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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems everything has moved up a bit, also as you stated yesterday , I forget the exact specifics , colder versus warmer outcomes the last few days in the modeling may be the trend.  

If there was any time for a marginal airmass victory it’s January.  

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45 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC gives us a much better chance next week than the GFS.

Why do people keep wanting to get rid of something WE NEED!!!!  This is the composite of Baltimore’s 10 snowiest months. 
5HOPMwN.png

look at the gulf of AK!!!!  A vortex there promotes ridging into western N America. We want the ridge axis out west near Boise or up in the Yukon if it’s a high lat epo ridge. NOT off the west coast!!!!  If you get a ridge off the west coast you get a trough axis too far west and a SE ridge pops!!!   Yes if that pac vortex crashes in at times it will flood pac puke but so long as it’s off the coast it’s ok. It’s actually good. It promotes some PNA ridge. I know it doesn’t show well there because you get so many waves crashing in that it washes out the ridging you get in between but all you need is to time up that temporary ridge with a wave in the east. We want all those pac waves crashing in...those end up our storms!  No it’s not a cold pattern. But our big snowstorm patterns usually aren’t.  The vast majority of our big snowstorms were with patterns that weren’t particularly cold and absent the storm might have even been fairly mild!  
 

Lastly some of our worst blocking fails came because there was no trough in the N PAC and so the trough over the US ended up too far west. Yes a HUGE ridge up through Ak can dump arctic air into N America but it’s more often then not going to be directed into the west and any storm that phases and bombs will cut west of us. 
 

I am sorry if I seem frustrated but this is like the 10th post seeming to suggest we need to have what is literally our BEST snow pattern mutate into a pattern that historically is colder but normally leads to cutters. What do we want here arctic cold or snow because our perfect pattern is NOT the same for those 2 things!  Our coldest outbreaks often do not feature a big snowstorm. Most of our big HECS storms do not feature any true cold. 

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33 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic.  995 low in a great spot.... Why is that?

Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield. 

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47 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a great looking MSLP on the gfs but the actual precip is surprisingly anemic.  995 low in a great spot.... Why is that?

Trough goes negative slightly too late. If we had that northern energy start to drop South a bit sooner or if the shortwave negatively tilted a bit sooner would have been nice. 
 

with bowling ball events like this the models are going to have an extremely tough time. I wouldn’t worry one way or another until we get it to 96 hours...

better news is both cmc and gfs have really good patterns after this one on today’s runs. 

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7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

If only it was a decent model. 

It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue.  

Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores?

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. 

0B94F1BB-9DDD-47EF-8DF0-372BB791B36C.gif

Looks like UKMET  fixed last nights euro run.  Similar with the southern stream, but keeps the high a lot further west.

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13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Doesn't it compete with GFS for second place with general verification scores?

Lately when I’ve seen verification charts it seems to be consistently doing better then the GFS. GFS has really be a train wreck lately.  And the CMC has significantly improved since its upgrade. Anecdotally the para gfs seems like a significant upgrade. Perhaps the GFS retakes its place as on of the elite NWP guidance after the upgrade but honestly lately I’ve gotten to the point where I barely pay it any attention anymore. It gets about the same weight as the JMA or ICON. 
 

ETA: I see Wxusaf ninja’d me 

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52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Because it’s basically a cutoff low. No northern stream involvement like the GGEM, so it’s just a bowling ball rolling across. This also means no CCB development so a very anemic precip shield. 

Who has “anemic”on their This Winter Sucks bingo card?

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not the joke it used to be. I know it teased a south solution in mid Dec but it still caught on way before the GFS. And it was the first model to catch that crazy deform band that ended up giving places 40”. Yes it was too far south with it but it depicted that feature for days when other guidance had no clue.  

Yeah it had us with like 12" snow and we ended up with 2" rain.  I'll take the CMC more seriously when it scores a coup someday.  $10 is better than $5 but it's still nothing to brag about. 

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19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Yeah it had us with like 12" snow and we ended up with 2" rain.  I'll take the CMC more seriously when it scores a coup someday.  $10 is better than $5 but it's still nothing to brag about. 

It still did better then the GFS. Euro was by far the best global but the CMC was second. GFS was awful. 

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Well @Amped will love the day 16 GEPS 

6C3DB1A2-6068-447C-9094-C49C2B040508.thumb.png.4fb36174c92f3dfa4a0cff9402a0b40b.png
that is a great look if you want brutal cold and dry. It’s not nearly as good a look for a big snowstorm  though.  The SE ridge is just starting to pop there...it’s likely to get worse in future times as the trough pulls west some. Look at SLP anomalies, it’s a miller b pattern.  The STJ is totally cut off there. That’s a look where we are cold and wait through day and day of bone dry model runs frustratedly saying “where did all the storms go now that we got the cold”. Sound familiar?  
3988A418-E09D-4E85-B554-D158F63D4048.thumb.png.45f8f190633e725e927f410ba09fd4a9.png
That is a cold dry look there. It’s not the worst, we could luck into something. It’s better then anything we had last year. But it’s not nearly as good a big snowstorm look. I guess if you want the pond in your yard to freeze over it’s drool worthy!  
 

And I am NOT even saying that’s coming. It’s on an island with that look. I’m just pointing out if we want a big snowstorm that isn’t the look we want. If you just want really cold and maybe some minor nickel and dime stuff I guess that’s the look you want. 

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