BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 15z RAP Kuchera Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, yotaman said: Me thinks a lot of people will be disappointed when they wake up tomorrow morning and thru out the day. Sounds to me like you've been reading that special weather book written by some crusty old lifetime North Carolinian called "33 and rain: A story of my life and North Carolina Winter Weather". Most of us have that book on the shelf in these parts and drag it out at least once each year. 2 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 46 minutes ago, Bevo said: Then hopefully that will help keep temps from climbing into unmanageable territory. Yeah, except full sun now, already into the low 40s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR has decent snow into Hillsborough by 9z tomorrow, which sorta matches the NAM timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 15z RAP Kuchera Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, yotaman said: Me thinks a lot of people will be disappointed when they wake up tomorrow morning and thru out the day. No risk no reward, I figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run. Oddly enough, if you take DT's call map and slide it 50-75 miles southwest like I said earlier you end up with what looks like the RAP forecast here. I can easily see this being our outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: You wanna be careful with the RAP because it's really bad that far out in it's run. That far out? So is it best to use once the storm starts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That far out? So is it best to use once the storm starts? It’s what they call a real-time model. It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment. Fascinating stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That far out? So is it best to use once the storm starts? Well it was designed for short term use like the old RUC. The further out it got, the less reliable it is to use kinda like the 48 hr HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Oddly enough, if you take DT's call map and slide it 50-75 miles southwest like I said earlier you end up with what looks like the RAP forecast here. I can easily see this being our outcome. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Jackpotting a foot just south of GSO?? Nice! But the RGEM may be flying solo on this one. Not a lot of support elsewhere. Check please! (15 miles south of GSO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Warm nose , from my experience , is an issue in the southern piedmont from the SC/NC line up to roughly China Grove. Salisbury normally manages to stay mostly snow! BUT, as another poster said, heavy precip at the onset will make all the difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: It’s what they call a real-time model. It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment. Fascinating stuff. Wouldn't it be called the RTM instead of RAP then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The Canadian was a very good run for N.C. the Triad into SW Va would have warning level snows and the triangle would be advisory level for the most part. Gets that deform band going and goes across the whole state pretty much. Amounts not high East of Triad but widespread snow, and less splotchy. Sorry upstate, tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Wouldn't it be called the RTM instead of RAP then? stock ticker methodology 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 UKMet looks like a good compromise to me in terms of how the precip will progress...it's kind of in between the more north Canadian modeling (CMC/RGEM) and the farther south American modeling (GFS/NAM) from the 12z runs. You see the trailing batch of precip associated with the closed upper low roll thru west to east across NC at the end. Challenge is figuring out the precip type / precip type changeover, then how much will accumulate based on rates, snow ratio, and surface temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 UKMet total precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Concord current OBS Temp-43F DP-30 Cloud cover-76% Light SW breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet total precip Nasty dry slot across South central Virginia there. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, davenc said: Warm nose , from my experience , is an issue in the southern piedmont from the SC/NC line up to roughly China Grove. Salisbury normally manages to stay mostly snow! BUT, as another poster said, heavy precip at the onset will make all the difference! Lurker since Feb 2014 storm, No truer statement. I grew up in Concord around Afton, always seemed even N Kannapolis/Landis would be much better than my area 5 miles further South lol Then moved to Mount Ulla area did great, now I live about 3 miles S of Mooresville so I’m curious to see how I hold up here being futher west but slightly further S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: It’s what they call a real-time model. It takes the radar and other readings and tells you what’s going on at the current moment. Fascinating stuff. I think Pella offers a similar model. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I think that DT is generally pretty smart and a good forecaster. I may be biased, I think that my first "rodeo" following these things on models and online and in social media was the Boxing Day 2010 storm, where he was issuing those wild probability maps. I still get an adrenaline rush when I see that *ALEET* on my Facebook feed! That being said I do think he inflates numbers a little to get some more social media exposure. Take 30% off his forecast and I think you have a solid call. Overall, I think the dye has been cast; There's going to be a front-end push of precip that could start as snow, and if it's heavy/quick enough it may surprise some folks/forecasters. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that front-end overperform. Now when I say overperform, I mean "maybe an inch before flipping over", not "all snow event that will break forecasts". After a quick dry spell, the comma head will come in Friday night and drag through the northern 2/3s of the state and drop a half inch to an inch of accumulation, maybe a little more if you're lucky and you're sitting in a nice band. It will hopefully be enough to make things look pretty; great weather for sipping scotch. The place to be, I would say, is likely the NC/VA border, specifically near the mountains where elevation will help BL temps. If I were chasing, I would probably find a nice cabin in Fancy Gap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Mountain folk won't like the latest Hrrr. Mega dry slot for the front end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I think that DT is generally pretty smart and a good forecaster. I may be biased, I think that my first "rodeo" following these things on models and online and in social media was the Boxing Day 2010 storm, where he was issuing those wild probability maps. I still get an adrenaline rush when I see that *ALEET* on my Facebook feed! That being said I do think he inflates numbers a little to get some more social media exposure. Take 30% off his forecast and I think you have a solid call. Overall, I think the dye has been cast; There's going to be a front-end push of precip that could start as snow, and if it's heavy/quick enough it may surprise some folks/forecasters. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that front-end overperform. Now when I say overperform, I mean "maybe an inch before flipping over", not "all snow event that will break forecasts". After a quick dry spell, the comma head will come in Friday night and drag through the northern 2/3s of the state and drop a half inch to an inch of accumulation, maybe a little more if you're lucky and you're sitting in a nice band. It will hopefully be enough to make things look pretty; great weather for sipping scotch. The place to be, I would say, is likely the NC/VA border, specifically near the mountains where elevation will help BL temps. If I were chasing, I would probably find a nice cabin in Fancy Gap. Good post. In fairness to DT, who I like to criticize, his first guess maps are usually inflated like you said but he does a good job of realizing his mistakes and makes major changes to later calls. I've been dinged too many times by his early calls in my area that are way too high. I've learned.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Mountain folk won't like the latest Hrrr. Mega dry slot for the front end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 New map from GSP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Euro is warmer so far... Even a mix up here in McDowell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro Looks like a push of better moisture further north, thus the “warmer” look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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