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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Just now, H2O said:

the bone dry expert 6z Euro just said HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Euro is a trash model

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Did it?

12 hours from the "event" and we still have no clue what to expect. The past 10 comments really enforce that. Dry, wet, better, worse lol

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All models that don’t show what I want are trash

Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about..   Snow to freezing rain to rain,   we've had this pattern a quadrillion times.

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1 minute ago, winterymix said:

Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about..   Snow to freezing rain to rain,   we've had this pattern a quadrillion times.

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question.

For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question.

For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.

That’s why I’m encouraged by the models that are bumping up precip as it gets closer 

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14 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about..   Snow to freezing rain to rain,   we've had this pattern a quadrillion times.

Which can be great if you get that juiced up precip as it moves in.

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HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch.

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch.

      exactly.    Here is the HRRR QPF during the time when it shows mostly snow for areas north of DC:

19280155_ScreenShot2021-01-25at8_47_31AM.thumb.png.c8954f7d07bd465e3e962902eafef5c7.png

     And the vertical profiles show that temps are just barely cold enough aloft to stay as snow until you get further north in MD.    Ugly tradeoff here:   You need to go southwest to get higher QPF, but the better profiles will be further north.    There *may* be a sweet spot somewhere in the middle (Howard-Montgomery deathband, anyone?) where they get into the slightly higher QPF and have a profile that just barely supports snow

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

still out of range

what is the purpose of the model? It showing snow 10 hours away and its discounted

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I have no clue....I want it to be right is all I know

 

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I have no clue....I want it to be right is all I know

make sure you discount the elite NAM 3k too

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

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Perfect scenario on the nams.  Heavy precip, wet bulb down to freezing, just cold enough upstairs. After sunset start.

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Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this.    Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand.

Of course we have a lot of people who just “know”

Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand.

Of course we have a lot of people who just “know”

i dont think high risk is discounting a 1-3 inch event. But to get 4-5 inches...you are going to need some white out conditions lol

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

      To be clear, I'm saying to discount the heaver NAM12 QPF, and always discount the 10:1 maps in an event with marginal temperature profiles.    But I would absolutely not discount the NAM nest, for which the reasonable snow products have 1-2" for areas north of DC (and maybe some snow inside the DC Beltway too for a little while).    Look at the other CAMs rolling in this morning:   the HRRR and all 3 hi-res windows have snow for a few hours at the start.     The NAM idea is not an outlier.  

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