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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs looked better. Come on 2/2/15.

Yeah the upside of this is probably about what that storm was. Obviously everything would have to go right but that one had the sfc low almost into CLE before redeveloping. 

I’d be happy with a solid advisory event at this point just so we don’t have to go another two weeks with bare ground. 

 

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12/25/02 was absolutely pounding white out snow on 128 until flipping to heavy rain somewhere near the stupid 93 intersection where you're going north south east and west at the same time.  

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28 minutes ago, radarman said:

12/25/02 was absolutely pounding white out snow on 128 until flipping to heavy rain somewhere near the stupid 93 intersection where you're going north south east and west at the same time.  

LOL by Canton? Yeah.....the poor people back in the day visiting with no GPS. Terrible road design. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the upside of this is probably about what that storm was. Obviously everything would have to go right but that one had the sfc low almost into CLE before redeveloping. 

I’d be happy with a solid advisory event at this point just so we don’t have to go another two weeks with bare ground. 

 

I'm white, maybe 1/4 inch but looks like winter. Be nice to get a thicker pack though.

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45 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Disagree.  The realtionship with the solar nadir is blocking.  We have had blocking up the wazoo!

A true blocking pattern would make it easier to get sustained cold air masses into the E US.  That cold air mass has been lacking this winter.  We haven't even had a 1-2 day fleeting arctic air mass here this winter.  I don't think Boston has been below 25F since December 1.

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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

A true blocking pattern would make it easier to get sustained cold air masses into the E US.  That cold air mass has been lacking this winter.  We haven't even had a 1-2 day fleeting arctic air mass here this winter.  I don't think Boston has been below 25F since December 1.

I stand corrected.  Boston did get below 25F between 12/16 and 12/19.

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12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

A true blocking pattern would make it easier to get sustained cold air masses into the E US.  That cold air mass has been lacking this winter.  We haven't even had a 1-2 day fleeting arctic air mass here this winter.  I don't think Boston has been below 25F since December 1.

Blocking has nothing to do with getting the cold air. It keeps whatever airmass arrives in place longer. All the cold was/is on the other side of the globe without a mechanism to drive it to our side. That’s improving though, slowly. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Blocking has nothing to do with getting the cold air. It keeps whatever airmass arrives in place longer. All the cold was/is on the other side of the globe without a mechanism to drive it to our side. That’s improving though, slowly. 

Well, -AO/NAO does help dislodge cold in the general sense, since it entails higher heights over the arctic, but yea....primary vehicle for the delivery of real arctic  cold is an EPO and/or PNA ridge. Having both is ideal for cross polar flow....we had that on roids in 2015.

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18z eps was pretty decent looking...one more bump north would be ideal though...it’s good that primary is trying to rip up into Ohio...would like to get it tickling CLE eventually  

image.png.3e9bce7a28b82d31517bd37a129bc65b.png

 

image.png.21ea2a55bf891138c293d5e87ed6d332.png

 

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not bad....I don't expect much here, but hopefully south of the pike does okay.

I thought you said normally you want to take away snow if you can’t have it. :lol: 

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps was pretty decent looking...one more bump north would be ideal though...it’s good that primary is trying to rip up into Ohio...would like to get it tickling CLE eventually  

image.png.3e9bce7a28b82d31517bd37a129bc65b.png

 

image.png.21ea2a55bf891138c293d5e87ed6d332.png

 

Hope this gif works

20210120_211454.gif

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z eps was pretty decent looking...one more bump north would be ideal though...it’s good that primary is trying to rip up into Ohio...would like to get it tickling CLE eventually  

image.png.3e9bce7a28b82d31517bd37a129bc65b.png

 

image.png.21ea2a55bf891138c293d5e87ed6d332.png

 

Primary to Cleveland works for me!

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15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eustis.

Canada trail is the best is what I am hearing.  Rode some logging roads Sunday and a bit of trail that was actually groomed and you can get around but the woods is thin. I'll be riding out of there Saturday with my boy.

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The energy in Canada lifts north, but voila, another piece of energy backs into Maine to squash the storm.

gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png

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7 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The energy in Canada lifts north, but voila, another piece of energy backs into Maine to squash the storm.

gfs_z500_vort_us_22.png

Everything is south so far tonight

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Everything is south so far tonight

Persistence for the win ... or the loss in this case.

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