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January 2021

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I know it’s hard to get excited for Lr events this year, but last nights runs definitely added intrigue for the 1st-2nd. 
 

00z euro:

902DE776-C1B6-4EFF-81E6-AD95BD85576D.thumb.png.49e1f3bc79993a43c31a281b0cd6e1d4.png
 

Eps, cmc ens, and gefs all look favorable for that time period as well. 

This is the period when the NAO relaxes. Might be the best chance.

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Woah RGEM is warning level for NW CT.  24 hours of snow here with 2 to 4. Huge differences with the NAM

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year.  It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter.  The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly.  

May not be a bad presumption ...no -

We've seen "-NAO winters" do something like this in the past often enough, where just when we think the -NAO is gone... it just starts festering back into the future guidance. Personally, I've stopped looking at the NAO ...because I firmly believe the NAO is a manifestation of non-linear forcing downstream of the Pacific wave dispersion shit ...anyway, and the directive to focus on that region really should be just used to show that said processes are taking place - In other words...the forcing is coming from the Pacific in the latter wave function - it's really the type of concept and understanding that will resonate clearly in this social-media bubble, sure ...

Anyway, for storm enthusiasts, ... pulsing the -NAO back to nuetral or modestly positive, rinse repeat .. probably situates events when it is rising... Then, limiting the realization going back the other way.  It doesn't mean there can't be events and interesting stuff to track on the off-cycles of course.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Woah RGEM is warning level for NW CT.  24 hours of snow here with 2 to 4. Huge differences with the NAM

RGEM has maintained the shortwave integrity better than the NAM which is why it’s liking the precip further northeast and more robust amounts where it falls. ICON does this to an even more extreme...which we can probably toss since it’s getting a few inches well into NNE. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Rgem leading the way?

since we cant have the 29th, lets squeeze out as much as we can from the 26th before the cold air locks in for a bit....better than bare ground at least

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

since we cant have the 29th, lets squeeze out as much as we can from the 26th before the cold air locks in for a bit....better than bare ground at least

Another 48hr of runs and we’ll be raining. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Another 48hr of runs and we’ll be raining. 

ugghhh, do not mention that, it has been trending north....probably end up with periods of freezing drizzle or snizzle for 24 hours or so after the initial "snow event"

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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

As a blockbuster, sure.  But we can move the blues 75 miles in four days and get the season's second best event for the south coast.

gfs_apcpn24_us_17.png

I like the enthusiasm but if im struggling to get more than flakes down here I dont see how this would push much more north the only thing we are hoping for is a close to the coast start up but that floods a lot of areas along the coast with warmth until it bombs and flips it for locals. Track has been fairly solid with this one for the past ~2 days

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

ugghhh, do not mention that, it has been trending north....probably end up with periods of freezing drizzle or snizzle for 24 hours or so after the initial "snow event"

At least it will feel like winter all week if the gfs is right. On and off Flakes in the air all week. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Quite unlikely considering that is the most favorable piece of guidance and the block isn’t going anywhere. Euro is significantly southeast of that. 

After looking at the 12z GFS...it's on to February.

Edit, it's on to Tuesday, lol.

 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At least it will feel like winter all week if the gfs is right. On and off Flakes in the air all week. 

we might get our days and days of snow....might only add up to 2-4 inches, but I will take that any day in a season like this. Currently 25 under bright sun and it is freezing outside, at least give us some flakes in the air if it is going to be cold like this

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM has maintained the shortwave integrity better than the NAM which is why it’s liking the precip further northeast and more robust amounts where it falls. ICON does this to an even more extreme...which we can probably toss since it’s getting a few inches well into NNE. 

Said that many days ago, we’d want that shortwave to be a nuke to cut into the block some.

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If the gfs is right I would think it’s better near the pike area and even N and E. 925-850 actually gets mild in SW CT whereas you have a better WF signature to the northeast. I’d imagine that would help. But then again gfs may be wrong. 

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GGEM is pretty decent too. Maintains that shortwave integrity longer and gets the steadier snows into SNE. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is pretty decent too. Maintains that shortwave integrity longer and gets the steadier snows into SNE. 

at least 24hrs of snow on that model too.....lots of light snow flying around if these models have a clue

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