• Member Statistics

    16,619
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    City Central
    Newest Member
    City Central
    Joined
snowman19

February 2021

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

When is the last year NYC metro had significant snow on the ground the entire month of February ? 

Both February 2014 and February 2015 had snow cover of 1” or more on every day.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not bad for an average temperature above freezing.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
AVG Temperature
2021 24 33.2
2020 0 40.2
2019 2 36.2
2018 1 42.0
2017 6 41.6
2016 2 37.7
2015 28 23.9
2014 28 31.6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing how quick a foot of snow has melted in 3 days-partial cover here, but lots of grass starting to show...

even the city big snow piles will take a while to melt..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

even the city big snow piles will take a while to melt..

The piles here will be around a long time.  There are massive piles in the parking lots.   Even the December piles had not fully melted before the big Feb snows....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was widespread record February warmth in parts of Europe in recent days.

Yeah, new all-time winter high temperatures and temperature swings.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/unseasonable-european-warmth-smashes-all-time-february-1846357348

Germany has seen its its biggest temperature swing since records began - with an increase of 41.9 degrees in one week.

Climate researchers at the German Weather Service (DWD) on Tuesday said the country had never before experienced a swing like the one that occurred at the weather station in the central German city of Goettingen.

A low of minus 23.8 degrees Celsius was recorded there on February 14. Seven days later, on February 21, the high was 18.1 degrees Celsius,

The previous record had been set in May 1880, in the early days of weather record-keeping. At that time, a temperature rise of 41 degrees had been measured within seven days, said a DWD spokesperson.

In northern Germany, two regional winter heat records had also been broken on Monday. In the town of Quickborn, the high was 18.9 degrees Celsius, passing the record of 17.8 degrees measured two years earlier.

In the Hamburg area, the Neuwiedenthal weather station hit 21.1 degrees on Monday. The previous record of 18.1 degrees at the same station just more than a year earlier was thus "pulverized," a DWD spokesperson said.

"For the first time since temperature records began, the temperature in Hamburg has thus risen above 20 degrees in winter," he said.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The record AO rise makes more headlines.

 

These extremes will continue to increase.

We could go from record warmth to cold and back in a couple days as the atmosphere gets more and more unstable. 

We could see more winters like 2015/16 with insane warmth followed by a record snowstorm.

In addition I'm sure the warming east coast waters will increase the tropical threats with stronger storms and closer storm tracks. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

These extremes will continue to increase.

We could go from record warmth to cold and back in a couple days as the atmosphere gets more and more unstable. 

We could see more winters like 2015/16 with insane warmth followed by a record snowstorm.

In addition I'm sure the warming east coast waters will increase the tropical threats with stronger storms and closer storm tracks. 

This has definitely had an effect on our falls-we've had some crazy warmth in Sept and Oct

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

even the city big snow piles will take a while to melt..

Right but "snow melt " in general doesn't include massive snow piles, those are artifically created and 10+ feet in some cases. It's understood those will be around long after the grass is bare.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing how quick a foot of snow has melted in 3 days-partial cover here, but lots of grass starting to show...

Feb 2006 18" melted in like 2 days.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Feb 2006 18" melted in like 2 days.  

There was very little water in that snow which melts it easier in the sun. There’s a ton of water in this snow/cement which makes it take longer but the higher and higher sun in late Feb gets it done. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday was probably the last day I could say there was a snowpack here. Now its piles and lawns that are in the shade. The Mesonet images give a good idea of true snowcover. 

Wantagh on the South Shore:

1135973427_Screenshotwantagh.png.926ee1666d5c40b22693b72e9e428266.png

 

Stonybrook on the North Shore:

582852833_Screenshotstonybrook.png.82319bfeff1824afc245de39c975ff0c.png 

 

Suffern- still deep winter!

1589045057_Screenshotsuffren.png.e4c8d767acdedba005b00ba6e8fc5593.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Not bad for an average temperature above freezing.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
AVG Temperature
2021 24 33.2
2020 0 40.2
2019 2 36.2
2018 1 42.0
2017 6 41.6
2016 2 37.7
2015 28 23.9
2014 28 31.6

a little ot but I had a problem with NYC's snow depth for 2014 and 2015...it seems like they take snow depth in the shade...I'm using Newark from now on for snow depth...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

a little ot but I had a problem with NYC's snow depth for 2014 and 2015...it seems like they take snow depth in the shade...I'm using Newark from now on for snow depth...

This month was pretty even around the area. More variance between NYC and other stations in 2014. But 2015 was close among the stations. Not sure why so much NYC  the snow cover data is missing between 1996 and 2000 on the XMACIS2 site.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 24 3

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 24 3


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This month was pretty even around the area.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 24 3

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 24 3


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 
Missing Count
2021 23 3

the coldest 30 days was from 1/23 to 2/21 averaging 30.45 in NYC...normal or average is around 28.0...over the last 30 years 2003-04 had the coldest 30 days averaging 22.5 and 2019-20 had the highest average of 38.0...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Yesterday was probably the last day I could say there was a snowpack here. Now its piles and lawns that are in the shade. The Mesonet images give a good idea of true snowcover. 

