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Sorry ...

models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this?

image.thumb.gif.5dd62ec743db68a3a72430d2f2958e89.gif
 

is not a very convincingly useful block ... 

Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’

I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look 

 

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Weekend Storm Potential

Following Monday's brief episode of inclement weather, medium range ensemble guidance is signaling a storm system to pass out to sea over the weekend, underneath the developing NAO block. However, it does seem close enough to warrant vigilance over the course of the week.
It appears as though the day to watch is primarily Saturday.
 
ECMWF Ensemble Mean:
EPS.png

 

 
 
 
GFS Ensemble Mean:
 
GEFS.png
 
Canadian Ensemble Mean:
 
GEPS.png
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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry ...

models pos‘ed their way up to this “-NAO” which I put in quotes because this?

image.thumb.gif.5dd62ec743db68a3a72430d2f2958e89.gif
 

is not a very convincingly useful block ... 

Its S displaced so far it’s really more like a a ‘north based subtropical ridge.’

I do however believe if the 1/4 system was deeper mechanically rooted it would have fed into that and perhaps modulate more of D. Str vicinity ... Short of that/either way that’s not a good look 

 

Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met...lol.

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5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Pretty clear-cut southern stream SECS/MECS on analogs, which makes sense given the slightly southernly location of that block, as tip mentioned.

Screenshot_20210103-160033_Chrome.jpg

Yea, not in love with that look. Majority of the region can score a major event, but you can take the SNE upper tier off of the table.

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16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met

I get what he means by the block slipping south a bit. It's not an ideal look for us, but I still see plenty of blocking in the Davis Strait. Strikes me as the type of storm I'd complain about, while posters from CT ostracize me for bitching.

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55 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Why? There seems to be sufficient wave spacing to allow some downstream ridging. It seems workeable to me, a non met...lol.

Yeah I confused you by using the expression ‘useful to us’ ... really the impetus there was just the NAO handling alone.  

...but if the blocking were batter positioned it may parlay your next system there.  Which could be okay anyway ... just sayn’

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