Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

Gonna be interesting seeing the snowsqualls tomorrow moving northeastward.  Kind of unusual around these parts.

Looks like much of the DVN area could get caught in a mini-screw zone tomorrow with everything spinning around the area.  

[kevlon62]

We'll get out of the next two days with some snow cover remaining just fine.

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[McHenrySnow]

3 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

We'll get out of the next two days with some snow cover remaining just fine.

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The clouds will help. Of course, your snowpack is a bit deeper than mine. We've been above freezing since 5 am. 

 

[A-L-E-K]

[mimillman]

6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

The clouds will help. Of course, your snowpack is a bit deeper than mine. We've been above freezing since 5 am. 

 

Must be a hard life up there

[cyclone77]

Looks like MSP should do well with this, perhaps 6"+. 

[Cary67]

25 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Stop denying your heritage. Come back to the snow cover⛷

[A-L-E-K]

oh god

[mimillman]

On 1/12/2021 at 6:51 AM, mimillman said:

Sold.

DAB+ call here

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

Could you elaborate as to how the trends have been GOOD for N Illinois? Or do you just prefer to name-call like a child? 

Christ man, take a xanax and chill a bit. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

31 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Stop denying your heritage. Come back to the snow cover⛷

Pretty similar look here. Glacier is in full force. 

[McHenrySnow]

17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Christ man, take a xanax and chill a bit. 

So you can't. Good to know. 

[Cary67]

18 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Pretty similar look here. Glacier is in full force. 

Its been really reluctant to melt much. North facing driveway helps or hurts depending on perspective 

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

So you can't. Good to know. 

let me help. The trends are pretty much on track for a 24-36 hour period of snow showers/squalls wrapping around an occluding upper low. Model output on accumulations in situations like this are variable at best. If your looking for a solid 4" event this is not it. If your looking for periods of snowshowers with the potential for an inch or two over a long period of time you'll be pleasantly surprised I suspect. More importantly, it maybe signalling a colder and snowier pattern versus days on end of cloudy and seasonable temps. Personally, I like these type of set ups as a winter weather enthusiast (). Perspective is key.

[hawkeye_wx]

Some solid snow is looking good for areas to my west up through Minnesota.  As cyclone said, having the low directly over our area will greatly limit the snow.

[McHenrySnow]

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

let me help. The trends are pretty much on track for a 24-36 hour period of snow showers/squalls wrapping around an occluding upper low. Model output on accumulations in situations like this are variable at best. If your looking for a solid 4" event this is not it. If your looking for periods of snowshowers with the potential for an inch or two over a long period of time you'll be pleasantly surprised I suspect. More importantly, it maybe signalling a colder and snowier pattern versus days on end of cloudy and seasonable temps. Personally, I like these type of set ups as a winter weather enthusiast (). Perspective is key.

Still doesn't change the fact that it has trended worse for us each run. Monday evening it was looking much nicer. Even yesterday morning. My concerns are the marginal (at best) temperatures and if we don't see steady snow, I could easily see a tenth or two falling and then melting so on and so forth. I have hopes the pattern gets better after this, but I'm not as excited as I had been even last week. 

Cary's 15" at ORD call by March 1 is looking good. 

[Chicago Storm]

Cary's 15" at ORD call by March 1 is looking good. 

lol


.

[McHenrySnow]

I'd rather expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than the other way around. 

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Still doesn't change the fact that it has trended worse for us each run. Monday evening it was looking much nicer. Even yesterday morning. My concerns are the marginal (at best) temperatures and if we don't see steady snow, I could easily see a tenth or two falling and then melting so on and so forth. I have hopes the pattern gets better after this, but I'm not as excited as I had been even last week. 

Cary's 15" at ORD call by March 1 is looking good. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

NWS going bullish with snow totals, and I can’t blame them. Model trends certainly in our favor up here. Going to be a nowcast event, someone will get screwed.

[beavis1729]

Why are people in this sub-forum so interested in polishing turds, and insisting/lecturing that we must be ok with this crappy winter...and the recent crappy winters?  And expecting us to be ok with climo or worse?  What is the obsession with this, and castigating people who dare to have hope? 

Even with the much appreciated input and analysis from mets and others, it makes the sub-forum unreadable.  

At a minimum, this forum should at least have a neutral slant.  And, if anything, it should lean in the weenie direction.  We all know how horrible our climo is - we don't need to be reminded every day, and we don't need to "be grateful" when a pattern *may* be changing by the end of January, after wasting 6+ weeks of winter.  If some people want to be grateful, fine...but don't expect others to be.   If I'm a Bears fan, am I grateful for an 8-8 season and limping out of the playoffs?

Heaven forbid that McHenry Snow actually hopes for (and expects) the weather to be wintry in winter.  After an absolutely horrendous stretch, we're supposed to be excited about T-2" of snow with this system?  His concerns with this upcoming system are relevant. 

If I liked warm weather, does it make me a weenie to hope for and expect sunny days with temps in the 80s during summer?  No...because we expect summer in summer, and winter in winter.  Come on...is this what we've come to?  Let's support the weenies of the world, and be hopeful.  If McHenry snow were going over the top in extreme fashion and complaining every minute of every day and bashing others, that's one thing...but this is not like that at all.

Ugh...going into hiding again.

 

[RyanDe680]

lol

 

everyone is losing it

[DaveNay]

Just now, RyanDe680 said:

lol

 

everyone is losing it

Not me....I'm happy with a wimpy winter like this.

But then again, that's why I am in the process of moving south to weather that better suits my desires. 

[Hoosier]

20 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

RGEM

and this

 

Yesterday's run made an oopsie.  Here is today's 12z, which has heavier totals farther west.

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

getting lucky with some localized banding under the ULL friday afternoon would be nice but it's a dice roll setup

 

This is an area average sounding at 3PM Friday for the Chicago metro from the RGEM. Surface-based instability that includes the DGZ would be a good setup for mod/hvy snow showers.

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

 

This is an area average sounding at 3PM Friday for the Chicago metro from the RGEM. Surface-based instability that includes the DGZ would be a good setup for mod/hvy snow showers.

Someone will get lucky with the convective nature of the wrap around snow showers. Others will get shafted. Still going with DAB+ area wide, 1-3" where you get lucky. At a minimum, it should like winter everywhere.

[Chicago Storm]

lol
 
everyone is losing it

beavis does this like 5 times a winter.


.

[RyanDe680]

17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

beavis does this like 5 times a winter.


.

yeah you're right... i forgot about that...

[McHenrySnow]

[sbnwx85]

IWX has yet to issue a Snow Squall Warning since they were created a couple seasons ago. Thoughts on any of these squalls reaching warning criteria on Friday? That's gonna be about the most fun I think I'll get out of this system.