MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went even more east. Would definitely an outlier in its 6z ensembles, but not sure that matters. 

Still get 2" from the initial thump, even in the city. Better measure it before the rain begins to really ramp up.

Euro went East or west?

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Yeah, WAA thump looks better for most of us.  A lot like the mesoscale models.  But then rain and not much after it pulls away because it's too far northeast.  

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Just now, AdamHLG said:

I hate to say it but deep down I think we all know where this is headed.  We just don't want to accept it.

Just trying to stay positive for my fellow weenies closer to the coast. Although, I’m starting to feel a little uneasy about a sleet / FRZ RN fest up here as well if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon 

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Next (For DC)....If you're west enough it is a pretty sound thumping...better than 6z

Been thinking maybe 1-3 and then slop for a couple days now. Still thinking that way (at least for me in NW).

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Just now, A777 said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

image.png

I am still thinking the true LP positioning is going to end up over the DE bay where the other closed isobar is. Euro does do what the GFS looked to do and wrap the cold air in with a quicker change in wind direction to get rid of the SE winds. Provided we had a decent track, this would be a good run, but re PSU's thoughts earlier, further west is never what we want to see. 

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5 minutes ago, A777 said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

image.png

LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night.

I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night.

I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them.

huh? 

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Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Do these maps ever verify????

I was gonna share a similar sentiment...If you ask me these things need to wither be retired or redone to spit out more reasonable solutions. Not saying I believe snow depth maps much...but needless to say they create a confusing illusion for some. It's like constantly overdone maps with ridiculous totals.

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night.

I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them.

It's disappointing, but no guidance gives you and I nothing.  I'd say you still have a pretty decent chance at WSW verification.  Much less chance for me.  

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I leave for an hour and the whole thread gets shut down. euro must have been terrible. 

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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

I leave for an hour and the whole thread gets shut down. euro must have been terrible. 

Actually I think you'd take the euro and run.  

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Actually I think you'd take the euro and run.  

I checked after I got out of a meeting. Wasn't the worst. Better than the NAM

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