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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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To me the ull is Canada is more fixable and less easily modeled than a pos shortwave crossing the desert sw

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It’s not really south. The upper low takes the exact same track it’s just weaker. 
Weaker cause of ull pressing south a bit more?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s not really south. The upper low takes the exact same track it’s just weaker. 

At least it’s not pile driving it up into WV and undercutting even me to my south. That is something we should all want to see however other players naturally have to cooperate on the battlefield.

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Still rain at 120...I know the gfs thermals are not usually good but...seriously 

CE7E9269-7343-4294-B981-51A9AEDEF749.png

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Out of curiousity, is one of the reasons the Euro is so different that it also has the ULL in canada further south?

No from what I saw it was north like the last few gfs runs. It simply had a more suppressive flow in the west Atlantic and it ejected a weaker wave and dampened the wave more as it came east vs the gfs which amplified it. This gfs run might turn out ok but I don’t like seeing the wave trend toward a weaker solution like the euro. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

Still rain at 120...I know the gfs thermals are not usually good but...seriously 

Lol.  993 south of VA beach, 540 thickness over the NN, and GFS has rain over DC.  

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Just now, nj2va said:

Lol.  993 south of VA beach, 540 thickness over the NN, and GFS has rain over DC.  

This...would be something

880E1B54-D704-4D8F-9171-34F4E6B6216E.png

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If this:

gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png

 

And this:

gfs_T850_us_22.png

 

 

Produce rain in the deformation band of a coastal low on January 28th???  Something is seriously, seriously wrong.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

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@clskinsfan 81 demolishing at least for what we’ve grown accustomed to. This thing will change more than I change my underwear so fun to at least see the potential

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If storm takes that track with that setup, everybody on this board would score nicely......id take my chances.....

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Still rain at 120...I know the gfs thermals are not usually good but...seriously 

CE7E9269-7343-4294-B981-51A9AEDEF749.png

Double bind... unfortunately there just isn’t enough cold to make any storm “easy”. The amount of suppression we need to stop warmth from surging north also is very close to be too much to allow anything to amplify. Do there is a very very very narrow margin we’re playing in and to get a big snow we will have to play with fire either way. There isn’t enough cold to get some huge shield of cold smoke to the north of a storm. Everything at our latitude and south is going to have to be dynamically driven. 

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that hole over my house is pretty funny. I think God is really punishing me. I might be the Jonah of this board

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