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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some of these runs looked better for the 5th, Still time to get that one further under but hard not to look ahead at that one on the 8th ha ha.

It's been trending colder, so even if we could grab a couple sloppy inches out of it. At the very least, it looks like we can put the cutter idea to rest.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's been trending colder, so even if we could grab a couple sloppy inches out of it. At the very least, it looks like we can put the cutter idea to rest.

We could score a few here on friday, The cutter threat has really waned over the past few days, Far cry from a stem winder thru MI as it was showing 5 or so days back.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not on the Euro...cold rain until maybe N Litchfield county to N ORH county.

I mean as is ... - also, quite necessary that we fail to keep Kevin's pendulum any hope of equitably in check lol   but, I don't think that type of thing will A   happen ... but B, if it does?  that proooobably has to squeeze a triple point ... The initial cold does have some modest +PP up N helping so I bet that gets feedback on BL resistance just enough..

But man, that may be the nearing the upper envelope of what the Terran atmosphere can physically force.  Those are 150+ kt circumvallate winds around the SPV subsuming trough ... frankly, I have never heard of anything like that succeed - I haven't.

Subsume physics are delicate wave harmonics - that's like a poor schmuck choral conductor attempting to reign an angry throng of trumpeting pachyderms into song

 

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Will hold off on a thread pending the overnight trends - we'll be flirting with D5 tomorrow and this present ordeal in the foreground has a long way to go and needs attention.

In the meantime, subtle GEFs ens mean and spread trended toward the EPS on this 18z  

This whole thing is whack unusual...

Firstly, I have never seen a successful two stream/subsume scenario at a velocity saturation as huge as that end of the week period.  Timing is critical or bi-pass and shearing results, and the easiest way to bust open that delicate harmonic is to intruduce speed to the flow and rob away from the S/W involved.  The Euro compensates for this by having 175 kt 500 mb S/W mechanical wind max!!!  ZOMB ... So the surrounding field can balance at 100 ... 110 kts, and there still PVA because of the wind differential just moved up the scale - but c'mon.. This isn't Jupiter..  The end result is that the entire planetary torque budget gets exhausted over Concord NH  LOL..  hyperbolic, but that model started it - jerk...

I suspect what we may be heading for in reality is an progressive ...albeit mechanically endowed and potent open wave. This could be ANA or NJ Model low/ quick cyclogen ... Sort of 1987 Novemeber as weak analog - 

The 12z Euro particulars are interesting in that the whole event is pretty lengthy ...around 18 to 22 hours ... but, only by virtue of the fact that it is ginormous in scope and scale. As a cyclone when in the formulative stages at 144 hours, it's total circumvallate, which includes primary in Ohio, and a secondary near Cape Hat. ... encompasses almost the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS pan-dimension... My gosh, and you are looking at that, and you know that can only go to one destiny:  an atmospheric super massive black hole ...Sure enough, what is that 168  ... -5 SD up in N NH?   But because it is so large, it's going to take that long to bore its way into eastern Canada from SE Coast...  I also noticed at Pivotal .. that solution never turns to rain NW of the Canal - it's like one of those mid Canadian deals where the warm sector smells like rain but is wet snow showers... Pure N/stream .. just using the S/stream red-headed step child

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