Chicago Storm

Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

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One issue for the LOT cwa is temps at onset.  The NAM looks too cold in this setup (with temps AOB freezing for the bulk of the cwa) so precip at onset could either be rain or inefficient accumulating snow.  Could get a nice burst of snow then but I am perhaps more interested in what happens when the cold core aloft comes in on Friday, especially with a little diurnal heating.  Sometimes that can overperform but on a more localized basis.

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

RGEM/GEM/Ukie in lock step for Thur-Sat...ride ‘em.

1-2" inbound. Tipping 3" in Rfd. ORD gaining momentum towards 15" seasonal totals by March 1st

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Here's LOT's take

 

Thursday through Monday...

A large upper trough will dig over the central CONUS on Thursday
as an upper ridge amplifies over western North America. This upper
trough will then develop into a closed upper low late Thursday
over the Midwest, then gradually shift eastward across our area
on Friday. Overall, this will result in a period of cool and
active weather across the region late Thursday through Friday.

Precipitation is expected to develop over the area Thursday
afternoon. As it onsets, expect it to be in the form of rain, due
to initially mild temperatures close to 40 Thursday afternoon.
However, this light rain is expected to transition to light snow
from west to east through Thursday evening. Some minor snow
accumulations will be possible Thursday evening, but amounts look
to remain under an inch.

As we head into Friday the upper low is expected to shift
overhead, and this essentially set up a vertically stacked
surface and upper low over the area. Additional periods of snow
can be expected over the area on Friday, and it looks to be more
showery (convective) in nature. Low-level lapse rates should
steepen considerably as a much cooler atmospheric column develops
under the upper low overhead. As such, we could see some scattered
instances of more vigorous snow shower activity on Friday, which
in turn could support additional accumulations. This snow shower
activity may persist into Friday night before the the entire
weather system shifts to our east into Saturday.

For the weekend and into early next week it looks like
temperatures will be a bit colder then in recent days following
the passage of the late week storm system. While our current
blended forecast guidance suggests advertises a generally
precipitation free period from this weekend onward, we will have
to watch for some additional chances of snow later in the
weekend. There is some support in the forecast guidance with
another northwestern impulse tracking across the area sometime
around Sunday. If trends continue to support this, future forecast
updates will need to consider adding in a mention of light snow
for the area later in the weekend as this potential system tracks
across the area.

KJB

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's LOT's take

 

Thursday through Monday...

A large upper trough will dig over the central CONUS on Thursday
as an upper ridge amplifies over western North America. This upper
trough will then develop into a closed upper low late Thursday
over the Midwest, then gradually shift eastward across our area
on Friday. Overall, this will result in a period of cool and
active weather across the region late Thursday through Friday.

Precipitation is expected to develop over the area Thursday
afternoon. As it onsets, expect it to be in the form of rain, due
to initially mild temperatures close to 40 Thursday afternoon.
However, this light rain is expected to transition to light snow
from west to east through Thursday evening. Some minor snow
accumulations will be possible Thursday evening, but amounts look
to remain under an inch.

As we head into Friday the upper low is expected to shift
overhead, and this essentially set up a vertically stacked
surface and upper low over the area. Additional periods of snow
can be expected over the area on Friday, and it looks to be more
showery (convective) in nature. Low-level lapse rates should
steepen considerably as a much cooler atmospheric column develops
under the upper low overhead. As such, we could see some scattered
instances of more vigorous snow shower activity on Friday, which
in turn could support additional accumulations. This snow shower
activity may persist into Friday night before the the entire
weather system shifts to our east into Saturday.

For the weekend and into early next week it looks like
temperatures will be a bit colder then in recent days following
the passage of the late week storm system. While our current
blended forecast guidance suggests advertises a generally
precipitation free period from this weekend onward, we will have
to watch for some additional chances of snow later in the
weekend. There is some support in the forecast guidance with
another northwestern impulse tracking across the area sometime
around Sunday. If trends continue to support this, future forecast
updates will need to consider adding in a mention of light snow
for the area later in the weekend as this potential system tracks
across the area.

KJB

Sounds really enthused. 

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best glorified cold front ever, hah

Actually an organized system on the RGEM/GEM/Ukie.


.

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without angry summons input I'm sort of lost.

Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and kick this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern.


.
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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and kick this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern.


.

image.gif.5d8609e776e5a944b135d60a92ecb51f.gif

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and ejaculate this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern.


.

fixed... you forgot the reference...

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"TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY APPEAR A BIT BROAD   
BRUSHED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS   
ULTIMATELY END UP, BUT AT THIS POINT, A ROUGH RANGE OF A DUSTING   
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES   
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT."- LOT AFD

well played.

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21 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Terrible trends for N IL. 

Must be something in the water in McHenry/Lake counties breeding super weenies. We need to start you guys a support group.

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4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Must be something in the water in McHenry/Lake counties breeding super weenies. We need to start you guys a support group.

Could you elaborate as to how the trends have been GOOD for N Illinois? Or do you just prefer to name-call like a child? 

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