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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

This hand is being over played  imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16.  That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy.  If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath. 

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35 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts.  So what's the current state?  In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west.  Is that not happening now?

And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). 

ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

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47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

December was just plain average here in most of NC.  But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall.

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And I’m not sure what this is in reference too but I’ve seen his tweets shared on my Twitter feed comparing the pattern to 2010 several times and I think I remember a comment where he said he would be shocked if DC to Boston wasnt above normal snow by Mid Feb do not sure how not bullish that is lol. 

JB is as much a weather weenie as anybody on this site.  There's the official WB winter forecast, but inevitably JB starts getting wrapped up in the possibilities of some big storm potential if this high does that and that low does this and...eventually it all boils to the MJO for him.  He sort of forgets about the WB official forecast.  Eventually the JMA or Euro will destroy his dreams (sound familiar?) and he'll capitulate to warmth in a blathering video (expect Rocky references).  If he does this early enough in the winter then we can expect snow following the capitulation.  If he waits too long to capitulate then hope is lost. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This hand is being over played  imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16.  That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy.  If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath. 

Thanks for the clarification. I gave into their doom and gloom once I saw the GEFS trend towards bring the EPO positive wayyy sooner, but it also makes sense given that now we actually have some cold on our side of the Northern Hemisphere. Should give us a few shots even if the PAC goes to crap in early Feb

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts.  So what's the current state?  In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west.  Is that not happening now?

And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). 

ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

I don’t want to start a war with anyone without knowing the whole story, especially over something this petty...but here is my take...

Using 12z EPS but GEFS isn’t much different Day 1

19CEAF7E-61EB-4CC0-8098-38B69CF499F1.thumb.jpeg.c4af4dcc9020af7fe2b0b044b161b8a7.jpeg

looks like an epo ridge with effective flow into our source regions to me...

Day 5

87FE9562-4D53-4735-8605-C69AE935EF05.thumb.jpeg.4d836d220a409d731e21c24178e9d124.jpeg

no complaints there...

day 8!!!!

9AFCD3B4-4475-4817-BF1E-53E7514D91A7.thumb.jpeg.6b624b5b383b99c91528fd87d0783f77.jpeg

still there...keep in mind signals get muted that far out in range.  

After that the pacific ridge retrogrades and that Pac NW trough retrogrades with it into the EPO domain flipping it around day 9/10.  A few days ago when it was still way out at like day 14-16 guidance hinted the epo ridge might linger a few days longer but saying because it lasted 7-8 days instead of 10-11 based on a day 15 prog seems overly petty to me.
 

It also seems inconsequential to the threat window days 8-15 that I’m looking at.  Because look what that sets up day 12

EA847E5D-DD94-4ABD-9D43-DE3C8B16986F.thumb.jpeg.efe2f91d8ffddf50eb22bdb43a40b1a9.jpeg

yes the epo flips...but AFTER a solid week of flow straight out of the Arctic into our source regions.  I’m sorry but that’s not good enough?  But also that’s not a bad look there.  That isn’t a vortex of doom in the N pac just a typical trough.  And we have a block still in eastern Canada and a 50/50 low trapped to our northeast so our flow will be out of the north. That area had a solid week of cross polar flow to seed cold.  And look where that’s being fed with there.   Yes the flow traverses the extreme north Pac after coming off Siberia and through the Bering Sea.  Not exactly tropical in origin.  And the true mid latitude maritime pac air is directed into the southwest and is cut off by the northwest flow across the US.  That’s a good look to get something to amplify into the east and it should be plenty cold enough given the antecedent setup. Now ideally I’d like that ridge to pull back a little more. It’s tight. With a block like that though sometimes something could dig in pretty sharp. But my fear there would be something miller bs us because it amplifies too far northeast. But that has nothing to do with the EPO.  And before we worry about that it’s 12 days away..I promise the ridge axis will shift slightly. If it adjusts west just a bit we’re golden. So let’s see. 
 

But back to the EPO issue yes the northern stream would pick up some maritime influence from its brief traverse over the gulf of AK but if that is enough to totally wreck our source region immediately after seeding it with arctic air for 7 straight days...and I am not exxagersting here...we should close up shop and pack it in.  Seriously what do we need a 30 day straight off Siberia flow?  Or a solar storm that infuses stratospheric air straight to the ground like day after tomorrow???  What are we looking for here???

Now if we’re looking way way out...if the NAO flips positive and that trough stays near AK then yea we will be in trouble.  But now we’re looking way out and adding some ifs and buts.  Maybe they are doing that. I don’t know. But imo if the next 2 weeks fail it’s not because the epo broke down in 7 days instead of 10. 

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  0z Model roulette.  Good luck folks

Icon did not get us off to a glorious start. It says “what block?  Why don’t I just blast a ridge from Mexico to Greenland instead.”  
8DC0EA92-A6D8-4D76-A634-07EC8B3467DA.thumb.png.d914029f05ad1ca652bc8b2ec1503377.png

Before anyone bothers to look...It’s raining in Green Bay there. 

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And gfs looks exactly like it...

72CD6011-F680-4AF3-BEDF-F7273FD84B60.thumb.png.fe56baf331142d0c642ce8ba0386d1c9.png

For reference this is what the euro looks like at about the same time...

FD0E6ACC-E2CB-4855-94CE-DEC8BD2FC237.thumb.png.1f139bb1311774bdea3dc1bd14a7cb7d.png

It’s a huge difference but really due to a rather subtle difference that has huge impacts on the pattern.  The euro ejects the western trough in pieces and such never pumps the ridge.  The gfs and Icon does not and pumps the ridge.  Looking across ensemble members that’s a consistent theme between good v bad members on both gefs and eps.  We need the western trough to eject pieces east to knock down the ridge.  Otherwise it pumps a ridge that links up with the NAO “block” and its game over  

 

 

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

A little similar to some of the 1994 ice storms wrt pattern there. But I’m not getting into that. I don’t like ice. Could care less ice v rain unless there is snowcover to preserve. 

i hate sleet but i like a good freezing rain storm. Temps have to be in the mid 20's or lower though

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GFS pumps the ridge so far north the first wave cuts so severely it might destroy the setup for the next behind it. It gets trapped so far NW we get no 50/50 and enough ridging for the next wave to possibly cut also. Lol. 

para destroys us

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC caved to the GFS.

Honestly from a pattern progression the cmc was always in the gfs camp. The op pumped the ridge same way but less extreme buy it also washed out that first wave. No one pointed out the snowstorm the cmc showed was actually from the NEXT wave and was a days later lol. And for that progression to work required the first lead wave to wash out and it was the only model showing that lol.  But the cmc ensembles were fully in the gfs camp without that wonky split wave idea. I didn’t want to kill the mood by pointing that out though. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Honestly from a pattern progression the cmc was always in the gfs camp. The op pumped the ridge same way but less extreme buy it also washed out that first wave. No one pointed out the snowstorm the cmc showed was actually from the NEXT wave and was a days later lol. And for that progression to work required the first lead wave to wash out and it was the only model showing that lol.  But the cmc ensembles were fully in the gfs camp without that wonky split wave idea. I didn’t want to kill the mood by pointing that out though. 

i think the para washes out the first wav and gets our blue a day later. I am not a fan of pivitols maps and para dosent have the 500mb vort map smh loaded

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