Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[IowaStorm05]

And the 18z GFS repeats that CT River screw zone again. Not too bothered by it again at this far out 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

And the 18z GFS repeats that CT River screw zone again. Not too bothered by it again at this far out 

Well you also don’t live there 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Kbosch said:

I hope the GFS looks awful until it's literally snowing. Utterly useless. I'd be worried if it showed a big hit.

Yea. It was crushing DC to Philly with the 01/28 event 4 days out...and those weenies never got a chance to rev their snowblowers.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It was crushing DC to Philly with the 01/28 event 4 days out...and those weenies never got a chance to rev their snowblowers.

Neither did we.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nah I don’t think it’d be exhaust if it tucked in.

Oh I know.

[IowaStorm05]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well you also don’t live there 

I don’t live IN it that is true. But I’m still on the edges of it....at Willi River level. But my dad does live there and He likes snow too! 
 

Not that anyone cares but my sister takes the cake of us all.... living on a hill in Coventry at like 700 feet.

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully it’s a subpar model especially with coastals.

V.16 is a CT dream! Nothing like what it's replacing.

I am still worried about suppression.

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/high-impact-long-duration-major-winter.html

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/high-impact-long-duration-major-winter.html

Wow, impressive.  Go big or go home.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully it’s a subpar model especially with coastals.

I don't know if I agree with this assessment outside of this pattern type

It's not a good model in slow hemisphere -no. It's got that weird x-coordinate ( west to east ) velocity bias, and when the blocking hemisphere kicks in, it's in constant fight against.

Remember just 40 days ago, the Euro was bullied on, and the GFS was performing better?  ...   later next week, we may be crying for mercy from the Euro D8 bombs while the GFS takes it to the shed because the gradient appears slated to retake the dominant characteristic of the hemisphere when the -EPO tipping bucket dumps its loading into Canada and vroom -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

V.16 is a CT dream! Nothing like what it's replacing.

I am still worried about suppression.

Yup. It’s been fairly consistent with a coastal crush job but we can’t count on it. 

[IowaStorm05]

V16 says the storm doesn’t care that the CT River valley is there.

Just like how last night the west coast storm didn’t care that there was a 12,000 Sierra crest in front of Reno and dumped a foot of snow on my cousin there anyway 

these storms just don’t care. 

[WeatherX]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

V.16 is a CT dream! Nothing like what it's replacing.

I am still worried about suppression.

Would definitely be a good start for the new version if it verifies

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know if I agree with this assessment outside of this pattern type

It's not a good model in slow hemisphere -no. It's got that weird x-coordinate ( west to east ) velocity bias, and when the blocking hemisphere kicks in, it's in constant fight against.

Remember just 40 days ago, the Euro was bullied on, and the GFS was performing better?  ...   later next week, we may be crying for mercy from the Euro D8 bombs while the GFS takes it to the shed because the gradient appears slated to retake the dominant characteristic of the hemisphere when the -EPO tipping bucket dumps its loading into Canada and squish -

Fair enough. I’m just having a hard time remembering when it performed well with a significant ec winter storm...that’s all. 

Not saying the solution is not plausible because it is, eps members show that, but until there is more evidence to back it...I’ll weigh it very very lightly.

[mahk_webstah]

I think we are now at the point in this process where overnight and tomorrow we see if we get a trend a little more north west or a little more Southeast. I think will know the deal by this time tomorrow

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. It’s been fairly consistent with a coastal crush job but we can’t count on it. 

Lemme see! Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/high-impact-long-duration-major-winter.html

Did Dick Tolleris get ahold of your phone?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sister is flying from Denver to NYC Tuesday night.  Reschedule?

[PhineasC]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sister is dying from Denver to NYC Tuesday night.  Reschedule?

That’s a long way to die.   

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fair enough. I’m just having a hard time remembering when it performed well with a significant ec winter storm...that’s all. 

Not saying the solution is not plausible because it is, eps members show that, but until there is more evidence to back it...I’ll weigh it very very lightly.

mm... how long since we've had a significant "EC" winter storm tho -

three years by my count minimum... Have to go back a ways to get a K.U. true and blue ribbon winner.  

seems we've been in a decreasing frequency for that type, while in an overall increased frequency for active weather - probably owing to fast flows and gradient flow types rapidly transporting things along .. But we probably don't need to be too ridged in what defines a K.U. ?  I mean is there a check list -

I always thought of those "EC" threats as being DCA flirts while PHL-NYC-BOS are all under hard headline warnings and blizzard rumors

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Lemme see! Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

CTRV FTW!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm... how long since we've had a significant "EC" winter storm tho -

three years by my count minimum... Have to go back a ways to get a K.U. true and blue ribbon winner.  

seems we've been in a decreasing frequency for that type, while in an overall increased frequency for active weather - probably owing to fast flows and gradient flow types rapidly transporting things along .. But we probably don't need to be too ridged in what defines a K.U. ?  I mean is there a check list -

I always thought of those "EC" threats as being DCA flirts while PHL-NYC-BOS are all under hard headline warnings and blizzard rumors

There was a big EC storm back on Dec17 and the pope has not returned to his homeland ever since, all because of the gfs. 

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

this looks like a rip-off version of one of those day 3 euro runs for Jan 2015, which jacked Trenton-NYC and gave Eastern Mass the occluded snows. Probably chop off 30% of those totals though.

[Typhoon Tip]

The ICON rots a CCB conveyor after a 4-6 hours of heavy frontage -...

probably 7-10" in 6 hours, followed by another 10" over the next day to day and half with that stall and mid level evolution working in tandem.

That's probably about the best run I've seen ..close contender with the Euro ...for photogenic look, as well, maximizing what moderate S/W mechanics can do in an overall ( wasted? ) favorable large synopsis.

heh... stinger of the CCB down in Va Beach!  that be a whack big low man

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

this looks like a rip-off version of one of those day 3 euro runs for Jan 2015, which jacked Trenton-NYC and gave Eastern Mass the occluded snows. Probably chop off 30% of those totals though.

Ha. Big difference this time would be blocking in place.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ha. Big difference this time would be blocking in place.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there seems to be a similar level of traffic downstream between both of these events, regardless of calculated NAO indices. We didn't have the omega block in 2015 though.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well there it is, best run thus far WOR.. Only downhill from here, lol

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Well there it is, best run thus far WOR.. Only downhill from here, lol

Enjoy it now, we both know where this is headed. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The thing that makes the Pope look really bad is he was so adamant he was going to be right.. was very smug about it. Then when he was 110% wrong... he didn’t own up to and admit his mistake. He just stopped posting. Everyone makes mistakes and busts. But own  up to it @jbenedet. Learn and understand why it happened and where you went wrong. Your’re fresh out of college and young. Don’t just run away with the deflated football. It’s a really bad look