined in.

I thought the NAMs, the NSSL, the HRRR this morning, the ARW, the NMM, and the HREF would start to come around to the globals but they have shown the exact opposite. It would be a brutal beat for the local NWS offices, and that’s my main reason I feel down. If you haven’t worked in a NWS office, you don’t realize the amount of trust you lose busting a forecast like this and you get berated from all different directions and have to re-earn trust again. It would suck and I would feel for my colleagues. People are stupid and suck and don’t understand weather and it makes the matter worse.

I’m also still recovering from a back injury. I’m much better than a week ago, but I’m not 100%. I am irritated of how this year started and I have other personal stuff with family I’m not gonna talk about. It’s a tough time for me and seeing my friends here get pasted would make me happy. Hopefully everyone enjoys the snow today. I know I’d be out driving around in it, having an absolute blast. It’s such a joy for me and I miss it and I miss home.


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