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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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I’d like to wait a few days to see what the polar vortex is actually going to do.  I am more pessimistic at this point but living run to run has proved futile this year.  Wobbles east and west remind me of Hurricane tracking.  Models suck this year but have seemed to trend better within 48h

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Yeah hedging or getting excited about one run from any model is a huge mistake and has been all winter. Say what you will but the euro is struggling.  Literally a 20 to 30 degree change for one area in just one run. The GFS has been a bit more consistent recently.  That being said like some of the mets have already said, there are a lot of variables that are going into what is what... You have the MJO, the PV, all the blocking from one end of the globe to the other. The complexity in which current and future weather patterns are based on are line walking on a tight rope currently.  You could go either way. That's why the whole norms of winter are not norms of this winter so far. Ive seen a lot of the pattern will relaxe, or the pattern is ripe when truly we have been stuck in between both so far. 

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33 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! :snowwindow:

gfs_mslpa_us_14.png

gfs_mslpa_us_24.png

People are not going to like the snow maps or precip depictions but there’s a lot of potential showing up still. I think a CAD event, or multiple, seem probable in the coming period. 

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18z gfs is a dumpster fire.  Ridge holds over the east coast.  Who the hell knows whats going to happen

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10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

People are not going to like the snow maps or precip depictions but there’s a lot of potential showing up still. I think a CAD event, or multiple, seem probable in the coming period. 

That's worked so well for us here in the Triangle all winter.  Cold rain with some annoying mixing.  Rinse and repeat.

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2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Okay.  Which is it?  A dumpster fire or so many opportunities?  Or so many dumpster fire opportunities?

Pick the model of your choice!

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7 hours ago, BooneWX said:

The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data.

This is true. If they had all the data they would be inconsistent in a completely different way.

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2 minutes ago, Ghicks said:

I feel the best of winter is yet to come. Time will tell 

You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you?  I think you'll get a few more

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just going to leave this here.

1D93123E-C1F3-4146-A096-F6EA1DDECC56.gif

That would be me and my F250 hauling the cold back from Cincy on Friday.  Highs in the teens, lows below zero here on Friday.  I'll do my part for the forum but somebody else needs to figure out the QPF.  Still a chance for a Valentine's Day surprise!

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3 hours ago, Wow said:

18z gfs is a dumpster fire.  Ridge holds over the east coast.  Who the hell knows whats going to happen

18Z GEFS was also a bummer.  A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC .  The big cold was completely lost.  So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run.

That PV is driving me insane.

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18Z GEFS was also a bummer.  A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC .  The big cold was completely lost.  So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run.
That PV is driving me insane.
1052 over Montana

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, CaryWx said:

You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you?  I think you'll get a few more

I’ve had a couple of snow days so to say but only around 4 inches total. Now 30 min north of me and west they have had several inches so far. All about elevation I suppose 

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2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

No luck with that historic cold next week.  That’s some rare air and we won’t experience it.

According to which models at which times?

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3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The 00z GFS tonight isn’t looking so good.

635E76EA-8FE7-4595-A201-5B4A430F24E0.jpeg

That would be disappointing, concert in Brownsville TX than at RDU.  But the models seem to be completely unable to pin the PV down.  I wouldn't say we are out of the running yet.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

That would be disappointing, concert in Brownsville TX than at RDU.  But the models seem to be completely unable to pin the PV down.  I wouldn't say we are out of the running yet.

The model swings are nuts.  You’re right though.  It can swing back.

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The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead.

 

It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched

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