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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

The big thing though is that this is trending on all guidance, even ops. Perhaps once we get into 3k or 12k NAM range that the WAA trends in our favor, but as of now we're probably losing that part of the storm. At the same time, it's GFS/GEFS vs everything else for giving us a decent WWA level event on the backend of the storm, but I guess we gotta hope for that. 

I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted.   It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand.  

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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm not sure I'd give weight to ensemble thermals at this point.  

I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted.   It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand.  

Well crafted

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet.

Don’t our odds of temps crashing on the back and turning all to snow increase if the system is stronger?

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t our odds of temps crashing on the back and turning all to snow increase if the system is stronger?

The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. 
 

We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. 
 

We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. 
 

We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours.

I agree . Small adjustments needed only. Still 4 days out . 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

Well on the bright side least people can hear your shitty ass guitar gig :whistle:

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south

Are any of your feelings about things ever good, though? Lol

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35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted.   It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand.  

I’m used to getting hosed on the front end and shafted on the backend. Spit roasted in some ways. It’s just sloppy all around

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32 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’m used to getting hosed on the front end and shafted on the backend. Spit roasted in some ways. It’s just sloppy all around

@ravensrule?? :lol:

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I guess I'm going to be "that guy"  to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol.

Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. 

That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. 

Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol

gfs_T850_us_16.png

namconus_T850_us_53.png

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, I thought you were slacking for a while.  Good to see the NAM extrapolation.  It's comforting.  

We need more like it.

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31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I guess I'm going to be "that guy"  to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol.

Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. 

That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. 

Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol

gfs_T850_us_16.png

namconus_T850_us_53.png

No I posted the 18z NAM in comparison to the GFS showing that same thing...and 0z NAM went even further in that direction 0z.  We all know its the NAM at 84 hours.  But the typical bias for the NAM at range is over amped not under.  The NAM also might be better suited to handle the thermal profile which might impact the ridging in front...this is not a particularly amplified system that will automatically bully the flow.  Once in a while the NAM sniffs something out.  Lets just hope this is one of those "once in a while".  We all know the risks of believing anything the NAM has to say at range though so its fine to point out the NAM would probably be a good outcome.  It's ok to dream!!!

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Fair

I guess verbatim it might end up similar to previous runs. some "ice" and then it wouldn't shock me if it pulls off snow at the end.

least this storm is speeding up slightly every run. the pain will be over soon.

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Debacle.

Almost to the point where I'm ready to transfer all of my eggs into the Jan 28th basket.   Gonna leave 1 or 2 in this basket just in case the NAM has something.  lol, relying on the NAM.

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