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Chicago Storm

Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

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Have been meaning to start a thread like this for the past few winters, but always end up forgetting... Just a little something for these systems, such as the one today/tomorrow, that don’t quite make it to being thread worthy...

 

 

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And speaking of the system for tonight, most guidance bumped back north...with agreement on 1-2” for a good portion of the area.


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18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And speaking of the system for tonight, most guidance bumped back north...with agreement on 1-2” for a good portion of the area.


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Good idea. :snowing: One thing I'll say the touch of snow and ice we got yesterday is very picturesque. An inch or so of fluff would only make it more so, 

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looks like a good burst of snow to come through late tonight, but temps look to be mild, 32-33. 

 

This thread is a good idea instead of putting everything non-thread worthy in the monthly discussion thread.

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I remember the days where we had to worry about nw trends but that hasnt been the case for awhile. Rap/nam have been consistent bringing the banding to about m-59. Dtx seems to think it'll stay at the border.

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Ice has been slow to melt here. The snow that fell last night is still on on top of the ice. Pretty remarkable and beautiful.  But there’s also plenty of ice on the trees and the wind is starting to blow again. Not real excited for the inch or two of cement coming. I’m afraid we’re going to see outages skyrocket overnight and into the morning.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

looks like a good burst of snow to come through late tonight, but temps look to be mild, 32-33. 

 

This thread is a good idea instead of putting everything non-thread worthy in the monthly discussion thread.

Similar concept with what we do with the non-thread worthy severe weather days.

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As others have mentioned in January thread, tonight looks good for a solid fairly short- lived burst of snow. Nice mid-level lapse rate (>7C/km) plume advecting northward over the mini trowal across northeast and central IL and northwest Indiana.

 

One of these similar setups last winter produced a localized swath of 3-4". I think 1-2" amounts will be common for all but the northern tier, with spots of 2-3". Can't rule out a very localized 3"+ given the nature of these potent little waves with good lapse rates.

 

 

 

 

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IWX 7pm update

.Update...
Issued at 717 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

Trends in near term guidance along with upstream sat/radar depiction
of vigorous sw disturbance and attendant baroclinic leaf lifting out
of nrn AR and expansion of radar returns through cntrl TN/wrn KY
along leading edge of return moisture plume. This portents a brief
period of mod-hvy snow likely to develop after midnight. Some nw
displacement of H7 dilatation axis also noted in model guidance and
suspect a robust deformation response aloft will occur overhead for
a time late tonight. Thus have backed prior gridded stripe of higher
qpf a bit nwwd esp under the guise of related H7 pivot point shaping
up further nw from prior. Otherwise with a period of low static
stability aloft timed with wwd arching but brief trowal, some banded
enhancement likely which may yield some over performance in snow
amounts northeast. Regardless rapid newd progression of upper sys
lends a risk of going any higher with top end snow probs even though
they may verify correct in some locations far northeast. Otherwise
primarily a snow event with drizzle persisting this evening before
ice nucleation takes over with arrival of upstream mid level
moisture slug.
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Corridor between Champaign and Lincoln will end up with several inches.


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8 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

?

There's a high likelihood of 6"+ snow in 12hrs or less in a portion of the ILX cwa.  No advisories or anything other than dense fog advisory at present.

EDIT:  ILX did take the time to peck out a special weather statement though (after 3"+ has already fallen lol)

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Radar estimates over 0.3" of precip fell in the past hour around the Cisco area to the west of Monticello/Champaign.  Likely 2-3" per hour rates there the past hour, and it continues.

Total precip bullseye up a max around 1.50” now. Even with a full half reduction, that’s over 7”.


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This system had overachiever written all over it as we were discussing in the January thread.  Just wasn't sure exactly where.

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Looks like higher totals will translate into N IN as well, as banding is setting up as the UL disturbance pushes ENE.


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Baby Kanuk nailed the snow around Champaign at 00Z if it comes to fruition.  Have some low/mid level dry air issues in IN but as the UL moves ENE should ring those out in the next hour..  Possible defo zone setting up from around Danville Il. up through Marion IN.  -SN here, probably reach my 2in forecast for temporary relief from mudpocalypse.  Points just to my N, especially IWX, are still in the game for an over performer.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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