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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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ICON at hr 117. Compared to previous run it's rather similar, hard to compare since it actually scoots the lp in faster, but the lp seems maybe like 25-50 miles north and somewhat weaker than the 12z run. Decent WAA thump with it too

icon-all-east-mslp-2105200.thumb.png.6ec921f4c96ee75fc6997acee1d12fcd.png

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

I dont think anyone anywhere east of the NC mountains sees a flake on Thursday according to the NAM. No one. 

Has the SLP, if you can call it that, down near Jax booking east.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

18z NAM at 84H looks really similar to the 12z Euro at 90H at 500.

yeah said that too. I think the H5 look off the east coast definitely leans towards the euro compared to the GFS. 

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1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Trip booked in to D.C. Sunday afternoon 

Just a suggestion, don't yell at messenger. If work related, come back forum on Thursday/Friday, as you seem to be following along as well. Then start making decision then to cancel, once at DC with this event you maybe stuck here for a day/two possibly.

If not for work related, not worth coming to DC when everything is still pretty much either fenced up or boarded up. Plus all federal properties, double mask mandated.

 

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4 minutes ago, yohan said:

Just a suggestion, don't yell at messenger. If work related, come back forum on Thursday/Friday, as you seem to be following along as well. Then start making decision then to cancel, once at DC with this event you maybe stuck here for a day/two possibly.

If not for work related, not worth coming to DC when everything is still pretty much either fenced up or boarded up. Plus all federal properties, double mask mandated.

 

He’s said he’s staying with his bro in Manassas. If he wanted to come party why are we pooping on it.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Through 120 ICON already has us with 7 hours of snow. Primary is in KY and starting to transfer off the coast. Would love to see the next 12 hours. 

Yea that's a big thing to watch. We want the primary up into Kentucky, then die off and quickly transfer energy to the coast.

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Through 120 ICON already has us with 7 hours of snow. Primary is in KY and starting to transfer off the coast. Would love to see the next 12 hours. 

Def a good omen for you guys. I’m already at 6-8” down this way on Icon at 120!

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Just now, chris21 said:

He’s said he’s staying with his bro in Manassas. If he wanted to come party why are we pooping on it.

My apologies, he said DC, did not know that he would stay in Manassas. I was just stating that in DC, the fence's and other stuff are still up from inauguration.

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3 minutes ago, yohan said:

My apologies, he said DC, did not know that he would stay in Manassas. I was just stating that in DC, the fence's and other stuff are still up from inauguration.

No worries

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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I used to use it a lot.  This is a special occasion.  I'll allow it.

what did I miss?

 

@Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout.   Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

how do we get this to trend south

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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43 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. 

Or for this forum. 

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We need to keep our wits about us as we go into GFS HH.  Drink now...right now before it’s too late for all that is holy!

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if you aren't paywalled, this CWG article has some model outputs from 90+ hours out. there was agreement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/how-much-snow-are-local-forecasters-and-computer-models-predicting/
Copy the link and paste it into incognito mode on Android. It works without payment

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS still not as strong/SW as the Euro in the Northeast.  Slightly better tho than 12z

A little better confluence if anything @84

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Confluence looks a bit better over the Northeast on Saturday compared to 12z.

That trend continues at 96. That’s what I’m most interested in at this juncture.

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