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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well put.   
 

But Nobody was expecting ’11 or ‘15 at those times either....you don’t expect those, they just happen on rare occasions when the pattern is conducive.  That’s about all you can say. 

Right if it happens, sweet. But I think many expect those results when we talk about things looking good. I’m just saying that we shouldn’t always expect those kind of seasons when we say things look favorable. 

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I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California...

That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern

I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. 

That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess I must have a differing opinion about the last 24 hours of guidance blend, re the larger/super synoptic hemisphere than y'all - it's all good.. But I see a tendency here to fug -around with the blocking ( AO and NAO correct up entering the 2nd week), while the mid latitude flow is speeding up the dailies/operational versions -anew- between Hawai'i and California...

That's all code for the previous p.o.s. speed pattern

I realize the snow storm a couple weeks ago in Dec was actually in that faster regime - so that also points out factually that it's not a death sentence to winter necessarily either. 

That said, I don't find the fast atmospheric paradigm as being inherently favoring the type of stuff the cinema weather charter is seeking in this particular social media...that's all. 

 

I've been out all day.....is guidance shifting the blocking south of Greenland?

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Seen folks talking about truly upper echelon potential......you need arctic air around to achieve that, at least in January, anyway....I'm not referring to just temps and I don't necessarily mean P-Type issues. Its tough to pull off a true upper tier systems in mid January without arctic air.

You  have more margin for error at peak climo with respect to temps and reasonably large systems....but good luck pulling widespread 20"+ in mid January without arctic air. I'm not complaining about it...just stating an opinion.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... I'm not going to sugarcoat it, or try to spin it or rationalize it, the last 24 hours of runs are frustrating for winter drama/storm enthusiasts ( ...which is really more like 'model cinema enthusiasts' .. )

I'm sort of kicking myself for not bringing this up two days ago - kind of obvious... I think I might have mentioned it (certainly thought about it) but I just didn't bother to emphasize the aspect.  We're lacking isohypsic gradient ... when for 10 years, we had way too much of it!  ..Ironically, but these 500 mb charted features are just not deep enough.  They are shallow by January climatology.  You're talking closed or quasi closed(ing) features that are 540+ DM dz ... I've seen June troughs that deep wooo!

That's indicative of a mild 500 mb (relative to both season and what's going on around them)..  The 500 mb wind velocities reflect that, circuitously wending  around said features on the order of 50 .. 80 kts.   Just a month ago, the ambient was almost twice that!  Forget the S/W...  Anyway, these S/W and features are lacking mechanical power.   

See, re this 1/4 system in the foreground ...it's not helping its track positions.. You get a torsional feedback that resists its 'drift momentum' from more strength, because deeper anchors sooner.  This thing is paltry ...it's closing one isohypses... and the associated sfc low is a terrifying 996 mbs...so yeah.. it's drifting out. 

The other aspect is just giga motions associated with the NAO handling in the models.  Nuances in the total structure of the NAO as it blossoms its block over the western limb is a bit shaky in the last 24 hours. The GFS runs are hem-hawing and trying to make it a S based NAO ... not sure that has the same "slowing" kinematic influence on this 1/4 thing.  The Euro still has it more D. Str. however ..and yet it still sends this thing east into taunt distances.. I think really we could benefit from a stronger input to help anchor this sooner. That was more suggestive four days ago ... but, since...  You know, we've been consummately correcting late mid range systems less amplified as they near in time - maybe remember that.

Answers my earlier question...I'd rather see the GFS do that, than the EURO.

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure @ORH_wxman can hep me here....name the January events that dropped widespread 20"+ over a relatively large area without a true arctic airmass....probably a fairly short list.

1/12/11 off the top of my head. Prob not many others. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought there was arctic air around for that? I was in the teens when it began, so it was a decent airmass.

It was colder than our airmasses for the next week but i don’t think I’d qualify it as arctic. It was like -5C 850 antecedent. 

I don’t remember it being in the teens in that one. Maybe like mid 20s on the cold side of the CF. 

 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It was colder than our airmasses for the next week but i don’t think I’d qualify it as arctic. It was like -5C 850 antecedent. 

I don’t remember it being in the teens in that one. Maybe like mid 20s on the cold side of the CF. 

 

 

Fair enough.

One event.....I rest my case.

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough.

One event.....I rest my case.

I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. 

Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. 

Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. 

What was a 20"+'er in Jan 78? 

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

What was a 20"+'er in Jan 78? 

1/19-20/78....not even sure I’d qualify it as “widespread” 20 inches but BOS had 21.4 I think. It was their biggest snowfall on record at the time...a record that would last about 2 weeks. :lol:

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. 

Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. 

Jan '18? Although that was a cold antecedent airmass. 

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