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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning :whistle:. -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness .

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0798400.png

Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out. 

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23 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out. 

Yep Definitely a low % shot but trends are interesting to say the least . Looks like especially nw areas are in the game for a changeover of white rain or light accumulation if trends continue 

A hint of a mini coma head on that Control run next time stamp  ..that stretches towards the m/d line 

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That got “real fast” lol
No it didn't lol

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

For Westminster- 46, 49, 48 the next 3 days, then 43 on Sat. 

Hopefully we see a legit cold front sometime in the next 10 days.

Nam says 35 Friday with snow Friday  night :snowing:

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning :whistle:. -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness .

 

Does anybody know if WxBell allows access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it...

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1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said:

Does anybody know if WxBell allow access to the GEFS control like the EPS? I can't find it...

It used to be part of the Gefs ensemble package . I haven't seen it this year on the individuals though . But I haven't looked too hard 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

It used to be part of the Gefs ensemble package 

Yeah it used to be on the member panels along with all the members, but now it doesn't seem to be anywhere.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...i was mostly trolling @CAPElol

I’m looking forward to your 5 minutes of snow TV so you can rub it in CAPE’s face you were right. :sled:

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GFS has some snow showers next Monday in the region with the NS disturbance swinging through the NE.  

Mountains pick up 9”+ through MLK Day from the cold front, upslope, and the NS disturbance.  Great timing for the holiday weekend and hope its right as I’ll be back in Deep Creek on Friday. :drunk:

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Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. 

I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something.

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1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said:

I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something.

The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. 

I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. 

I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.

You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models

I agree, but we are in the short range now and even have the mesos available for this weekend. I guess it has been dry lately, so the potential for maybe a half inch of rain is...different. lol.

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Euro has been coming in snowier for Friday-Sunday for the mountains of MD/WV.  18z drops 5-9” there and even has a dusting/minor accumulation south of DC across Stafford and PWC.  

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33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well the NAM made a slight adjustment of its low position LOL 

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

NAMs both made quite a change to the Friday-Sat deal. Wondering if further changes may be in store. The block seems to really be doing a number on that low

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Really nice vort pass on the 19th but no surface reflection. If we’re looking for some dark horse long shot to pop up short range that could be the one.  Wouldn’t take much surface reflection to at least create a minor event out of that. 

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This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential.

namconus_z500_vort_us_51.png

namconus_z500a_us_53.png

Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS.

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