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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still...

PD2 storm back in 03 had a backdoor CAD front that was unreal. Started as Rain in the 40's and eventually turned into ZR and IP in the 20's.  It had a similar CAD setup with the Parent Arctic HP.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going 

Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range 

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I think the one common trend this winter has been to colder in the 3-5 day range (as the models pick up on the persistent blocking), but then things seem to more or less settle in within 72 hours.  I suspect most trending will be done by end of day tomorrow.  

Beyond 120 hours, we should just take the models as showing us a range of potential and nothing more.

TW

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