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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah the CMC/RGEM really looked intriguing...

 

I think the key to the end of the week storm is all about timing, which in most ways that's the big puzzle piece to getting any winter storm in the south. Both the Euro and Canadian have the CAD building in stronger throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. If the system would happen to slow down some and the cold air filter in a little quicker we might have a better chance. 

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There’s no doubt models are finally reaching a consensus now on the timing of the boundary coming through the SE.  the Euro and CMC are the latest but at least the models as a whole now are at least within a day of another and not 5 days 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Geez , this thing is trending colder quick!

Yep big chances today and they all started with RGEM. Lets see what it does in a little bit which might lead the way again for another shift south tonight. 

 

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It's been many years since we've had a true expansive Arctic HP over the Plains for days like the models are portraying. Could be a fun 10 days of tracking.

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Also one thing to note this is a wedge building in as moisture is arriving. Lately we have been wedged in waiting for the moisture and by the time it gets here the high is retreating. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

ICE STORM beginning per NAM , N NC S VA @ 78

Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still...

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still...

PD2 storm back in 03 had a backdoor CAD front that was unreal. Started as Rain in the 40's and eventually turned into ZR and IP in the 20's.  It had a similar CAD setup with the Parent Arctic HP.

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not typical of ice storms to start as plain rain and then drop below freezing (31 in the triad). Part of it's the dry airmass, but still...

Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

What's the next run, Happy Hour GFS?

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

18z RGEM will be out soon

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Doesn't take much, let's see if the guidance keeps the trend going 

Think over the last week we’ve wobbled back and forth talking about trends that just ended up being head fakes. This feels like an actual trend today. Not to mention this isn’t day 7 we’re talking about... let’s see where it takes us over the next few cycles. Nothing seems to point to the trend stopping as of yet, and CAD is the one aspect of winter weather here that is frequently under modeled at range 

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I think the one common trend this winter has been to colder in the 3-5 day range (as the models pick up on the persistent blocking), but then things seem to more or less settle in within 72 hours.  I suspect most trending will be done by end of day tomorrow.  

Beyond 120 hours, we should just take the models as showing us a range of potential and nothing more.

TW

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