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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags.

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until 00Z

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

<looks at pitchfork in one hand, torch in the other>

:poster_oops:

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49 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see.

1037415167_ScreenShot2021-01-22at11_36_57AM.png.385aaf9774a40f3c212947a6365ac070.png

I would take this and move it north. Too much biting of one run shifting south on a few models while others staying consistent or still moving north.

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Honestly if I were you guys in chicago I'd be quite happy rn. The models are quite obviously underdoing QPF and with most of them still having the band basically over the city I wouldn't be surprised if you guys eke out some surprising amounts as things stand right now.

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Lake Michigan is still mild enough that it's actually causing temps to be near freezing for a while near the western shore.

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.6c18365ddf988dd949c96f0c331c61a4.png

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20 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Also fwiw, the GEM ensembles are roughly in line with 00z

Which means the op is on the southern end of that envelope.

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14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

snku_acc.us_mw.png'

Only possible positive I can pull for up here is the orientation of snow band on the weenie maps appears more of a curve to the NE instead of east west.  Shrugs and probably not. the case.  I can run with that until 0z euro shows Scooters Shit Streak still on the map.

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This storm has some similarities to the GHD storm

2015? Sure.

2011? Not a chance in hell.

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37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. 

Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12".  Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

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Whoa! Just tried to get caught up here and thought I'd accidentally clicked on one of the EC subforums. My only observations for the FWA area is to prepare for a kitchen sink storm. Now back to your regular scheduled model watching.

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RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. 
Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12".  Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

There are numerous ENS (both GFS and Euro) that have 10-20”, with a few over 20”.


.
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10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. 

Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12".  Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.

With the gulf wide open, I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread double digits somewhere in LOT. 

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Just now, mimillman said:

No clue

Went and looked at the top 10. 7" and greater were considered winners, less than that losers. A few storms had essentially no data.

1: No data

2: A band of heavy snow fell across portions of northeast Illinois during the evening of the 9th and ended the morning of the 10th. The heaviest amounts fell over northeast Livingston county, western Kankakee county, eastern Will county and extreme southern Cook county. Some snowfall amounts include: Dwight - 6 inches in Livingston county, Kankakee - 5 inches in Kankakee county, Monee Reservoir - 5.5 inches in Will county. and Olympia Fields - 6.1 inches in Cook county.

3: From early morning on February 18th until evening, 5 to 12 inches of snow fell across portions of northern Illinois. Co-op and airport reports indicate that the heaviest snow (12 inches) fell from around Dixon and Rochelle, northeast through the northern suburbs of Chicago. Slightly north of this band, around the Rockford area, totals were in the 8 to 10 inch range. To the south, amounts tapered from 11 inches at O'Hare to 7 inches near Midway and 3 to 4 inches across southern Will county. Winds gusted above 30 mph caused some blowing and drifting of the snow. Some official snowfall reports include: 11.1 inches at O'Hare International Airport, 6.7 inches at Midway Airport, 9.6 inches at Rockford, 12.2 inches in Lake Villa, 12.0 inches in Compton, 10.0 inches in Barrington, 7.0 inches in Aurora, and 5.0 inches at the Weather Service Office in Romeoville. Numerous accidents due to slick road conditions and poor visibility were reported throughout northern Illinois. Air travel was hampered as well, with an estimated 600 flights cancelled at O'Hare International Airport. 

4: We know it and love it

5. Looks like an east coast storm

6: A low pressure system passed to the south of Iowa during the day on the 5th. The north edge of the precipitation stretched into the state in the form of the northern edge of the deformation zone. Rain fell initially, however the system became convective. The combination of the convection and the entrainment of dry air into the state led to a fairly quick changed to snow. A narrow band of heavy snow set up across Appanoose, northwest Davis, and Wapello Counties. At the heaviest point, snow fall at the rate of 3 inches per hour. In a band extending from near Centerville to Ottumwa, 6 to 7 inches of snow fall in a three to four hour period. The official snowfall total at the Ottumwa Airport was 7 inches. This was the highest official total, though a few locations picked up a bit more unofficially.

7: Looks like 3-6" for IWX to interior NE.

8: A strong winter storm moved from northeast Texas to southern Indiana to Lake Erie February 21-22, 2010. This system produced light to moderate snow across the region mainly along and south of Highway 30. The highest amounts of 6 to 8 inches were reported in extreme southeast Iowa, extreme northeast Missouri and western Illinois. Elsewhere, 2 to 5 inches of snow fell between Highway 34 and Highway 30, with lesser amounts to the north. The highest amount was near Macomb, Illinois with 8.5 inches, while Memphis, Missouri had 8.0 inches of snow.

9: Low pressure tracked from eastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas and then into the Ohio Valley on February 24-25, 2011. This storm system spread snow, briefly heavy, across portions of southeast Iowa, western Illinois and extreme northeast Missouri. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches were common in those areas. The highest amount reported was 5.0 inches near Cantril, Iowa in Van Buren county. A trained spotter reported 3.0 inches of snow at Adair.

10: A strong winter storm moved northeast across southern Illinois and northwest Indiana during the evening hours of December 15th and the morning hours of December 16th. This storm produced heavy snow across eastern Illinois with many areas receiving over ten inches of snow. Much of Kankakee County received over 8 inches of snow. Bourbonnais measured 11.1 inches and Herscher measured 10.8 inches.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

With the gulf wide open, I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread double digits somewhere in LOT. 

Agree. Still think the 12z suite is underdone on QPF

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z EPS Mean...
1e72ee11aa8f38a58450c50f65a4a9e0.jpg


.

Tick south but solid nonetheless. This is about all I can hope for I think, which is a huge win in this season.

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Here's the game plan: by 12z tomorrow ish, the models will begin really nailing in the track, which is going to be slightly northwest of what the lastest Euro showed. After that, we can start bumping up the qpf every run, until the desired amount is achieved.

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I haven't seen a double-digit snowfall since I lived in Central Illinois in March 2013. If I can just get to 10 with this storm I'll be happy camper. Looks like it's going to be a close call at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z EPS Mean...



.

Good to know that some individual members are 10"+.  But we really need to get rid of the clunker ensemble outcomes...needs to happen ASAP.  Because there are so many non-event ensemble members, the mean only shows a 3-5" snowfall over much of the metro for the main show...as there's 1-2" included from the WAA snow on Sunday morning). 

Ugh...  

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