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Chicago Storm

Jan 25-26th Potential Something Part 3

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Historically where the placement of the LP is on the HRRR has done very well across SE Michigan I think we are in for a overachiever here. 

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2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Am I seeing the radar returns right in N IL? Looks like the snow is just drying up around I-88 over the last hour. 

 

I was just outside feeding the animals and it's barely snowing at all.

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6 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

Am I seeing the radar returns right in N IL? Looks like the snow is just drying up around I-88 over the last hour. 

 

Hi everyone! Finally created an account... yes you are seeing correct. I'm in the Wrigleyville area and it is as dry as could be, hoping that changes but it is not fun with that band just south doing nothing.

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10 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Historically where the placement of the LP is on the HRRR has done very well across SE Michigan I think we are in for a overachiever here. 

I may get dryslotted here. should hopefully be a good burst of snow first though. 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I may get dryslotted here. should hopefully be a good burst of snow first though. 

Nothing like a glorious Down River Dryslot haha 

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

dryslot number 2 about to cut off the precip here again 

 

:(

Models have done abysmal with this. They kind of picked up on the morning one but I didn't expect one tonight again. We won't even get an inch of snow. Looks like a glaze of sleet and ice with a dusting. Dry air FTL 

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the bulk of the snow falls after midnight around Chicago metro 

A total flip from what's been modeled for days and what's still in the LOT forecast graphics. 

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as for weds the 26th

pretend you didn't see the models....

just by looking at the Water vapor and infrared that is a pretty decent mid/upper level low over AZ now

I assume that is the weak weds system.... but looks pretty stout at this point

 

 

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18 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

. We won't even get an inch of snow. 

parts of central IL south of us  (SPI, DEC) got 1 to 1.7 inches  this morning

so they might even end up with more snow

comical

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
908 PM CST MON JAN 25 2021  

UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST MON JAN 25 2021  
  
THE DRY SLOT ALOFT IS QUICKLY REMOVING OUR SOURCE OF ICE CRYSTALS  
ALOFT, THUS SHUTTING DOWN MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  

RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH  
THROUGH OUR CWA. THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECIP WILL BE COMPLETELY DONE  
FOR THE NIGHT, HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE  
PRESENT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH, SO WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME NEW  
RADAR RETURNS RE-DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AT LEAST AREAS   
NORTH OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON. ALL IN ALL,  
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING TO FALL SHORT OF ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS.  

THE STEADY BAND OF SNOW IS LOOKING TO SET UP JUST NORTHWEST OF  
KNOX COUNTY, SO WE WILL LIKELY MISS THE 6" AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE WE HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN STRONG THE REST OF THE NIGHT, POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE PRESENT,   
SO WILL NOT PULL ANY HEADLINES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN  
ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE  
DIMINISHING/ENDING OF PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND SET THE  
STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIP EVEN FOR OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES FROM 10 PM TO 2 AM. KNOX AND STARK COULD REMAIN IN THE  
STEADY LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE HEAVY SNOW BAND APPEARS TO BE ORIENTING  
IN THE TROWAL A BIT NORTHWEST OF THERE.   
  
THE ICING IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONLY AROUND  
0.1" OR LESS, BUT REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE SO FAR. TRAVEL IMPACTS  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR ADVISORY  
EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT, AND WILL LET THAT OCCUR AS PLANNED. THE  
NORTHERN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING   
COUNTIES IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. ANOTHER PERIOD  
OF MEASURABLE SNOW IT PROJECTED TO CROSS THAT AREA TOMORROW  
MORNING, ALBEIT LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR AND COLLABORATE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER  
HEADLINES.  
  
UPDATED FORECAST INFO SHOULD ALREADY BE AVAILABLE.   
  

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Snow has been real nice the past few hours.  Looks like we should eclipse the 3" mark in the next hour as the dry slot reaches here.  Gonna have to rally later tonight and tomorrow to get to that magical 6" mark though.  

EDIT:  DVN just updated their map and lowered totals for the QCA to 3-6"

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Not really sure how much longer I'll have power here in Noblesville. Been flickering on and off for better part of the last 3 hours and the numbers around me are growing rapidly. I guess that's been the case for most around and north of 70.

Everything is coated in just the slightest glaze and you can hear things starting to creak with the wind. Will see if I can get out to get an idea of how much ice has accumulated.

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It appears a pocket of pretty heavy snow is about to move into cyclone's area.

This has been a pretty unimpressive storm here in Cedar Rapids so far.  Even though there is green over us on radar, it's barely snowing again.  Even the best rates I saw tonight probably weren't much more than 0.5"/hr.  As cyclone says, DVN has lowered Cedar Rapids to 4-7", with a bit heavier snow north like a few models were hinting at.  The HRRR and NAM suggest we may only get a few more inches on top of the small amount that has fallen so far.  I don't even feel like going out to measure because it's not worth the trouble.

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1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

Is LOT down?

I've been having issues with it on RadarScope. I ended up switching to MDW and ILX to view my area.

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Some moderate snow here. Starting to accumulate but not terribly efficiently. It’s remained all snow as far as I know.

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Of course LOT goes down. Just stepped outside. It feels like a mid-winter storm. It's gusty, the little snow that has fallen is blowing - it's not a wet snow. The flakes that are falling are aggregates, there's just not a lot of them. You'd think the gusts would tear them apart.

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Milwaukee update

UPDATE...
(Issued 1002 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Based on water vapor imagery, it looks like models are really
struggling with the placement of the mid-level wave as it slowly
rotates and weakens across eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Radar trends
are misleading this evening, as dry air has won out thus far.
However, we are finally starting to seeing ceilings lower across far
southwest Wisconsin and have reports that snow is beginning to fall
across southeast portions of Wisconsin. So, we do still expect
widespread snow to lift across southern Wisconsin late
tonight, bringing impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

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