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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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NC mets giving legit sounding reasons this thing will still go south while our group is giving legit sounding reasons this will still go a little north maybe meanwhile South Carolina mets are saying what happened to my historic snowstorm. Buckle up kiddies we are about to get on the rollercoaster of joy and despair. My guess a few of you won't make it....my condolences to your pets.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yea, 6z GFS doubling down.  I Thought 0z was a fluke...I dunno now

I think it’s a fluke. I think the Canadiis a good meet in the middle outcome for now.

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24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yes euro didn’t spit out a foot of snow but I don’t think it was as bad as the reaction. It just needed to be a bit more amped and the solution would have been better. That’s not a huge adjustment to make in the MR. 

It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it’s a fluke. I think the Canadiis a good meet in the middle outcome for now.

Yup.  Sensible would be CMC until we get another major model that winds this up like the GFS

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If anything, the GEFS 6z is a decent improvement bs 0z wrt strength, track, and clustering of individual slp. Talk about doubling down. Lost most southern and Eastern outliers from 0z. Basically just played bully and told the euro to get a fricken clue.

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. 

Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low.

There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution.

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1 minute ago, heavy_wx said:

Yes, the GFS keeps the 500-mb shortwave mostly coherent as it propagates from AZ on 12z Tuesday to the OH river valley, where it acquires a negative tilt.The shortwave on the Euro loses its coherence over the southwest, keeping some of the energy delayed as the feature moves eastward. The result is a flatter, positively tilted shortwave that produces less favorable interaction with the developing surface low.

There's definitely potential with this system for snow in the mid-Atlantic, but I think there's too much uncertainty right now in how these features will evolve to be confident in any operational model solution.

Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? 

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This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. 
 

If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions.  Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know”

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Would you consider that to be a bias of the euro with s/w ejection with systems coming out of the southwest like we’ve seen in past storms? 

Good question; I'm not sure if the differences in the shortwave evolution are caused by something inherent in the model dynamics or differences in the model initial conditions.

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At 132....one of these is going to look pretty awful.  Couldnt be further apart.

E0DBF9D7-8CD5-44B1-BE5F-1F07C69B210B.png

78650B4D-6970-4A3E-974B-9709B145B5E6.png

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Will be an epic fail for EURO....6Z EPS not showing much compared to 0Z.

B02F83B3-55B8-42AF-92D3-7F0EE4D0AAB3.png

B3719BFC-1A0F-418F-9059-776609F7597F.png

Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. 

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The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point.   I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today.  If not ill remain extremely skeptical 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. 

Agreed...Euro does not normally fail within five days.   Although the Canadian would be the compromise solution.

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Just now, ryanconway63 said:

The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point.   I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today.  If not ill remain extremely skeptical 

Not sure we can make any definitive statements on this one yet... the models have been struggling mightily in this pattern. It’s been really tough to even search for trends... every time it seems there is one, the models shift the next suite. I’d keep an open mind...

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust. 

Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This is good info to know. From our Philly board met. 
 

If the GFS went off the rails, it takes about 30 hours of runs to self correct because it uses its own 6 hr forecast to adjust initial conditions.  Hence if it is an error, it gets perpetuated in future runs until a pair of sounding runs expunge it. The Euro starts from scratch each sounding run. So by the 00z run tonight we will know”

Where is this from?  I dont see it on here... and i've never heard of that before with any model

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Did that rule work when the gfs went from a historic SC storm to a historic NC storm to a historic Lynchburg storm to a historic Norfolk storm to a historic nova storm in 3 days

Touche. Would like the know which poster on the other forum said that about the GFS.

In other news, the NAM at range looks consolidated with the sw in the SW about to move out.

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