Chicago Storm

Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

This is likely way overdone, but I do like the look for some rippage and a surprise overperformer 

Don't worry I fixed it.

image.png.18c150fa4ae1abdb08630334d505e443.png

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Yep, you got me, the 15z RAP is definitely not a complete outlier whatsoever. I better get my shovel ready. :wacko:

I really don't get some of you, other than you're just jerks. 

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meltdowns on 1"-3" fluff storms is new even for this board. Don't want to see what happens when a 12"-18" er  slides south and east less than 18 hours out.:o

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7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Yep, you got me, the 15z RAP is definitely not a complete outlier whatsoever. I better get my shovel ready. :wacko:

I really don't get some of you, other than you're just jerks. 

Here are some more outliers

1610884800-7LjOjBRwUJ4.png

 

1610884800-COucUtAZuLw.png

1610884800-USVgSD1NRNA.png

 

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Just now, Baum said:

meltdowns on 1"-3" fluff storms is new even for this board. Don't want to see what happens when a 12"-18" er  slides south and east less than 18 hours out.:o

Literally no one is melting down. Some people are just a**holes. 

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

 

Not a single one of those runs had occurred when I posted. 

I thought y'all liked looking at trends at not hugging single model runs, but it appears to be otherwise. Enjoy your dusting that melts the next day. 

There's also a big difference between 2-3" and 7-10", but, of course, you know that. 

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11 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Literally no one is melting down. Some people are just a**holes. 

In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. FWIW...still looks like a couple nice wintry days coming up.

On Cue: " AFTER THE VERY LONG QUIET STRETCH ENDING WITH THE PRECIP THURSDAY-  
THURSDAY NIGHT, A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
AND LIKELY BEYOND DAY 7. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW  
SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW   
SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW   
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY."- LOT AFD

If all goes well I can walk the arboretum this weekend and take in the snow covered forests.

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7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

you can't just call people assholes in response to some kid glove tier ribbing and not expect some pushback

Please DM me the meaning of glove tier ribbing :D

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. 

I had a crappy morning and the piling on wasn't helpful. And you say it's just snow, but snow is literally one of my favorite things in the world. Yes, I can't control it, but it doesn't mean I don't get disappointed when I wake up and see NAM and Canadian models trended much further NW with the heavier snow. Who would have imagined saying that was a bad trend would end up causing so much nonsense? 

Regardless, I'm done with it. There's no use trying to engage with some posters and that's fine, I know better now. 

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Just now, RyanDe680 said:

expected sexual reference is coming from the wrong person

I'm actually not sure it's entirely sexual, and I'm saying that as likely the most potty-mouthed poster alive. 

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1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

Big :weenie: question is what will LOT issue.

Nothing. This doesn't even warrant a WWA. I mean, if the squalls materialize maybe a squall warning or a WWA for the possibility, but they're pretty conservative with watches/warnings imo so I don't expect anything. 

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Once again the upper midwest/eastern plains scores a very obvious days ago victory. Big surprise. Some major weenie desperation.

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Even though it's unlikely I'll be receiving big accumulations out of this, I certainly like the convective look of the snow showers being modeled. Maybe if I'm lucky I could experience my first snow squall warning :weenie:

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DVN forecasting amounts under an inch for the southeast half or so of their cwa.  I'm a little more optimistic that most areas will exceed an inch by later Friday.  Just gonna ride the 1-2" call for here/QC.  Will be nice to put a fresh coat overtop the older glacier.

 

fnfn.jpg

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3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

for those of you fond of the RAP

Screen Shot 2021-01-13 at 6.17.32 PM.png

Most of the area will get a DAB+. Some areas will get 1-3". That's the most you could have ever hoped for from this event unless you're in the snow capital of the world Minneapolis.

1610884800-I1FJsy1DH3w.png

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Quite a read catching up on the posts today. I felt like if anything we had a slight favorable trend of getting anything interesting tomorrow. There's support there for rain changing to a fairly short thump of snow from large scale (mid-level height falls and positive vorticity advection from a vort lobe wrapping around the ULL) and mesoscale from steep lapse rates and 850-700 mb fgen. Limiting factor is residence time of heavier rates and antecedent mild temps.

 

Don't have too much to add on Friday's snow shower potential other than that it's a pretty good synoptic setup for them and[mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] posted a forecast sounding to highlight this. Finally, I like Sunday for a longer period of light to at times moderate snow with forcing rather modest but good DGZ depth and steep mid-upper lapse rates. None of this should add up to anything more than a few inches in the Chicago metro, but it's certainly a nice change from the long boring stretch.

 

It's always good to keep expectations in check and appreciate the meteorology of some of these setups. I really do think our time is coming for something a lot more fun during the late month period and into February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tonight's 3k NAM and RDPS have shifted heavier snow totals into eastern Iowa.  Meanwhile, the latest HRRR shifted west a bit.  The 12k NAM is still west.  I would love to get into the windy, snowy deformation zone

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