USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 9th-11th timeframe looks to mainly hinge on the interaction between what looks like an polar vortex/arctic jet vorticity lobe that closes off over Ontario, Canada and tries to phase with the southern stream system moving out of the central Plains into the MS Valley and eventually off the NC coastline. There is no run to run continuity and there is no consensus on the eventual track of this system and potential phasing mechanisms. The potential is there for any scenario. If the Ontario PV lobe does end up moving this far south, around 41N or 40N in latitude, then the cold air will be in the picture, the ominous nature of where its origins are and the movement make this setup ominous and anomalous. Therefore, the region this lobe is coming from, my guess until better sampling happens, we will not have any idea on the potential phasing end job that occurs. In fact, the 00z ICON is so far off, there is no system in this time frame I mentioned! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Brian got screwed 10-20”...lol. I did that in 3 hours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Ukie is further north for 8th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is further north for 8th UKMET is at a great location right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 500 MB graphic question: What does the blue-shaded region in southern New England represent? An upper-air low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, RDRY said: 500 MB graphic question: What does the blue-shaded region in southern New England represent? An upper-air low? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Very strange little feature just comes down to pay us a visit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Very strange little feature just comes down to pay us a visit I'm out on this threat. Hope I'm wrong, but not feeling it here. Good luck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm out on this threat. Hope I'm wrong, but not feeling it here. Good luck. Tonights Euro comes up with another threat on the 12th into the 13th FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Tonights Euro comes up with another threat on the 12th into the 13th FWIW Yea, I think we will eventually do okay, but not this wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 hours ago, RDRY said: 500 MB graphic question: What does the blue-shaded region in southern New England represent? An upper-air low? The tears of sad CT posters after this weekend's miss. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 That area of upper level low pressure is an arctic jet vorticity lobe that tries and phase with the 50/50 low and then into the southern stream trough that develops our coastal/ocean storm for Friday. This low brings very cold air into the region, so if there is a phase, cold air is not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 hours ago, yoda said: Tonights Euro comes up with another threat on the 12th into the 13th FWIW Would be nice to have a storm on the ten year anniversary of one of the greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, Hoth said: Would be nice to have a storm on the ten year anniversary of one of the greats. Yeah that one was not the case here, and I was at boot camp, at least headed to San Antonio, Texas for Lackland AFB, Air Force Basic Military Training! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 45 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: That area of upper level low pressure is an arctic jet vorticity lobe that tries and phase with the 50/50 low and then into the southern stream trough that develops our coastal/ocean storm for Friday. This low brings very cold air into the region, so if there is a phase, cold air is not an issue. Another massive hit for SNE................... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Another massive hit for SNE................... odds never favor a massive storm. So with that in hand, no we will likely not see a massive hit. Just wait and see how this plays out, odds are the shortwave will not go where it needs to go for the area to get a widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: odds never favor a massive storm. So with that in hand, no we will likely not see a massive hit. Just wait and see how this plays out, odds are the shortwave will not go where it needs to go for the area to get a widespread event. Better odds of Nesmith going for 40 in the next C's game......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Personally I think we have a better shot with the 12-13th timeframe than the 9-10 timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 You want the ULL over New England either gone of further N and W if you're looking for a storm here. All that's going to currently do is suppress the storm that's coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You want the ULL over New England either gone of further N and W if you're looking for a storm here. All that's going to currently do is suppress the storm that's coming up the coast. Yea. The orientation is not favorable as depicted. The northern stream kept getting pushed into eastern Canada over the past several cycles so it is most likely a whiff unless you’re in se zones, they (you) can get grazed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Seems like I should have stuck to my gut and said second half of Jan. Anything before is gravy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. The orientation is not favorable as depicted. The northern stream kept getting pushed into eastern Canada over the past several cycles so it is most likely a whiff unless you’re in se zones, they (you) can get grazed. If it's further W, it may be able to draw that storm a bit closer along the coast line. There may also be some OES/OER associate with any troughing between the 2 if they remain as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like I should have stuck to my gut and said second half of Jan. Anything before is gravy. a optimistic way of saying anything before Jan 15 -20 looks like crap looks like a steady stream of lows maybe going over 37/70 , I don’t enjoy seeing those bc That just wastes a good period of East coast troughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looking forward, not seeing much to be excited about in the short term/mid term. couple whiffs, marginal temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: a optimistic way of saying anything before Jan 15 -20 looks like crap looks like a steady stream of lows maybe going over 37/70 . I definitely wouldn't rule something out prior, just the overall look. It's quite possible something sneaks in before 1/15. I think for me personally, I look forward to after the 12-15th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I definitely wouldn't rule something out prior, just the overall look. It's quite possible something sneaks in before 1/15. I think for me personally, I look forward to after the 12-15th or so. As I edited post, I just don’t like to see us waste a good period of East coast troughing with near hits . That pattern past 10 days is always changeable I do get it , there is a reason or five that we don’t average 120 inches like I want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 How's the SSW coming? Is it legit? I assume that affects Feb more than Jan if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: How's the SSW coming? Is it legit? I assume that affects Feb more than Jan if so. The SSW is more like a displacement. It is legit, but I'm not sure how it will effect the troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: How's the SSW coming? Is it legit? I assume that affects Feb more than Jan if so. Sending cold into Europe and Asia at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 hours ago, RDRY said: 500 MB graphic question: What does the blue-shaded region in southern New England represent? An upper-air low? Blue balls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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