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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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The super cold air in central and western Canada looks to be on the move south after New Years.  How far south and east it goes is the question.  At least we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere.  Any buckle in the jet stream will open the flood gates.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

 

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It looks like Christmas day will be best spent outside hiking default_laugh.png  Please don't shoot the messenger 
1640455200-U97hWicflpE.png

I’m fine with that lol presents and food are overrated anyways.

Seriously though I’m stunned at how warm meteorological “winter” has been here in 2021-22. Makes sense with a roaring Pacific though but crazy to experience
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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:


I’m fine with that lol presents and food are overrated anyways

That is exactly what I am doing  :D  It will be quiet anyplace I decide to go, so now to figure out where I want to explore. I'd much rather have a snow filled landscape, but a perfect 70 degree day is a good consolation any time of the year  :lol:

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2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That is exactly what I am doing  :D  It will be quiet anyplace I decide to go, so now to figure out where I want to explore. I'd much rather have a snow filled landscape, but a perfect 70 degree day is a good consolation any time of the year  :lol:

Now that we arent going away, Im thinking somewhere J and I can take the dogs for a nice hike on xmas day

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6 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Now that we arent going away, Im thinking somewhere J and I can take the dogs for a nice hike on xmas day

I'm sad you had to cancel  :(  For sure the pups will be glad to go hiking instead of relaxing at their B&B ^_^ 

I'm opening up a map of about a 100 mile radius, closing my eyes and letting the curser land wherever and that's where I will go. 

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9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm sad you had to cancel  :(  For sure the pups will be glad to go hiking instead of relaxing at their B&B ^_^ 

I'm opening up a map of about a 100 mile radius, closing my eyes and letting the curser land wherever and that's where I will go. 

Thanks. Yeah they will be happy wherever we go.   I love your idea of the map and choosing a random location to go explore, that will be so much fun

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There are some signs the western trough tries to propagate eastward and the raging pacific flow trends away with more west coast ridging towards the first week of January. SE ridge never goes away but at least our cutters will be going over the mountains instead of the UP of Michigan and cold air will be much closer instead of north of the Canadian border… 

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13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There are some signs the western trough tries to propagate eastward and the raging pacific flow trends away with more west coast ridging towards the first week of January. SE ridge never goes away but at least our cutters will be going over the mountains instead of the UP of Michigan and cold air will be much closer instead of north of the Canadian border… 

I believe the saying goes "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades." Even with a -EPO and a mega -NAO we still flop in the winter department with persistent west coast troughing. Insane but not unexpected. Better luck next year, fingers crossed for a Nino to return.

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I implore this board to do what i'm planning to do over the holidays: absolutely abuse your local municipal golf course. get your best 18 holes in. learn to hit a stinger. play two balls. go out in headphones and catch up on that audiobook. i guarantee you will have the time because there is absolutely no reason to be on this board or obsessing over the GFS unless you're trying to figure out if you can wing it in short sleeves out there or if you'll need to adorn that pullover in the late afternoon. 

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The upcoming pattern really goes to show that south of New England (and especially south of the mid-Atlantic) you literally need EVERY. SINGLE. INDEX. to be in your favor to get cold or snow.

We have a MONSTER -NAO coming (ya know, the one they say is most important for SE wintry mischief), a MONSTER -EPO coming (ya know, the one they said would be the hardest to flip this winter), the MJO looking to move through phases 8-1-2 (ya know, the best cycle for SE wintry chances) but because of the ONE bad index, the -PNA, it all means squat to us for any shot of prolonged cold or even an outside shot at wintry precip.

What does it take to kill the SE ridge? Seems like climate change has made that feature permanent at this point.

 

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5 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

I implore this board to do what i'm planning to do over the holidays: absolutely abuse your local municipal golf course. get your best 18 holes in. learn to hit a stinger. play two balls. go out in headphones and catch up on that audiobook. i guarantee you will have the time because there is absolutely no reason to be on this board or obsessing over the GFS unless you're trying to figure out if you can wing it in short sleeves out there or if you'll need to adorn that pullover in the late afternoon. 

I had to reread this 3x....I thought it said hit a STRANGER!  Rofl

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28 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. 

There has basically been 0 snow for even mountain peaks like Beech and Mitchell.  No NWFS. Nada. One of the least snowy November/Decembers I have ever seen.

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4 hours ago, DAWGNKITTEN said:

I had to reread this 3x....I thought it said hit a STRANGER!  Rofl

:lol:  Nice to see you posting beautiful lady! :wub:

3 hours ago, burrel2 said:

Not even one semi-credible fantasy threat inside 7 days for the month of December, including mountain regions. Woof. 

IKR?! I'm taking consolation in the fact that the NE/MA weenies are suffering too  :lol: 

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Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo? 

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18 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo? 

None of the models really show the MJO moving much over the next two weeks, so it's hard to say what impact it will have down the line.  And the MJO is just one piece of it all, of course.  It's a tight rope though.  We certainly don't want the MJO hanging out in 3-4-5, so we'll just have to see what transpires with its movement going forward.  I'm less confident with Jan than I was a week ago though.  Western 1/2 of Canada is likely to remain very cold with that ridge in the NPac....plenty of years where we haven't had that going for us

See Weekly MJO Update from CPC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

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