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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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Wow, based on the latest discussion from RAH, I get the feeling they are very unimpressed. Basically Triad area may get an inch at best and areas south and east of 40/85 in their forecasting area may not see any accumulation at all, hardly even mention the back end snow. Totally different vibe than last night’s discussion when they were going with the higher QPF NAM and possibly adding counties to the Winter Storm Watch. Sounds like the morning crew are siding with the Euro solution of less moisture.


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23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

3K Nam would make a lot of people happy on here

How so? Aree models shifting snow more to the S? As in Charlotte?

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48 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Someone is going to get a lot of snow , and a lot will not... this is very tricky... especially for my area , most models have shifted south,  with a near-miss here...

South as in where? Charlotte, Lancaster? How far Soutb?

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1 hour ago, MOD said:

1/7/2021 6z HRRR Kuchera - still falling down east in NC when run ends at 48 hours

 

image.png.234ee4c7a81da920cbae37d5d6131c9e.png

Charlotte deserves this if they get it. 

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4 minutes ago, davenc said:

South as in where? Charlotte, Lancaster? How far Soutb?

I think North of 73 in the metro is always a safe bet in these situations but this isnt your typical overrunning storm. We dont know yet where these bands will setup but it seems like the banding has focused on 85 from the SC border to the VA Border. 

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31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

3K Nam would make a lot of people happy on here

Looks like I'm around half a foot on both NAMs. Now for it to just verify. 

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Charlotte deserves this if they get it. 

Soooo overdue for 6" plus snow in and around CLT!!

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3 minutes ago, davenc said:

I'm pretty sure this storm in 2004 was our last SNOWMAGEDDON!! Anyone else remember this one?

26Feb_snowmap.png

All too well..me and burrel got the snowhole shaft! Winter storm warning fail for here.

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5 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

All too well..me and burrel got the snowhole shaft! Winter storm warning fail for here.

So blending all the models gives me a wet ground with token flakes looks like.  That’s about par for the course in this area.  Hope you NC peeps get hammered..

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My home is in northern Guilford while I own acreage in eastern Stokes.  They’re a short drive apart.  The house is within the RAH forecasting area while the land is within RNK’s. It’s funny to see the differences in each office’s call maps and forecasts for the same storm.  RAH is generally more conservative.

So basically for this storm, RAH says to expect 1” of snow at my house, while RNK thinks I can drive a few minutes to the land and expect to see 4” of snow.  I’m betting on 2” at the house and 3” at the land.

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 3k and Euro are similar except the Euro cuts the moisture off to the east...

The 3k has the strongest cutoff low and it lasts the longest as well.  That’s why Charlotte and areas east get snow at all. 
 

Any changes to that cutoff will make or break snow accumulations in those areas. 

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1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

My home is in northern Guilford while I own acreage in eastern Stokes.  They’re a short drive apart.  The house is within the RAH forecasting area while the land is within RNK’s. It’s funny to see the differences in each office’s call maps and forecasts for the same storm.  RAH is generally more conservative.

So basically for this storm, RAH says to expect 1” of snow at my house, while RNK thinks I can drive a few minutes to the land and expect to see 4” of snow.  I’m betting on 2” at the house and 3” at the land.

RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.

 

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27 minutes ago, davenc said:

I'm pretty sure this storm in 2004 was our last SNOWMAGEDDON!! Anyone else remember this one?

26Feb_snowmap.png

Yes! I was in east Charlotte at the time. We had 16". You're right, this was the last "big one" for Charlotte and I'm always chasing that 2004 redux dream every winter since. 

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6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Colder now than I expected.  It’s 24 degrees here north of GSO.  I tend to stay a degree or two cooler here than downtown.  I’m hoping that pays off for this system.

I'm about a mile west of downtown GSO and I've got 28 this am. 

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Had 27 on the car in N. Durham this morning.  25 in southern person county.  Quite chilly.  Hoping my move from Stallings to Durham earlier this year proves fruitful in the snow department.  In my 7 years in stallings i think we saw a total of 5 inches of snow.

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5 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Had 27 on the car in N. Durham this morning.  25 in southern person county.  Quite chilly.  Hoping my move from Stallings to Durham earlier this year proves fruitful in the snow department.  In my 7 years in stallings i think we saw a total of 5 inches of snow.

Yea I remember years past commiserating on our lack of snow here!  You must’ve been in an even worse spot since it’d be snowing where I am and raining where you were. 
 

Good luck in Durham! 

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15 minutes ago, Joe Clark said:

I'm about a mile west of downtown GSO and I've got 28 this am. 

I lived in Hamilton Lakes for a long time until moving to the north side of the county last year.  Good luck with this system.  I’m hoping we all get enough to at least cover every blade of grass.  That way, I can pretend it’s a foot.  :thumbsup:

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50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.

 

Don't blame them for being conservative.  Marginal temps mean accumulations will be hard to come by.  Screw zone and bust potential pretty big on this one as it is with most of these ULLs.

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