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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

0z GEFS range from a suppressed non-event, to a congrats OMA-LSE.

Probably the best they’ve looked yet.


.

Too much dancing

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Centuries ago, plus anyone could have fallen down and produced 3 snowstorms that winter

 

 That Winter a practically clear sky could produce a snowstorm.

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The UK doesn't look any better than the GFS/GDPS.  It also still digs the Canadian trough across the border and picks up some of the western energy, which leads to the remaining western energy ejecting out suppressed.

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The UK doesn't look any better than the GFS/GDPS.  It also still digs the Canadian trough across the border and picks up some of the western energy, which leads to the remaining western energy ejecting out suppressed.
UKMET was still a slight improvement. Cold sector precip gets squashed by the confluence but a 995 mb low riding the Ohio River on Monday-Monday night. If all you had was the surface map for your forecast, that surface low track would usually portend solid snow at least up to I-80. As is, UKMET indicates a moderate event from central IN northeast across northern half of OH.

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Watching this one from afar in Colorado. Definitely a significant jump in the GEFS mean compared to last several runs on the MSLP/6hr precip plots.  

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26 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

May as well have a Flameuary before our Morch.

Followed by Napril and May’nt. 

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Initial thought is the Euro will take a step back this run.  The Canadian trough doesn't dig any more than last run, but the front piece of the western energy still gets pulled northeast, unlike this morning's run.

Update:  Or not.

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Initial thought is the Euro will take a step back this run.  The Canadian trough doesn't dig any more than last run, but the front piece of the western energy still gets pulled northeast, unlike this morning's run.

At least there's a storm there still lol 

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The Euro actually lifts the warm air aloft farther north this run, brings mix up to I-80 in Iowa.

Whoa, this run is at least as good.  The key seems to be the farther north Canadian trough, which gets out of the way and allows the sw energy to lift up into our region.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro actually lifts the warm air aloft farther north this run, brings mix up to I-80 in Iowa.

Whoa, this run is at least as good.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Freezing line a bit further north, but going to be another solid/big run 

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro actually lifts the warm air aloft farther north this run, brings mix up to I-80 in Iowa.

Whoa, this run is at least as good.  The key seems to be the farther north Canadian trough, which gets out of the way and allows the sw energy to lift up into our region.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Hopefully we can get another 1"+ sleet storm to add another layer of glacier to the existing glacier lol.

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Will have to refine the details on location but this could be a pretty decent ice setup somewhere.  The high to the north/flattish isobar look and struggle to gain much latitude could mean that particular precip type locks in for a prolonged period of time in a W-E corridor.

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00z EPS mean and individual members. The mean is pretty much a carbon copy of the 18z run. Looking at member low locations, if anything a slight north lean. Still some clunker members but a majority favoring heaviest snow swath from I-80 and north to WI. Didn't see a jump toward the suppressed solutions. Good to see multi-run consistency from the EPS in favoring a significant event. 38f752c5dde66438eb7ce41acbb0ef51.jpg810f3337d7f61b825658a7f38f088f45.jpg656e3cc4b22625fc42d64f61caef81df.jpg05cc838ccdf0f68f51322971eab75f46.jpg6127d29d848c20b313752f0a549ac298.jpg

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56 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro feels like it's a run or two away from eurythmics time, gonna ride the gfs to calm my nerves

 

 

LOT has some early AM advice for you:"KEEP IN MIND IT'S NEVER A BAD TIME TO MAKE SURE YOUR   
WINTER KIT AT HOME OR IN YOUR CAR IS STOCKED AND READY TO GO."

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And don't forget to stock them wagons.

Looks like another solid 33˚ rainer here. Congrats to the usual folk this winter. 

 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I’m here for this one folks....get on my back...it’s coming!

Welcome! Hopefully we can get you something worthwhile

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6z Euro only goes to 90hrs, but would end up similar to 0z.


.

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