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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

 

One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

no way is 46 correct but yeah, it's warm for the time of year

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14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

12z EPS now centered from QCA to Chicago metro roughly. Lots of good hits on the members, would like to get rid of the remaining duds. I'm busy getting the forecast out so don't have time to post images today.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

You say that almost as if you have a real job in weather or something and don't just do this as a hobby :p

 

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One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake.  Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role.  Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.

MSU remote sensing suggests 42 is the mid-lake max. Probably more reasonable.


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14 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Just for a point of reference.

I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out.  Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and   lure unwitting energy traders/clients.

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out.  Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and   lure unwitting energy traders/clients.

They've been quackier than a duck farm for ages.

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12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby. 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby. 

you're sitting pretty

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