Wantagh on the South Shore:

1135973427_Screenshotwantagh.png.926ee1666d5c40b22693b72e9e428266.png

 

Stonybrook on the North Shore:

582852833_Screenshotstonybrook.png.82319bfeff1824afc245de39c975ff0c.png 

 

Suffern- still deep winter!

1589045057_Screenshotsuffren.png.e4c8d767acdedba005b00ba6e8fc5593.png

My backyard and shaded places still have full coverage. Places that get a lot of sun are getting bare in spots but others are still fully covered. The cement snow layer from 2/1 is holding on as best it can. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the coldest 30 days was from 1/23 to 2/21 averaging 30.45 in NYC...normal or average is around 28.0...over the last 30 years 2003-04 had the coldest 30 days averaging 22.5 and 2019-20 had the highest average of 38.0...

The cool high temperatures drove the departures this month across the region. So a continuation of the warmer minimums theme. Narrow 54/17 temperature range this month in NYC.

POU...max...-4.3....min...+0.9

HPN...max...-3.0....min...+0.9

NYC...max....-3.3....min....-0.3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both February 2014 and February 2015 had snow cover of 1” or more on every day.

Those were great winters 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A weak system will bring light precipitation to the region late tonight into tomorrow. There could be some snow with a minor accumulation north and west of New York City. It will also turn milder during tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas into the first week of March. Some of the guidance has moved toward a cooler opening to March largely on account of a short but sharp cold shot late in the first week of the month. Afterward, the ensembles are in good agreement that there will be a warming trend.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

During the 1991-2020 base period, the March 1-10 temperature has averaged 39.7° in New York City and 40.9° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 10% of days for both cities. During cases when the AO was +1.000 or above and the PNA was negative, the state of the SOI often made the difference between a colder/snowier or warmer/less snowy outcome. When the SOI was negative, the mean temperature in New York City was 39.5° and it was 39.6° in Philadelphia. Measurable snow fell on 20% of days in New York City and 17% of days in Philadelphia (well above the climatological frequency). When the SOI was positive, the mean temperature in New York City was 41.6° and it was 42.3° in Philadelphia. In such cases, measurable snow was observed on 13% of days in both cities. In sum, if this data holds up, even as a milder regime settles in, there could be some chance of a measurable snow event during the first 10 days of March in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Interior sections would likely be favored for measurable snow, as would central and upstate New York and New England.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was -9.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.980 today. That is the highest AO value since November 21, 2020 when the AO was +3.081.

On February 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.184 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.117.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of March.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.8° (1.5° below normal).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/25/2021 at 1:23 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, the strong blocking pattern this winter was the dominant factor for us. But you can see how the unfavorable MJO phases pretty much ran the table during the 18-19 and 19-20 winters.The pattern was more split between the unfavorable MJO and blocking during 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters. 

 

Do you have any ideas how this summer and next winter might go?  I saw SnowGoose's thinking that next winter may start out with good blocking but it would probably go away as the winter went on.  Which got me thinking about 2009-10, the Summer of 2010, and 2010-11.  We're in the 11 year peak summer cycle, so could this be another 2010 like historic heat summer?  And the early blocking pattern would fit 2010-11 to a tee.  I realize that the enso progression doesn't fit, but what about the possible blocking pattern?

You did say that blocking winters usually go in pairs or trios.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It took an AO drop under -5 to get only the 4th colder winter month since December 2015.


NYC

Dec 15....+13.3

Jan 16....+1.9

Feb 16....+2.4

Dec 16....+0.8

Jan 17....+5.4

Feb 17....+6.3

Dec 17....-2.5

Jan 18.....-0.8

Feb 18....+6.7

Dec 18....+2.6

Jan 19....-0.1

Feb 19....+0.9

Dec 19....+0.8

Jan 20....+6.5

Feb 20....+4.8

Dec 20.....+1.7

Jan 21.....+2.2

Feb 21.....-1.6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 2 days of February are averaging 40degs.(36/44), or +2.0.

Month to date is  33.4[-1.6].        February will end at 33.9[-1.4].

Hear all your favorite hits from the 50's and early 60's starting March 08 on WGFS!

If you are a sentient centarian who remembers the hits of the 20's and 30's, the station plans a possible format change about March 17.  

42%(83%RH), Rain.   Was 40* at midnight.   43* at 7am.      44* at 8am.     45* at 9am.    46* at 11am, FOG<0.2mi.      48* at Noon.     50* at 1pm.    FOG continues.       51* at 2pm, Fog lifted.        M. Sunny  PM, 53* by 4pm.       49* by 6pm.        44*  by 9pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. It will turn milder. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 54°

After a partly cloudy night, clouds will increase and another bout of rain will arrive tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.